A Theory and Test of Pledge-Based Voting
The Limited but Real Effects of Election Pledges on Citizens’ Vote Choice
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6345709 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Troels Bøggild (0000-0002-8001-4044, Aarhus University, corresponding author), Carsten Jensen (0000-0002-4346-031X, Aarhus University) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 72 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 1390-1409 |
| Publication date | 2024-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-3217 • E-ISSN: 1467-9248 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00323217231179010 |
| OpenAlex | W4380363779 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 9 |
| References cited | 49 |
Do voters decide on the basis of the election pledges political parties make? Although this is a key assumption in most democratic theories and, seemingly, among parties who issue dozens of pledges during campaigns, the scientific literature does not provide a clear answer to this question. This article develops a theory of pledge-based voting and a research design that allows for studying the electoral effects of pledges in real-time as the campaign unfolds. Based on a novel experimental design embedded in panel surveys administered during and after the 2019 Danish national election campaign (N = 6233), we estimate that the most salient pledges affect vote choice by between 1.1 and 2.1 percentage points averaged across the electorate. While modest, these effects can be decisive in the often highly competitive context of modern elections. The findings have implications for our understanding of political behavior, party politics, and normative theories of democracy
Context (archaeology · Democracy · Economics · Law and economics · Normative · Pledge · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Salient · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Media and Politics
Overpromising populists? Why challenger parties make fewer, not more, promises than established parties
Following voters in the chain of representation
A party’s pledge fulfillment and procedural transparency affect voters’ trust
Political incivility from different points of view
When Do Broken Campaign Promises Matter? Evidence From Four Experiments
Welche Rolle spielen Wahlversprechen für die Wahlentscheidung
A Credible Change
The paradox of positional convergence
Why all these promises? How parties strategically use commitments to gain credibility in an increasingly competitive political landscape
What Americans know about politics and why it matters
The Rationalizing Voter
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
Party Mandates and Democracy
The small effects of political advertising are small regardless of context, message, sender, or receiver
An economic theory of democracy
Cheater detection in politics
G Internet and Confidence in Government
“Liar, Liar… ”
How Does Treatment Self-Selection Affect Inferences About Political Communication
Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties? The Causes and the Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties' Policy Shifts, 1976–1998
Campaign Communications in U.S. Congressional Elections
Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006
Politicians as Party Hacks
The Authorities Really Do Matter
Presidents and the Prospective Voter
Citizens’ Evaluations of the Fulfillment of Election Pledges
Do They Really Know? On Party Representatives’ Knowledge of the Extent to Which Their Parties Make Election Pledges
Which Promises Actually Matter? Election Pledge Centrality and Promissory Representation
Trust and Citizens’ Evaluations of Promise Keeping by Governing Parties
Retrospective and Prospective Voting in Presidential-Year Elections
How Politicians’ Reelection Efforts Can Reduce Public Trust, Electoral Support, and Policy Approval
An Experimental Investigation of Election Promises
Assessing the Influence of Political Parties on Public Opinion
Timing Is Everything? Primacy and Recency Effects in Voter Mobilization Campaigns
The Limits of Partisan Loyalty
Do Online Advertisements Increase Political Candidates’ Name Recognition or Favorability? Evidence from Randomized Field Experiments
Party pledges in the news
Populism's rise in post‐communist countries
Retrospective pledge voting
Asymmetric Accountability
Learning More from Political Communication Experiments
How Political Parties Shape Public Opinion in the Real World
Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996
The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges
When Is A Pledge A Pledge
The Political Conditionality of Mass Media Influence
Communication, commitment, and cooperation in social dilemma
The Logic of the Survey Experiment Reexamined
The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections
Rethinking Representation
When heuristics go bad
The first one wins
Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects
Citizens as Complicits
Competition Between Unequals
| Unique citing works | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |