Claudio Cioffi-Revilla
Biographic Data
| ID | 99581 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Claudio Cioffi-Revilla |
| GIVEN NAMES | Claudio |
| FAMILY NAME | Cioffi-Revilla |
| SIGNATURE | CIOFFI-REVILLA C |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Colorado Boulder |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 35 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 140 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 34 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1983 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2021 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
The scope of computational social science
Computational social science (CSS) is a field that integrates the study of humans and groups at all scales through the formal methodology of computational and mathematical models. Its purpose is to advance scientific understanding of social phenomena using computation both as a conceptual and theoretical paradigm, based on information processing, and as a methodological tool. Recently, a restrictive version of CSS has been proposed, driven by “bi…
An Agent-Based Model of Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change
Future climate change is expected to have greater impacts on societies whose livelihoods rely on subsistence agricultural systems. Adaptation is essential for mitigating adverse e ects of climate change, to sustain rural livelihoods and ensure future food security. We present an agent-based model, called OMOLAND-CA, which explores the impact of climate change on the adaptive capacity of rural communities in the South Omo Zone of Ethiopia. The pur…
Computation and Social Science
Introduction to Computational Social Science
Agent-Based Computational Modeling and International Relations Theory: Quo Vadis
Agent-based computational modeling (ABM, for short) is a formal and supplementary methodological approach used in international relations (IR) theory and research, based on the general ABM paradigm and computational methodology as applied to IR phenomena. ABM of such phenomena varies according to three fundamental dimensions: scale of organization —spanning foreign policy, international relations, regional systems, and global politics—as well as …
Bigger Computational Social Science: Data, Theories, Models, and Simulations -- Not Just Big Data
Activation Regimes in Opinion Dynamics: Comparing Asynchronous Updating Schemes
Activation Regimes in Opinion Dynamics: Comparing Asynchronous Updating Schemes
Empirical evidences have supported the large heterogeneity in the timing of individuals' activities. Moreover, computational analysis of the agent-based models has shown the importance of the activation regimes. In this paper, we apply four different asynchronous updating schemes including random, uniform, and two state-driven Poisson updating schemes on an agent-based opinion dynamics model. We compare the effect of these activation regimes by m…
Intergroup Conflict Escalation Leads to More Extremism
Empirical findings in intergroup conflict literature show that individuals that hold beliefs that include differentiation from out-groups become radicalized as intergroup tensions escalate. They also show that this differentiation is proportional to tension escalation. In this paper, we present and demonstrate an agent-based model that captures these findings to better understand the effect of perceived intergroup conflict escalation on the avera…
Introduction to Computational Social Science: Principles and Applications
Manifesto de Ciência Social Computacional
A crescente integração da tecnologia em nossas vidas criou volumes sem precedentes de dados sobre o comportamento cotidiano da sociedade. Esses dados abrem novas oportunidades para se trabalhar em direção a um entendimento quantitativo dos sistemas sociais complexos, no âmbito de uma nova disciplina conhecida como Ciência Social Computacional. Num contexto de crises financeiras, revoltas e epidemias internacionais, fica clara a urgente necessidad…
Comparing Agent-Based Computational Simulation Models in Cross-Cultural Research
Mel Ember was co-Principal Investigator in the Mason-HRAF Joint Project on Eastern Africa, a multiyear project aimed at developing and analyzing advanced computational agent-based models of human societies across 10 countries and 12 ecosystems. A major unsolved challenge in this kind of social science research is to devise a systematic way to compare, contrast, and communicate different models of social dynamics along relevant dimensions and char…
Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena
Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena: The Second World Congress
A Methodology for Complex Social Simulations
Computational Social Science
Mason RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency
Social simulation models from computational social science are beginning to provide significant advances in terms of implementing more complex social, human, and natural dynamics that are characteristic of how countries operate in the real world. In particular, increasingly realistic agent-based models can improve capacity for early warning, understanding, and prediction. The MASON RebeLand model presents three innovations over earlier models: (i…
A Methodology for Complex Social Simulations
Social simulation — an emerging field of computational social science — has progressed from simple toy models to increasingly realistic models of complex social systems, such as agent-based models where heterogeneous agents interact with changing natural or artificial environments. These larger, multidisciplinary projects require a scientific research methodology distinct from, say, simpler social simulations with more limited scope, intentionall…
Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior: Attacks in Diyala Province, Iraq, 2002–2006
Uncertainty is a hallmark of conflict behavior, and other forms of violence that accompany civil and international war—such as low-intensity warfare, guerrilla, insurgency, and asymmetric conflict—are no exception. This study applied the theory of political uncertainty and complexity theory to the analysis of conflict events during the first three years of the second Iraq war, 2003–2006, limited to the Diyala province. Findings show that neither …
A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Social Complexity
The puzzle of origins and future of government and social complexity in human and social dynamics, arguably a characteristic feature of the emergence and long-term evolution of hierarchy and power in the history of civilizations, is an enduring topic that has challenged political scientists, anthropological archaeologists, and other social scientists and historians. This paper proposes a new computational theory for the emergence of social comple…
Invariance and Universality in Social Agent-Based Simulations
Origins and Age of Deterrence: Comparative Research on Old World and New World Systems
Is deterrence a recent or ancient phenomenon? Long-range analysis from political science, supported by key advances in archaeology and epigraphy, now permit social scientists to measure and compare systematically the ancient origins of deterrence as a strategy of defense. The data reported in this article, based directly on primary sources, demonstrate that deterrence is at least thousands of years old and was invented independently in the Old Wo…
Evolution of Maya Polities in the Ancient Mesoamerican System
The analysis of politics in antiquity presents new opportunities for political science and international relations, particularly the ancient New World (c. 2000 B.C. to A.D. 1521). Governance through leadership and institutions, collective action, war and peace, alliance dynamics, regional hegemonies, interstate rivalries, and other universal patterns of world politics existed in Meso-America, antedating the modern state system. We report findings…
Origins and Evolution of War and Politics
This is a progress report of The Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) Project, an ongoing investigation on the earliest origins and evolution of warfare and politics. Using multidisciplinary sources (archaeology, epigraphy, ethnology) and new coding procedures (integrated historical reconstruction), thus far approximately 2,300 wars have been recorded in the pilot datasets, indicating a tentatively lower onset rate (≈ 0.2 wars/year) than for the …
War And Politics in Ancient China, 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C: Measurement and Comparative Analysis
The authors report the first findings on the origins and evolution of war and politics in ancient China (Legendary, Xia [Hsia], Shang, and Western Zhou [Chou] periods), from ca. 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C. The main findings are as follows: (1) warfare in China began, at the latest, by 2193 B.C. (first historical Chinese civil war) or 2146 B.C. (first interstate war), more than 4,000 years ago, and has continued unabated; (2) warfare patterns varied sig…
The Political Reliability of Italian Governments: An Exponential Survival Model
Italian cabinets (governi) fall from power in a seemingly haphazard pattern, thus defying most deterministic analyses of their durability. This analysis views Italian government longevity as essentially indeterminate, or stochastic, and it applies the theory of "political reliability" to explain the probability that an Italian government will be in power at time t after it was formed. An exponential survival model R = e−kt, with constant governme…
Opportunity, Willingness and Political Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations of Politics
Political behavior - social events and processes concerning the governance and life of a collectivity, whether domestic or international - is caused by two fundamental, necessary conditions: the operational opportunity to act and the willingness to do so. We also assume that both conditions always occur with multiple, substitutable, and uncertain modes (probabilistically) not with certainty (deterministically). We develop foundations for a formal…
On the Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War
Results from this study conducted in November 1990 at the Long-Range Analysis of War Project, University of Colorado, predict that the magnitude μ of a war between Iraq and the United Nations collective security coalition will be between 5 (hundred thousand combatant fatalities) and 6- (low million). War magnitude is defined as the common logarithm of total combatant fatalities. This falsifiable forecast (“an event 5 ≤μ≤ 6- will occur”) was deriv…
Origins and Evolution of War and Politics
This is a progress report of The Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) Project, an ongoing investigation on the earliest origins and evolution of warfare and politics. Using multidisciplinary sources (archaeology, epigraphy, ethnology) and new coding procedures (integrated historical reconstruction), thus far approximately 2,300 wars have been recorded in the pilot datasets, indicating a tentatively lower onset rate (≈ 0.2 wars/year) than for the …
A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Social Complexity
The puzzle of origins and future of government and social complexity in human and social dynamics, arguably a characteristic feature of the emergence and long-term evolution of hierarchy and power in the history of civilizations, is an enduring topic that has challenged political scientists, anthropological archaeologists, and other social scientists and historians. This paper proposes a new computational theory for the emergence of social comple…
Evolution of Maya Polities in the Ancient Mesoamerican System
The analysis of politics in antiquity presents new opportunities for political science and international relations, particularly the ancient New World (c. 2000 B.C. to A.D. 1521). Governance through leadership and institutions, collective action, war and peace, alliance dynamics, regional hegemonies, interstate rivalries, and other universal patterns of world politics existed in Meso-America, antedating the modern state system. We report findings…
The Long-Range Analysis of War
The Long-Range Analysis of War War is a lethal social phenomenon dating from c 8000 B.C.' The Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) project began in 1988 at the University of Colorado, Boulder, to develop a new global understanding of war and peace in recorded history. LORANOW is an interdisciplinary research program based on historical data sets, mathematical models, and microcomputation to examine longrange (LR), cross-societal patterns of war a…
A Probability Model of Credibility: Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Systems
Credibility plays a central role in the classical theory of strategic nuclear deterrence, as well as in many types of social and international relations. This article presents probability models of credibility for survival-retaliation, Wohlstetter-type, and generalized “chain” deterrent threats. Both scenario and systems analysis of these models indicate that (1) only moderate credibility occurs even when very high levels of performance are insur…
Intergroup Conflict Escalation Leads to More Extremism
Empirical findings in intergroup conflict literature show that individuals that hold beliefs that include differentiation from out-groups become radicalized as intergroup tensions escalate. They also show that this differentiation is proportional to tension escalation. In this paper, we present and demonstrate an agent-based model that captures these findings to better understand the effect of perceived intergroup conflict escalation on the avera…
Mason RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency
Social simulation models from computational social science are beginning to provide significant advances in terms of implementing more complex social, human, and natural dynamics that are characteristic of how countries operate in the real world. In particular, increasingly realistic agent-based models can improve capacity for early warning, understanding, and prediction. The MASON RebeLand model presents three innovations over earlier models: (i…
A Methodology for Complex Social Simulations
Social simulation — an emerging field of computational social science — has progressed from simple toy models to increasingly realistic models of complex social systems, such as agent-based models where heterogeneous agents interact with changing natural or artificial environments. These larger, multidisciplinary projects require a scientific research methodology distinct from, say, simpler social simulations with more limited scope, intentionall…
Political Reliability Theory and War in the International System
Political reliability theory views war as a breakdown in international peace and security, caused by numerous time-varying political forces acting on the international system from one onset to the next. First, the Poisson law of onsets of war is derived from substantive assumptions in political reliability theory, thereby proposing a political explanation for the established but previously unexplained law. Second, earlier findings (viz., onsets o…
Origins and Age of Deterrence: Comparative Research on Old World and New World Systems
Is deterrence a recent or ancient phenomenon? Long-range analysis from political science, supported by key advances in archaeology and epigraphy, now permit social scientists to measure and compare systematically the ancient origins of deterrence as a strategy of defense. The data reported in this article, based directly on primary sources, demonstrate that deterrence is at least thousands of years old and was invented independently in the Old Wo…
Activation Regimes in Opinion Dynamics: Comparing Asynchronous Updating Schemes
Empirical evidences have supported the large heterogeneity in the timing of individuals' activities. Moreover, computational analysis of the agent-based models has shown the importance of the activation regimes. In this paper, we apply four different asynchronous updating schemes including random, uniform, and two state-driven Poisson updating schemes on an agent-based opinion dynamics model. We compare the effect of these activation regimes by m…
Response to Moul's Comments on “The Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War”
Moul's comments on my accurate forecast of the magnitude of the Iraq-UN War (Cioffi-Revilla 1991a), an event 5.0 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6- will occur (p. 389), comments written more than 2 years after the referent events and my forecast of those events, deserve close scientific scrutiny. Although on the surface his comments seem engaging and challenging, and indeed some analysts may choose to agree philosophically with Moul, in the end I have decided to r…
Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior: Attacks in Diyala Province, Iraq, 2002–2006
Uncertainty is a hallmark of conflict behavior, and other forms of violence that accompany civil and international war—such as low-intensity warfare, guerrilla, insurgency, and asymmetric conflict—are no exception. This study applied the theory of political uncertainty and complexity theory to the analysis of conflict events during the first three years of the second Iraq war, 2003–2006, limited to the Diyala province. Findings show that neither …
European Political Cooperation: An Application of Political Reliability Theory to Integration
European Political Cooperation (EPC) denotes the foreign policy integration among members of the European Economic Community (EEC). The extent of political cooperative integration is analyzed by focusing upon the 'political reliability' or probability that EPC events reflect a consistent pattern of integration rather than merely an increasing frequency of interaction. A positive theory of EPC is built from first assumptions about unobservable int…
A Probability Model of Credibility: Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Systems
Credibility plays a central role in the classical theory of strategic nuclear deterrence, as well as in many types of social and international relations. This article presents probability models of credibility for survival-retaliation, Wohlstetter-type, and generalized “chain” deterrent threats. Both scenario and systems analysis of these models indicate that (1) only moderate credibility occurs even when very high levels of performance are insur…
European Political Cooperation: An Application of Political Reliability Theory to Integration
European Political Cooperation (EPC) denotes the foreign policy integration among members of the European Economic Community (EEC). The extent of political cooperative integration is analyzed by focusing upon the 'political reliability' or probability that EPC events reflect a consistent pattern of integration rather than merely an increasing frequency of interaction. A positive theory of EPC is built from first assumptions about unobservable int…
The Political Reliability of Italian Governments: An Exponential Survival Model
Italian cabinets (governi) fall from power in a seemingly haphazard pattern, thus defying most deterministic analyses of their durability. This analysis views Italian government longevity as essentially indeterminate, or stochastic, and it applies the theory of "political reliability" to explain the probability that an Italian government will be in power at time t after it was formed. An exponential survival model R = e−kt, with constant governme…
Political Reliability Theory and War in the International System
Political reliability theory views war as a breakdown in international peace and security, caused by numerous time-varying political forces acting on the international system from one onset to the next. First, the Poisson law of onsets of war is derived from substantive assumptions in political reliability theory, thereby proposing a political explanation for the established but previously unexplained law. Second, earlier findings (viz., onsets o…
The probability of war in then-crises problem: Modeling new alternatives to Wright's solution
The Scientific Measurement of International Conflict: Handbook of Datasets on Crises and Wars, 1495-1988 A.D
The first detailed compendium of the eight major international-conflict datasets of the Data Development for International Relations Project
On the Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War
Results from this study conducted in November 1990 at the Long-Range Analysis of War Project, University of Colorado, predict that the magnitude μ of a war between Iraq and the United Nations collective security coalition will be between 5 (hundred thousand combatant fatalities) and 6- (low million). War magnitude is defined as the common logarithm of total combatant fatalities. This falsifiable forecast (“an event 5 ≤μ≤ 6- will occur”) was deriv…
The Long-Range Analysis of War
The Long-Range Analysis of War War is a lethal social phenomenon dating from c 8000 B.C.' The Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) project began in 1988 at the University of Colorado, Boulder, to develop a new global understanding of war and peace in recorded history. LORANOW is an interdisciplinary research program based on historical data sets, mathematical models, and microcomputation to examine longrange (LR), cross-societal patterns of war a…
Response to Moul's Comments on “The Likely Magnitude, Extent, and Duration of an Iraq-UN War”
Moul's comments on my accurate forecast of the magnitude of the Iraq-UN War (Cioffi-Revilla 1991a), an event 5.0 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6- will occur (p. 389), comments written more than 2 years after the referent events and my forecast of those events, deserve close scientific scrutiny. Although on the surface his comments seem engaging and challenging, and indeed some analysts may choose to agree philosophically with Moul, in the end I have decided to r…
War And Politics in Ancient China, 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C: Measurement and Comparative Analysis
The authors report the first findings on the origins and evolution of war and politics in ancient China (Legendary, Xia [Hsia], Shang, and Western Zhou [Chou] periods), from ca. 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C. The main findings are as follows: (1) warfare in China began, at the latest, by 2193 B.C. (first historical Chinese civil war) or 2146 B.C. (first interstate war), more than 4,000 years ago, and has continued unabated; (2) warfare patterns varied sig…
Opportunity, Willingness and Political Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations of Politics
Political behavior - social events and processes concerning the governance and life of a collectivity, whether domestic or international - is caused by two fundamental, necessary conditions: the operational opportunity to act and the willingness to do so. We also assume that both conditions always occur with multiple, substitutable, and uncertain modes (probabilistically) not with certainty (deterministically). We develop foundations for a formal…
Origins and Evolution of War and Politics
This is a progress report of The Long-Range Analysis of War (LORANOW) Project, an ongoing investigation on the earliest origins and evolution of warfare and politics. Using multidisciplinary sources (archaeology, epigraphy, ethnology) and new coding procedures (integrated historical reconstruction), thus far approximately 2,300 wars have been recorded in the pilot datasets, indicating a tentatively lower onset rate (≈ 0.2 wars/year) than for the …
Origins and Age of Deterrence: Comparative Research on Old World and New World Systems
Is deterrence a recent or ancient phenomenon? Long-range analysis from political science, supported by key advances in archaeology and epigraphy, now permit social scientists to measure and compare systematically the ancient origins of deterrence as a strategy of defense. The data reported in this article, based directly on primary sources, demonstrate that deterrence is at least thousands of years old and was invented independently in the Old Wo…
Evolution of Maya Polities in the Ancient Mesoamerican System
The analysis of politics in antiquity presents new opportunities for political science and international relations, particularly the ancient New World (c. 2000 B.C. to A.D. 1521). Governance through leadership and institutions, collective action, war and peace, alliance dynamics, regional hegemonies, interstate rivalries, and other universal patterns of world politics existed in Meso-America, antedating the modern state system. We report findings…
Invariance and Universality in Social Agent-Based Simulations
A Canonical Theory of Origins and Development of Social Complexity
The puzzle of origins and future of government and social complexity in human and social dynamics, arguably a characteristic feature of the emergence and long-term evolution of hierarchy and power in the history of civilizations, is an enduring topic that has challenged political scientists, anthropological archaeologists, and other social scientists and historians. This paper proposes a new computational theory for the emergence of social comple…
Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior: Attacks in Diyala Province, Iraq, 2002–2006
Uncertainty is a hallmark of conflict behavior, and other forms of violence that accompany civil and international war—such as low-intensity warfare, guerrilla, insurgency, and asymmetric conflict—are no exception. This study applied the theory of political uncertainty and complexity theory to the analysis of conflict events during the first three years of the second Iraq war, 2003–2006, limited to the Diyala province. Findings show that neither …
Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena
Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena: The Second World Congress
A Methodology for Complex Social Simulations
Computational Social Science
Mason RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency
Social simulation models from computational social science are beginning to provide significant advances in terms of implementing more complex social, human, and natural dynamics that are characteristic of how countries operate in the real world. In particular, increasingly realistic agent-based models can improve capacity for early warning, understanding, and prediction. The MASON RebeLand model presents three innovations over earlier models: (i…
A Methodology for Complex Social Simulations
Social simulation — an emerging field of computational social science — has progressed from simple toy models to increasingly realistic models of complex social systems, such as agent-based models where heterogeneous agents interact with changing natural or artificial environments. These larger, multidisciplinary projects require a scientific research methodology distinct from, say, simpler social simulations with more limited scope, intentionall…
Comparing Agent-Based Computational Simulation Models in Cross-Cultural Research
Mel Ember was co-Principal Investigator in the Mason-HRAF Joint Project on Eastern Africa, a multiyear project aimed at developing and analyzing advanced computational agent-based models of human societies across 10 countries and 12 ecosystems. A major unsolved challenge in this kind of social science research is to devise a systematic way to compare, contrast, and communicate different models of social dynamics along relevant dimensions and char…
Introduction to Computational Social Science: Principles and Applications
Political science (21 works) · Computer Science (19 works) · Law (17 works) · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence (15 works) · Law (14 works) · Politics (12 works) · Sociology (11 works) · Artificial Intelligence (9 works) · Economics (9 works) · Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation (9 works)