Beyond the distinction between incumbency and opposition

Retrospective voting at the level of political parties

Bibliographic Data

ID6316142
AuthorsDieter Stiers (0000-0001-7242-8477, Centre for Political Science Research, Belgium, corresponding author)
Year2019
Volume25
Issue6
Pages805-816
Publication date2019-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueParty Politics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/1354068817744201
OpenAlexW2982301025
LanguageEN
Citations received17
References cited47

Retrospective voting is one of the most frequently investigated theories of voting behaviour. It postulates that voters punish or reward incumbent parties according to their performance. This approach, however, cannot explain why voters cast a stable opposition vote, or switch between incumbent parties or opposition parties, respectively. This study fills this gap by showing that this traditional view should be complemented with the approach of retrospective voting to work at the level of political parties – irrespective of their incumbency status. Using the data of the second module of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, it provides the first large-scale test of this new perspective on electoral accountability. The results show that satisfaction with the previously endorsed party is an important determinant of the current party choice, and that it is so for voters for all parties alike. These results provide a theoretical foundation for party switches that could not be explained by the traditional model

Accountability · Disapproval voting · Economics · Opposition (politics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Split-ticket voting · Survey data collection · Voting · Voting behavior · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Media and Politics

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