Picking the Winners
Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6368563 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James B Lemert |
| Year | 1986 |
| Volume | 50 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 208 |
| Publication date | 1986-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Public Opinion Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-362X • E-ISSN: 1537-5331 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1086/268975 |
| OpenAlex | W2124157877 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 16 |
| References cited | 7 |
Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomes of two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians' predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were. Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the “Looking-Glass effect”) in their predictions than did politicians. Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians' accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate 1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy. Findings have implications for theories of representative government and are consistent with a new theory of public opinion
Ballot · Econometrics · Economics · Government (linguistics · Opinion poll · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Public opinion · Voting · Wishful thinking · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Psychology · Social Media and Politics · Social Psychology
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More than wishful thinking
| Unique citing works | 16 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,48 |
| Citation span | 1993 - 2026 (34) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 16 |