Testing Our Quasi‐Statistical Sense
News Use, Political Knowledge, and False Projection
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6337027 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Shira Dvir Gvirsman (Netanya Academic College), Shira Dvir-Gvirsman (0000-0002-3852-1878, Netanya Academic College, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 729-747 |
| Publication date | 2015-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0162-895X • E-ISSN: 1467-9221 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/pops.12203 |
| OpenAlex | W2169032843 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 44 |
Although widely studied, previous research of projection in the context of public opinion did not incorporate the distinction between adequate and false projection developed in the cognitive studies: Adequate projection contributes to accurate perceptions of public opinion while false projection impairs it. The analysis presented in this study includes the above distinction, building on two case studies: (1) a dataset comprised of 25 surveys conducted over a period of 10 years (N = 11,313) and (2) a panel study of the 2013 Israeli general election. Relying on the assumptions of the Bayesian model, we tested if frequent news exposure and factual political knowledge reduce false projection. We found that false projection is a highly persistent psychological tendency with little variance. Although news exposure and political knowledge did contribute to a more accurate perception of public opinion, they did not reduce false projection. Conversely, knowledge increased false projection among moderates and had no effect in this respect among proponents of a more extreme ideology. These findings align better with the motivated reasoning model than with the Bayesian model
Algorithm · Bayesian probability · Cognition · Cognitive psychology · Context (archaeology · Econometrics · Ideology · Perception · Political science · Politics · Projection (relational algebra · Public opinion · Statistics · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · History · Law · Mathematics · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology
From personalized news curation to shared issue concerns in fragmentation era
Ideological differences in attitude and belief similarity
A Replication of Stern, West, and Schmitt (2014) Indicates Less False Consensus Among Liberals Than Conservatives, But No False Uniqueness
Different platforms, different uses
Rightward Leanings and Nonstandard Party-Position Perceptions
Monitoring the Opinion of the Crowd
Partisanship, Political Knowledge, and the Dunning‐Kruger Effect
Political Persuasion and Attitude Change
Projection or Persuasive Press? Contrary Effects of Personal Opinion and Perceived News Coverage on Estimates of Public Opinion
The Spiral of Silence a Theory of Public Opinion
Framing, Motivated Reasoning, and Opinions About Emergent Technologies
Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect
Computer-Mediated False Consensus
Pluralistic Ignorance and the Climate of Opinion in a Real-Time Disaster Prediction
Perceiving Public Opinion of Political Figures
Exploiting the Wisdom of Others to Make Better Decisions
Americans' Perceptions of Presidential Candidates
The truly false consensus effect
Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect
The novice and the expert
Reading Public Opinion
Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration? Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making
Polls and the Science of Public Opinion
Motivated Reasoning and Public Opinion Perception
Picking the Winners
False Consensus Goes Online
Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Public Opinion Formation
The Affective Tipping Point
The Wished‐For Always Wins Until the Winner Was Inevitable All Along
Does Political Information Matter
Beyond the Running Tally
The Motivated Processing of Political Arguments
Bayesian Analysis for Political Research
Political Knowledge, Political Engagement, and Civic Education
Misperceptions About Perceptual Bias
Citizens, Knowledge, and the Information Environment
Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs
Perceived consensus and predictive accuracy
The need for cognition
The case for motivated reasoning
Facilitating Communication across Lines of Political Difference
| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,7 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2026 (11) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 7 |