Comparative politics and causal evaluation of structural reforms
The case of the UK national minimum wage introduction
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6342272 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas König (0000-0002-1797-6662, University of Mannheim, corresponding author), Guido Ropers (0000-0001-5069-2699, University of Mannheim), Anika Buchmann (University of Mannheim) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 301-314 |
| Publication date | 2020-04-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Science Research and Methods (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2049-8470 • E-ISSN: 2049-8489 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/psrm.2019.45 |
| OpenAlex | W2986904043 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 46 |
In comparative studies, causal evaluations attempt to improve our understanding of the effectiveness of structural reforms by counterfactually inspecting post-treatment effects. Yet, even if comparative scholars find similar treatment and comparison units, the interpretation of the post-treatment trajectory is difficult as short-term estimates can be subject to strategic timing of reform implementation, while long-term effects are likely affected by further interventions. To illustrate these difficulties we apply the generalized synthetic control method to evaluate the introduction of a British national minimum wage. We find a short-term decreasing effect on youth unemployment that turns into an increasing effect over time. This suggests the presence of an upward biased selection effect from strategic timing. We also inspect two post-treatment interventions and find that they differ in their general and country-specific implications for the long-term trajectory
Causal inference · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Interpretation (philosophy · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Political science · Politics · Psychological intervention · Term (time · Trajectory · Unemployment · Wage · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Computer Science · Labor Movements and Unions · Psychology · Social Policy and Reform Studies
Parties and party systems
Democracies
Parliaments and Coalitions
Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining
Young people and the Great Recession
Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation
The size and scope of government
A New Measure of Monetary Shocks
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes
Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies
Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.
The Political Business Cycle
Statistics and Causal Inference
Veto Players
Democracy and the Market
Dismantling the Welfare State?
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration
Great Transformations
Natural and Quasi-Experiments in Economics
Political Control of the Economy
Incumbent performance and electoral control
Unnatural Experiments? Estimating the Incidence of Endogenous Policies
Myth and Measurement
Fiscal Governance in the Eurozone
Winners Take All
Generalized Synthetic Control Method
How federalism influences welfare spending
Electoral Andpartisancycles Ineconomicpolicies Andoutcomes
Electoral Accountability
Policy Making for the Long Term in Advanced Democracies
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State
The Economic Costs of Conflict
The State of Applied Econometrics
Explaining Causal Findings Without Bias
Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies
Do Minimum Wages Lead to Job Losses? Evidence from OECD Countries on Low-Skilled and Youth Employment
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |