Delayed shock? How Brexit conditioned campaign effects in British general elections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6315786 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Justin Fisher (0000-0002-3527-9422, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK, corresponding author), Edward Fieldhouse (0000-0002-7533-1475, University of Manchester), David Cutts (0000-0002-3921-7405, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 606-621 |
| Publication date | 2024-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Party Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/13540688231168583 |
| OpenAlex | W4378835048 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 33 |
The impact of campaigns on electoral performance is conditioned in part by contextual effects. The popularity equilibrium model has proven to be an important guide to how the electoral effects of local campaigns vary by a party’s existing level of popularity. Such an equilibrium can, however be disturbed by an electoral shock—a rare event which fundamentally challenges the foundations that underpin predictability in elections. This article analyses the impact of the electoral shock of the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership on campaign effects in the subsequent elections of 2017 and 2019. Using a novel theoretical and methodological approach, it shows that while there were observable effects of the Leave vote already present before the referendum, the geography of the effectiveness of Labour and Conservative local campaigns was altered after the referendum. However, it was not until the 2019 election that the shock of the 2016 Leave vote became a particularly important predictor of the electoral efficacy of both parties’ campaigns
Brexit · Economics · European union · General election · International economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Predictability · Referendum · Shock (circulatory · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Policy and Reform Studies
Volatile campaigns? The effects of shocks on campaign effectiveness in British general elections
Innocent Bystanders or the Forgotten Actors? The Role of Parties and Candidates in Building Electoral Campaign Momentum
War in the campaign? Issue emphasis and issue salience during the 2022 French presidential campaign
Post-modern asset or misfiring problem? The UK Conservative Party’s constituency election campaign, 1997–2024
Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions
Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
Bayes Factors
Estimating the Dimension of a Model
Critical Elections
Brexit and British Politics
Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research
The electoral impact of grassroots activity in the 2012 local elections in Flanders
Small kingdoms and crumbling organizations
Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of Ukip
Why bother campaigning? Campaign effectiveness in the 2009 European Parliament elections
Campaign Effects and the Dynamics of Turnout Intention in Election 2000
The Impact of Electoral Context on the Electoral Effectiveness of District-Level Campaigning
When Context Matters
The Limits of Mobilization
Party Membership and Campaign Activity in Britain
Popularity equilibrium
Comparative Party Finance Reform
We Didn’t See it Coming
Why Britain Voted for Brexit
From Minority Government to Parliamentary Stalemate
Who Is Mobilized to Vote? A Re‐Analysis of 11 Field Experiments
Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks
Candidate centred campaigning in a party centred context
Do local campaigns matter? Campaign spending, the local canvass and party support in Canada
Winning over voters or fighting party comrades? Personalized constituency campaigning in Austria
The electoral effectiveness of constituency campaigning in the 2010 British general election
Do constituency candidates matter in German Federal Elections? The personal vote as an interactive process
The limits of partisan loyalty
Constituency candidates in comparative perspective - How personalized are constituency campaigns, why, and does it matter
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |