Vote Switching in the 2016 Election
How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6368233 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Tyler T Reny (0000-0003-2723-4950, Political Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA), L Collingwood (0000-0002-4447-8204, Department of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside, CA, USA), Ali A Valenzuela (0000-0002-6186-2195, Department of Politics at Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 83 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 91-113 |
| Publication date | 2019-05-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Public Opinion Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-362X • E-ISSN: 1537-5331 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/poq/nfz011 |
| OpenAlex | W2946751840 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 107 |
| References cited | 38 |
In the aftermath of Donald Trump's 2016 electoral-college victory, journalists focused heavily on the White working class (WWC) and the relationship between economic anxiety, racial attitudes, immigration attitudes, and support for Trump. One hypothesized but untested proposition for Donald Trump's success is that his unorthodox candidacy, particularly his rhetoric surrounding economic marginalization and immigration, shifted WWC voters who did not vote Republican in 2012 into his coalition. Using a large national survey, we examine: (1) whether racial and immigration attitudes or economic dislocation and marginality were the main correlates of vote switching; and (2) whether this phenomenon was isolated among the White working class. Findings indicate that a nontrivial number of White voters switched their votes in the 2016 election to Trump or Clinton, that this vote switching was more associated with racial and immigration attitudes than economic factors, and that the phenomenon occurred among both working-class and nonworking-class Whites, though many more working-class Whites switched than did nonworking-class Whites. Our findings suggest that racial and immigration attitudes may be continuing to sort White voters into new partisan camps and further polarize the parties
Demographic economics · Economics · Immigration · Phenomenon · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Victory · Voting · Voting behavior · White (mutation · Working class · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Migration, Refugees, and Integration · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology · Law · Social Psychology
Populism
Generational Politics in the United States
Perceived threat drives support for coercive border enforcement against unauthorized crossings
Dynamic Racial Attitudes and Presidential Vote Switching
The shadow of the Pithead
Politics as Usual? Measuring Populism, Nationalism, and Authoritarianism in U.S. Presidential Campaigns (1952–2020) with Neural Language Models
Does personality “Trump” ideology? narcissism predicts support for Trump via ideological tendencies
Discrimination and Multiculturalism in Canada
Sanctuary Cities
Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes
Stuart Hall's Relational Political Sociology
Perceived China Threat, Conspiracy Belief, and Public Support for Restrictive Immigration Control During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Populism as Dog-Whistle Politics
Partisan Learning or Racial Learning
Partisan Change with Generational Turnover
Race, Partisanship, and Democratic Politics
Xenophobia, Partisanship, and Support for Donald Trump and the Republican Party
Race politics research and the American presidency
Healthy Debate
Racialized Pandemic
The Rise or Decline of Social Acceptance? Perspective from U.S. Presidential Elections, 2012 to 2020
White Consciousness and White Prejudice
The Role of Anti-Establishment Orientations During the Trump Presidency
Why Trump Became a ‘Confederate’ President
White identity politics
Relative group discrimination and vote choice among Blacks, Latinos, Asians, and Whites
Xenophobia in the time of pandemic
Viewers like you
Examining the determinants of opposition to birthright citizenship
The politics of pronouns
White candidate support continues amidst explicit and implicit white identity cues
Belief in White Replacement
Hiding the Hate—Contextual Effects on Hate Crime Reports
The Origins and Consequences of Racialized Schemas about U.S. Parties
Economic perceptions and voting behavior in US presidential elections
A wall of incivility? Public discourse and immigration in the 2016 U.S. Primaries
Acts of collusion
The 2024 Presidential Election Through Latino Lenses
How Right-Wing Media, Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube Circulated Antipathy and Threat Cues About Immigrants
Framing Refuge
Manage migration to save liberal order
Democratizing U.S. Courts
New Lines, New Districts, New Representation
Immigrant detention be banned? Constituent, subconstituent, and elite influence over House Democrat's decision to cosponsor the Dignity for Detained Immigrants Act
Opinions about immigration, patriotism, and welfare policies during the coronavirus emergency
Polls and Elections
Racially Conditioned Partisans
The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections
Differently Divisive Sexism, Racial Resentment, and Support for Candidates with Incongruent Views
The American Viewer
Historical information and beliefs about racial inequality
The Partisan Sorting of “America
Floating policy voters in the 2016 U.S. presidential election
Keep America Christian (and White)
Taking Communities into the Groan Zone
How Social Desirability Response Bias May Lead to an Overestimation of Obama-Trump Voters
In-Group Love and Out-Group Hate
Nationally poor, locally rich
On the measurement of social class and its role in shaping white vote choice in the 2016 U.S. presidential election
A swing vote from the ethnic backstage
Deindustrialization, Identity Politics, and Public Support for Liberal Policies in the United States
Status Threat, Political Competition, and the Expansion of Voter Identification Laws in the United States
Mobility patterns predict increasing polarization between neighborhoods
The Structure of Presidential Evaluations
Past the saturation point
Campaign Personalisation at the 2023 Estonian Parliamentary Election
Complicating the Role of White Racial Attitudes and Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in the 2016 US Presidential Election
Does In-Group Consolidation Polarize Attitudes Toward Immigrants
The fall of Trump
The Intersectional Effects of Diverse Elections on Validated Turnout in the 2018 Midterm Elections
Trends
No, You're Playing the Race Card
Hostile Sexism, Racial Resentment, and Political Mobilization
But Can She Make America Great Again? Threat, Stability, and Support for Female Candidates in the United States
The Electoral Costs and Benefits of Feminism in Contemporary American Politics
White Racial Resentment and Gender Attitudes
The Activation of Anti-Asian Attitudes on Vote Choice
The Symbolic Politics of Status in the Maga Movement
Embracing the Status Hierarchy
The Myth of Global Populism
The “American DREAM
Inverting the Lens
The White Working Class and the 2016 Election
The Impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s Electoral Demise
Faith over fear? Christian nationalism and cultural fears in the United States
Ethnonationalism and White immigration attitudes
Solidarity in question
The Persistence of Racial Cues and Appeals in American Elections
Constrained Citizens? Ideological Structure and Conflict Extension in the US Electorate, 1980–2016
The Devil That You Know
On Modeling the Social-Psychological Foundations of Support for Donald Trump
Perceived Local Population Dynamics and Immigration Policy Views
Priming Legality
Intervening in Anti-Immigrant Sentiments
Is a new structurally dispossessed class developing in the United States
Racial attitudes & political cross-pressures in nationalized elections
The dual economy, climate change, and the polarization of American politics
"Expressions of American White Ethnonationalism in Support for "Blue Lives Matter
Reducing Exclusionary Attitudes through Interpersonal Conversation
Plutopopulism
The Increasingly United States
Post-Broadcast Democracy
Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote
Uneasy Alliances
Why Did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate
Racial Realignment
Identity Crisis
On the Precipice of a “Majority-Minority” America
Examining whites’ anti-black attitudes after Obama’s presidency
Immigration Opposition Among U.S. Whites
Expressive Versus Instrumental Partisanship in Multiparty European Systems
Asian American Political Participation
The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964)
Polarization, Demographic Change, and White Flight from the Democratic Party
The Parties in Our Heads
Race, Place, and Building a Base
The Nature of Political Ideology in the Contemporary Electorate
A New Measure of Group Influence in Presidential Elections
Exploring the Bases of Partisanship in the American Electorate
Revisiting Latino Voting
One Tribe to Bind Them All
Beyond the Running Tally
Pigeonholing Partisans
The New White Flight
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
Public Attitudes Toward Immigration
Acculturating Contexts and Anglo Opposition to Immigration in the United States
Priming Predispositions and Changing Policy Positions
Local News and National Politics
Expressive Partisanship
The Strength of Issues
Digging into the Pocketbook
The Changing Color of Welfare? How Whites' Attitudes toward Latinos Influence Support for Welfare
| Unique citing works | 107 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 15,29 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 106 |