Optimal Bayesian chronological modeling for high resolution chronology for the Middle Jomon of Kanto region (Honshu Island, Japan) approaching a generational scale
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6447997 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Y Kanezaki (0009-0002-4584-7582, The University Museum, The University of Tokyo), Takayuki Omori (0000-0002-4460-9032, corresponding author), Koichi Kobayashi (0000-0002-9896-0418) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 67 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 727-740 |
| Publication date | 2025-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Radiocarbon (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-8222 • E-ISSN: 1945-5755 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/rdc.2025.10114 |
| OpenAlex | W4413773256 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 11 |
In recent years, the increasing accumulation of radiocarbon dating data in Jomon research has progressed, creating a foundation for more detailed chronological estimates of the Jomon period’s high-resolution typo-chronology. However, there remains a gap between relative chronologies based on typology and radiocarbon data. A key issue arises from discrepancies between the concept of keishiki (“type” in Japanese) as a time unit of relative chronology, defined based on production period, and the radiocarbon dates, which reflect various events that occurred to the pottery after its production. To overcome the gap, this study introduced a new Bayesian chronological model, the one-sided sequential model, which sequentially orders only the start boundaries of each typological group. When this model was applied to a case study from the Middle Jomon period in the Kanto region, it estimated more reasonable date ranges for each phase of the typo-chronology than the contiguous model. Additionally, the resulting estimated duration of each pottery type was shorter during periods of higher estimated populations and longer during periods of lower estimated populations, providing new insights into the temporal aspects of Jomon society While Bayesian chronological modeling is not prevalent in Jomon research, appropriate models make it possible to make chronological estimates consistent with the high-resolution Jomon chronology, which is considered to approach a generational scale. Such attempts enable detailed clarification of various social and cultural changes. The temporality of the past thus revealed provides a new approach to a deeper understanding of Jomon society
Archaeology · Bayesian probability · Cartography · Chronology · Geography · High resolution · Physical geography · Radiocarbon dating · Scale (ratio · Statistics · Archaeology and ancient environmental studies · Geology and Paleoclimatology Research · Image Processing and 3D Reconstruction · Geology · Paleontology
Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis
The Temporality of Shapes
Population density, mobility, and cultural transmission
A multi-proxy inference of Jōmon population dynamics using bayesian phase models, residential data, and summed probability distribution of 14C dates
Dealing with Outliers and Offsets in Radiocarbon Dating
Rolling Out Revolution
Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates
Development and Application of the Trapezoidal Model for Archaeological Chronologies
Demography and Cultural Innovation
Demography and Cultural Evolution
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |