Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

Reassessing the gap-hypothesis

Tough talk and weak action in migration policy

Bibliographic Data

ID6316342
AuthorsPhilipp Lutz (0000-0003-2373-0180, University of Bern, corresponding author)
Year2021
Volume27
Issue1
Pages174-186
Publication date2021-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueParty Politics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/1354068819840776
OpenAlexW2941069610
LanguageEN
Citations received16
References cited52

Much of the literature on migration policy has proclaimed a gap between what parties say and what parties do. The “gap-hypothesis” expects political parties to deliver “tough talk” and “weak action” on the issue of migration. This article tests this idea empirically by asking whether political parties keep their electoral promises on migration policy. The analysis of governments across 18 West European countries between 1980 and 2014 makes use of a new cabinet-based data set of migration policy outputs and two different data sets measuring parties’ preferences on migration. The results show that governing parties enact systematically more liberal policies on immigration and integration than their electoral manifestos would suggest. The purported democratic deficit in migration policy is substantially the result of a limited fulfillment of the electoral mandate by governing parties. Nevertheless, governing parties act upon their electoral mandate dependent on the governing constraints and the electoral incentives. Overall, governments tend to deliver on their integration policy positions but not on their immigration policy positions. The manifesto–policy link is stronger in the domestic policy dimension where governments face fewer external constraints

Democracy · Economics · Immigration · Immigration policy · Incentive · Mandate · Manifesto · Market economy · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Redistribution (election · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Migration, Refugees, and Integration · Populism, Right-Wing Movements

  • Folding Arms Behind Open Doors

    Open Access•Marta Pachocka, Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak et al.•Studia Migracyjne – Przegląd…•2025

  • Seeing Divides

    Open Access•Philipp Lutz, Serena Doe et al.•Political Behavior•2026

  • Technocracy Revisited

    Open Access•Marta Jaroszewicz, Jan Grzymski•Journal of Contemporary European…•2021

  • An Indicator-Based Approach to Comparative Policy Analysis

    Open Access•Francesco Pasetti, Catherine Xhardez et al.•Journal of Comparative Policy…•2024

  • Detecting anticipatory design strategies

    Marco Di Giulio, Stella Gianfreda•Journal of European Public Policy•2022

  • Immigration policy congruence and political trust

    Open Access•Stephan Simon•Acta Politica•2024

  • Welfare Pluralism and a Policy Window in Refugee Policies

    Open Access•Renata Stefańska, Aleksandra Grzymała-Kazłowska et al.•Journal of International…•2025

  • Exploring Europe’s external migration policy mix

    Open Access•Mathias Czaika, Marta Bivand Erdal et al.•New Community•2023

  • Misperceptions about Immigration

    Open Access•Philipp Lutz, Marco Bitschnau•British Journal of Political…•2023

  • To What Extent Does Asylum Policy Match Public Policy Preferences

    Open Access•Tiphaine Le Corre, James Tilley•International Migration Review•2026

  • Do EU policies constrain government autonomy? Insights from the implementation of EU migration policies

    Open Access•Asya Zhelyazkova•West European Politics•2024

  • Policy proximity and candidate repositioning

    Open Access•Anthony Gooch•Politics•2025

  • Do Parties Matter for Environmental Policy Stringency? Exploring the Program-to-Policy Link for Environmental Issues in 28 Countries 1990–2015

    Open Access•Staffan Lundquist•Political Studies•2024

  • Does mainstream populism work? Populist rhetoric and the electoral fortunes of mainstream parties

    Open Access•Markus Kollberg•Political Science Research and…•2025

  • Policy issue salience and legislative output of populist governments

    Open Access•Tobias Böhmelt, Lawrence Ezrow•Journal of European Public Policy•2024

  • The politics of migration policy implementation in Ghana

    Open Access•C Talleraas•Governance•2025

  • Immigration and Politics in the New Europe

    Open Access•Gallya Lahav•Immigration and Politics in the…•2004

  • The Politicisation of Migration

    G D' Amato, J id_orcid Berkhout et al.•The Politicisation of Migration•2015

  • Political Parties and Hard Choices

    Open Access•Kaare W Strøm, Kaare Strom et al.•Policy, Office, or Votes?•1999

  • An economic theory of democracy

    Anthony Downs•An economic theory of democracy•1985

  • Veto Players

    George Tsebelis•Veto Players•2002

  • Parties and Democracy

    Ian Budge, Hans Keman•Parties and Democracy•1993

  • The Politics of Switzerland

    Open Access•Hanspeter Kriesi, Alexander H Trechsel•Politics of Switzerland•2008

  • Quiet Politics and Business Power

    Open Access•P D Culpepper•Quiet Politics and Business Power•2010

  • Immigration and Public Opinion in Liberal Democracies

    Gary P Freeman, Russell Hansen et al.•Immigration and public opinion in…•2013

  • Controlling Immigration

    James F Hollifield, James Hollifield et al.•Controlling Immigration: A Global…•2020

  • Conceptualizing and measuring migration policy change

    Open Access•Hein De Haas, Katharina Natter et al.•Comparative Migration Studies•2015

  • Explaining the salience of anti-elitism and reducing political corruption for political parties in Europe with the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey data

    Open Access•Jonathan Polk, Jan Rovny et al.•Research & Politics•2017

  • Measuring Immigration Policies

    Open Access•Marc Helbling, Liv Bjerre et al.•European Political Science•2016

  • European Immigration Policies in Comparative Perspective

    Open Access•Terri E Givens, Terri Givens et al.•Comparative European Politics•2005

  • Revisiting the left cabinet share

    Open Access•Holger Döring, Hanna Schwander•Journal of European Social Policy•2015

  • How Denationalization Divides Elites and Citizens

    Céline Teney, Marc Helbling•Zeitschrift für Soziologie•2014

  • The Emerging Migration State

    Open Access•James F Hollifield•International Migration Review•2004

  • Modes of Immigration Politics in Liberal Democratic States

    Open Access•Gary P Freeman•International Migration Review•1995

  • Theorizing Migration Policy

    Open Access•Christina Boswell•International Migration Review•2007

  • The Power and Morals of Policy Makers

    Open Access•Bonjour, Saskia Bonjour•International Migration Review•2011

  • Growing Restrictiveness or Changing Selection? The Nature and Evolution of Migration Policies 1

    Open Access•Hein De Haas, Katharina Natter et al.•International Migration Review•2018

  • Growing Restrictiveness or Changing Selection? The Nature and Evolution of Migration Policies 1

    Open Access•Hein De Haas, Katharina Natter et al.•International Migration Review•2018

  • Immigration Policy in France and Germany

    Open Access•James F Hollifield•The Annals of the American…•1986

  • Variation in policy success

    Philipp Lutz•West European Politics•2018

  • Immigration policy and electoral competition in Western Europe

    Open Access•Tjitske Akkerman•Party Politics•2015

  • Panel data analysis and partisan variables

    Carina Schmitt•Journal of European Public Policy•2016

  • Immigration, national identity and political trust in European democracies

    Lauren Mclaren•New Community•2017

  • Mandates and Policy Outputs

    Open Access•Ian Budge, Richard I Hofferbert•American Political Science Review•1990

  • The extreme-right and immigration policy-making

    Martin A Schain•West European Politics•2006

  • Elites and the ‘organised public

    P Statham, Andrew Geddes•West European Politics•2006

  • Actors and venues in immigration control

    Gallya Lahav, Virginie Guiraudon•West European Politics•2006

  • Partisan Influence on Immigration

    Open Access•Frøy Gudbrandsen•Scandinavian Political Studies•2010

  • Do Party Manifestos Matter in Policy-Making? Capacities, Incentives and Outcomes of Electoral Programmes in France

    Open Access•Sylvain Brouard, Emiliano Grossman et al.•Political Studies•2018

  • Responsive Government? Public Opinion and Government Policy Preferences in Britain and Denmark

    Open Access•Sara B Hobolt, Robert Klemmemsen•Political Studies•2005

  • Measuring Parties’ Ideological Positions With Manifesto Data

    Open Access•Elias Dinas, Kostas Gemenis•Party Politics•2010

  • Immigration, left and right

    Open Access•Sonia Alonso, Sonia Alonso Sáenz De Oger et al.•Party Politics•2012

  • Party politics and education spending

    Julian Garritzmann, Julian L Garritzmann et al.•Journal of European Public Policy•2016

  • Migration policy trends in OECD countries

    Marc Helbling, Dorina Kalkum•Journal of European Public Policy•2018

  • What Motivates the Gatekeepers? Explaining Governing Party Preferences on Immigration

    Open Access•Christian Breunig, Adam Luedtke•Governance•2008

  • Multidimensional government-citizen congruence and satisfaction with democracy

    Open Access•Christian Stecker, Markus Tausendpfund•European Journal of Political…•2016

  • The programme to policy linkage

    Open Access•Rob Thomson, Robert Thomson•European Journal of Political…•2001

  • Partisanship in the setting and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies

    Open Access•Thomas R Cusack•European Journal of Political…•2001

  • Coalition Policy in Parliamentary Democracies

    Open Access•Paul Warwick, Paul V Warwick•Comparative Political Studies•2001

  • The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges

    Open Access•Rob Thomson, Robert Thomson et al.•American Journal of Political…•2017

  • Testing the Mandate Model in Britain and the United States

    Open Access•Terry J Royed, Terry Royed•British Journal of Political…•1996

  • The Public Thermostat, Political Responsiveness and Error-Correction

    Open Access•Will Jennings•British Journal of Political…•2009

  • Niche Party Success and Mainstream Party Policy Shifts - How Green and Radical Right Parties Differ in Their Impact

    Open Access•Tarik Abou‐chadi•British Journal of Political…•2014

  • Party mandate theory and time-series analysis

    Open Access•Helmut Thome•Electoral Studies•1999

  • The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies

    Open Access•Mathias Czaika, Hein De Haas•Population and Development Review•2013

  • The Gap between Public Preferences and Policies on Immigration

    Laura Morales, Jean-Benoit Pilet et al.•New Community•2015

Unique citing works16
Citations per year3,2
Citation span2021 - 2026 (6)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 16

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae