Political communication in the real world
Evidence from a natural experiment in Germany
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6342245 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Armin Seimel (0000-0002-6470-6657, University of Amsterdam, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 282-297 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Science Research and Methods (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2049-8470 • E-ISSN: 2049-8489 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/psrm.2024.3 |
| OpenAlex | W4392918087 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 26 |
Various robust communication effects have been identified, but evidence is overwhelmingly based on artificial survey treatments with limited real-world insight. I conducted a natural experiment on the impact of the European–Turkey statement closing the Balkan route during the 2015/16 European refugee crisis in Germany. This design tests the lasting effect of the statement's framing on public sentiment. I identify treatment and control groups based on timing to demonstrate its effect on perceptions of the crisis, asylum attitudes, and policy preferences. Effects are largest immediately following the announcement but decline rapidly. This shows political communication can significantly change opinion within a limited time frame. This study enhances our understanding of real-world communication effects and offers a broadly applicable methodology
Archaeology · Economics · Natural (archaeology · Natural experiment · Political science · Politics · Real world evidence · Statistics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · History · Law · Mathematics · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Media and Politics
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Agenda-Setting and Mass Communication Theory
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Agenda Setting through Social Media
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Getting Real
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The Effects of Issue Salience, Elite Influence, and Policy Content on Public Opinion
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The effect of Covid‐19 lockdowns on political support
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Dynamic Public Opinion
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| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |