Hedging for Better Bets

Power Shifts, Credible Signals, and Preventive Conflict

Bibliographic Data

ID6286006
AuthorsBrandon K Yoder (0000-0001-8815-8854, National University of Singapore, corresponding author)
Year2019
Volume63
Issue4
Pages923-949
Publication date2019-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002718772349
OpenAlexW2802602867
LanguageEN
Citations received21
References cited40

How can declining states reliably infer the intentions of rising states? One prominent line of argument maintains that because declining states face intractable uncertainty about rising states’ future intentions, preventive war is often unavoidable even between states with truly compatible goals. This article presents a dynamic model of reassurance in which actors are uncertain whether or not their interests conflict. The model shows that by adopting a hedging strategy of limited containment short of war, declining states can reduce risers’ incentives to send dishonest cooperative signals. This, in turn, makes cooperation more credible as a signal of risers’ benign intentions. Moreover, these signals are sufficiently informative to dissuade the decliner from escalating to preventive war even under large power shifts. Thus, although power shifts promote limited competition among states with compatible goals, preventive war rationally occurs only in a bargaining context when the riser’s goals are known to be incompatible

Argument (complex analysis · Bargaining power · Competition (biology · Context (archaeology · Economics · Face (sociological concept · Incentive · Microeconomics · Political economy · Political science · Power (physics · Sociology · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Political Conflict and Governance