Preventive Nuclearization
Power Shifts, Anticipated Insecurity, and Public Support for Nuclear Armament in South Korea
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6434951 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yang Gyu Kim (0000-0002-9684-1538, Korea National Defense University), Sangmi Jeong (0000-0002-1624-4224) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 302-325 |
| Publication date | 2025-10-22 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of East Asian Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1598-2408 • E-ISSN: 2234-6643 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/jea.2025.10012 |
| OpenAlex | W4415420323 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 28 |
The dominant view in proliferation research holds that security guarantees from nuclear patrons reduce client states’ incentives to pursue nuclear armament. Yet in South Korea, public support for indigenous nuclear capabilities remains high despite strong trust in US extended deterrence. Drawing on the “better-now-than-later” logic from preventive war theory, we argue that this support reflects public forward-looking pessimism about the security environment, shaped by perceptions of the relative decline of the US and North Korea’s advancing nuclear capabilities. Analysis of the 2023 EAI Public Opinion Poll shows that concerns about systemic power shifts and pessimism about future inter-Korean relations are significantly associated with support for nuclear armament. South Korean public assessments of US extended deterrence and North Korea’s military threat do not align with conventional alliance theory expectations that high trust in extended deterrence should reduce support for nuclear armament. These findings underscore the need for reassurance strategies that address enduring alliance credibility
International Relations and Foreign Policy · Korean Peninsula Historical and Political Studies · Nuclear Issues and Defense
Prospect Theory
The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation
Causes of War
India's Nuclear Bomb and National Security
Nuclear politics
It takes all types
Alliance and Public Preference for Nuclear Forbearance
South Korean Cost Sensitivity and Support for Nuclear Weapons
The Domestic Politics of Nuclear Choices—A Review Essay
Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb
Alliance Coercion and Nuclear Restraint
Correlates of South Korean Public Opinion on Nuclear Proliferation
Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War
The Realist Tradition in American Public Opinion
The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation
Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire
Nonproliferation Information and Attitude Change
Importing the Bomb
Security Guarantees and Allied Nuclear Proliferation
Folk Realism
Preventive War and Democratic Politics
The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions
War as a Commitment Problem
Signaling Alliance Commitments
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |