A Formal Theory of Public Opinion
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6447014 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Daniel Diermeier, Michael Schnabel (0000-0001-9753-0208) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 101-137 |
| Publication date | 2025-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Quarterly Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1554-0626 • E-ISSN: 1554-0634 |
| Publisher | Now Publishers (PUBLISHER • NL) |
| DOI | 10.1561/100.00022178 |
| OpenAlex | W4406334755 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 47 |
We propose a mathematical theory of public opinion based on Zaller (1992). We show how our theory can provide a rigorous account for various empirical implications identified by Zaller (1992). We then show that it can also account for empirical regularities on information and response volatility identified by Alvarez and Brehm (2002), media influence and polarization (Zaller, 1992), as well as media slant, priming, framing, and agenda setting. We then derive the “miracle of aggregation” argument due to Page and Shapiro (1992) and apply it to the study of polarization, media influence, and opinion change (Stimson, 2015 [2004]). Our theory provides a general framework for studying public opinion in a rigorous fashion
Economics · Epistemology · Law and economics · Political philosophy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Public opinion · Sociology · Theory · Computer Science · Law · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Philosophy · Social Media and Politics
News That Matters
The Rationalizing Voter
The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion
Making the News
Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks
The Responsible Electorate
Neither Liberal nor Conservative
The Social Citizen
The Rational Public
Hard Choices, Easy Answers
Why Americans Hate the Media and How It Matters
Statistical physics of social dynamics
Identification of peer effects through social networks
Logit models and logistic regressions for social networks
A Theory of Participation in Elections
Logit Models and Logistic Regressions for Social Networks
A Model Discipline
A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
Electoral Institutions with impressionable voters
The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics
Democracy for Realists
A Measure of Media Bias
Social Networks and the Identification of Peer Effects
The Evolution of Agenda-Setting Research
Measuring Issue Preferences
A Simple Theory of the Survey Response
Electoral Control with Behavioral Voters
Global warming" or "climate change
The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media
Public Misunderstanding of Political Facts
The Implications of Framing Effects for Citizen Competence
Toward a Psychology of Framing Effects
Path-dependency and coordination in multi-candidate elections with behavioral voters
American Ambivalence Towards Abortion Policy
The affect system has parallel and integrative processing components
Framing Theory
Economic Analysis of Social Interactions
Framing Public Opinion in Competitive Democracies
The Strategy of Ambiguity
Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability
Dynamic Representation
Partisan Affect and Elite Polarization
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |