The 2016 Election and America’s Standing Abroad
Quasi-Experimental Evidence of a Trump Effect
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6384886 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Regina Bateson (0000-0001-6966-5770, University of Ottawa), Michael Weintraub (0000-0002-2918-6588, Universidad de los Andes) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 84 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 2300-2304 |
| Publication date | 2022-10-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3816 • E-ISSN: 1468-2508 |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/718209 |
| OpenAlex | W3216355955 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 14 |
Global favorability toward the United States declined by more than 10 percentage points from 2016 to 2017. This shift coincided with the end of the Obama administration and the inauguration of Donald Trump—but did Trump's election cause America's standing abroad to erode? Leveraging a natural experiment, we show that Trump's victory had an immediate, negative effect on international public opinion toward the United States. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that a major cross-national survey, the AmericasBarometer, was in the field when the 2016 US presidential election occurred. Using data from four Latin American countries, we compare respondents surveyed just before and after the election. We find that Trump's unexpected win caused a sharp drop in trust in the US government. While scholars have long observed that domestic political considerations shape leaders' foreign policy decisions, we show that domestic political events—such as elections—can also affect a country's international image
Administration (probate law · Economics · Foreign policy · Government (linguistics · Latin Americans · National election · Natural experiment · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Public opinion · Victory · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Public Administration
Popular Leader as an Asset of Soft Power
Political shock and international students
Anti-immigration party success abroad and voter polarization at home
Elite cues and public climate attitudes
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers
How does a focusing event shape public opinion? Natural experimental evidence from the Orlando mass shooting
Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation
Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks
Transformative Choices
Public Diplomacy and Soft Power
Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects
Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion
A Trump Effect on the EU’s Popularity? The U.S. Presidential Election as a Natural Experiment
In Search of Soft Power
The Trump Election and Attitudes toward the United States in Latin America
Unexpected Event during Survey Design
Building Trust
Tell Me Who Is Your Leader, and I Will Tell You Who You Are
Global Racist Contagion Following Donald Trump's Election
Do Leaders Matter and How Would We Know
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations
| Citations per year | 1.75 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Highly cited | No |