New World Settlement Evidence for a Two‐Stage Neolithic Demographic Transition

Previous articleNext article FreeReportsNew World Settlement Evidence for a Two‐Stage Neolithic Demographic Transition1MatthewS.BandyMatthewS.BandyDepartment of Anthropology, University of Oklahoma, 455 W. Lindsey, Dale Hall Tower 521, Norman, OK 730190535, U.S.A. ([email protected]). 17 v 05Department of Anthropology, University of Oklahoma, 455 W. Lindsey, Dale Hall Tower 521, Norman, OK 730190535, U.S.A. ([email protected]). 17 v 05PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreThe adoption of an agricultural village lifeway roughly coincided with a great increase in the absolute number of humans and in the size of human communities. This increase in the growth rate of human populations has been called the Neolithic demographic transition (BocquetAppel 2002:637). It is one of the fundamental structuring processes of human history, and it is therefore highly relevant to the comparative study of cultural and social evolution at a global scale.Albert Ammerman and L. Luca CavalliSforza (1971), in their original formulation of the demic diffusion hypothesis, provided a model for the Neolithic demographic transition. In their scenario, the transition to an agricultural economy led to an increased net reproductive rate, lasting for some generations until a new plateau of population density consonant with the carrying capacity of the land was reached (p. 687). The transition was therefore, in their view, a twostage process. In the first stage, reduced mortality and/or increased fertility produced rapid population growth. In the second stage, limitations of the natural environment produced a lower population growth rate. In subsequent publications, Ammerman and CavalliSforza (1984; Ammerman, CavalliSforza, and Wagener 1987) have argued that both the timing of the onset of the Neolithic in Europe and continentalscale genetic distribution patterns are consistent with this model. However, evidence for a twostage demographic transition has remained indirect. In principle, the observed archaeological and genetic patterns could have been produced by other kinds of historical processes.BocquetAppel (2002) has recently reconstructed population growth rates from standardized age profiles in a sample of Mesolithic and Neolithic cemeteries from Europe and North Africa. Though the results are tentative and suffer from limited sample size, especially for the Mesolithic, BocquetAppel reasonably concludes that his data support a twostage demographic transition coincident with the transition to an agricultural economy. After arranging his data according to chronological distance from the Neolithic diffusion front in such a way that zero represents the beginning of the Neolithic in any given region, he identifies three demographic periods (pp. 64445). In the first, prior to the transition to agriculture, estimated population growth is stationary or negative. This is a difficult point in the argument, as BocquetAppel acknowledges, because of the limited number and distribution of the Mesolithic cemeteries in the sample. In the second period, covering the first roughly 800 years of the Neolithic, the population growth rate increased dramatically, to an average of approximately 1.24% per annum. In the third, the rate of growth decreased somewhat, to an average of 1.16% per annum. The confidence intervals associated with these growth rate estimates are very wide ( 1.07%), and for this reason we should not attempt comparisons of absolute growth rates between world regions. However, the data are sufficient to indicate that the Neolithic demographic transition in Europe was in fact a twostage process as the demic diffusion model suggests. The rate of population growth increased significantly in the first eight centuries or so of the Neolithic and declined thereafter.Many questions remain. Perhaps the most important of these concerns the generality of the twostage demographic transition. BocquetAppel suggests that the very high early Neolithic population growth rate reflects an increase in fertility associated with the transition to agriculture. This is reasonable, considering that agriculturalists do in fact have higher average fertility rates than others (Bentley, Jasienska, and Goldberg 1993). Further, direct paleodemographic evidence has recently been published demonstrating a substantial increase in fertility with the beginning of the Neolithic in the Levant (Eshed et al. 2004). He further hypothesizes that population density increased as the Neolithic wore on and that the promiscuity of humans and animals and the anastomotic process of village populations (BocquetAppel 2002:647) resulted in a diseaserelated mortality increase and a consequent decline in the rate of population growth. He therefore disagrees with Ammerman and CavalliSforzas original hypothesis that the decline in population growth (the second stage of the twostage transition) was the result of the populations having reached the carrying capacity of the land, arguing rather that it resulted from the operation of densitydependent effects in Neolithic village populations. This hypothesis has elsewhere been referred to as the first epidemiological transition (Barrett et al. 1998).It is important to recognize that none of the factors entering into BocquetAppels hypothetical reconstruction of European Neolithic demographic events are specific to Europe. While every local Neolithic transition is no doubt historically unique, all are characterized by the two essential ingredients of BocquetAppels model: yearround occupation of permanent villages (sedentism) and a substantial degree of dependence on food production for subsistence (agriculture). It is therefore unimportant for this discussion that village life preceded agriculture in some parts of Europe (Zvelebil and Lillie 2000, Zvelebil and RowleyConwy 1986) or that crop domestication preceded village life in many parts of the New World (Flannery, Moser, and Maranca 1986, Pearsall 1992, Smith and Cowan 2003). BocquetAppels model should in principle be equally applicable to the Neolithic transitions of the two world regions. In this article I use three archaeological settlement pattern data sets to evaluate the hypothesis that the transition to agricultural village life was associated with a twostage demographic transition in the New World.Analysis of Selected Settlement Data SetsIn the millennium following the transition to agricultural village life, the hypothesis of a twostage demographic transition predicts that the earlier half of that millennium will be characterized by relatively high population growth rates and the later half by substantially slower growth. In order to test this hypothesis, I will examine population growth rates during the first millennium of the Formative period of three areas: (1) the Basin of Mexico, (2) the Valley of Oaxaca, and (3) the Titicaca Basin. Before proceeding, however, it remains to address the question of how to monitor population and population growth using archaeological data.As BocquetAppel (2002:637) has observed, there are two broad classes of data that permit direct monitoring of prehistoric population growth rates: bioarchaeological (the age structure of mortuary populations) and archaeological. In this article, I take an archaeological approach to measuring prehistoric population growth not only because it is my area of specialization but also because large, wellanalyzed, and wellpublished mortuary samples of the kind employed by BocquetAppel in his analysis are a relative rarity in most of the New World and because settlement archaeology is relatively welldeveloped in the New World and a number of excellent data sets are available that span the first millennium following the transition to agricultural village life.There are many archaeological methods for estimating the population of sites. These include site area (Bandy 2001, Feinman et al. 1985, Stanish et al. 1997), combined site area and surface artifact density (Parsons 1971, Sanders 1972), number of structures or rooms (Adler 1992, Hill 1970, de Montmollin 1989), roofed area (Naroll 1962), and measures of refuse accumulation (Gallivan 2002, Varien and Mills 1997, Varien and Potter 1997). All of the data sets employed in the present analysis provide population estimates of all sites for each phase of their occupation. For the present analysis I will use published site population estimates for three regions, all of which are derived from some combination of site area and surface artifact density. However, in order to estimate regional population growth rates it is necessary to derive a measure of regional population that can be monitored over time. I call this measure the phase population index. The phase population index utilized here will be the simple sum of estimated population for all sites in a region during a given phase.The most significant complication in the use of the phase population index concerns the problem of site contemporaneity. Sanders (1972:102) expressed the problem in this way:Most researchers deal in blocks of time involving hundreds of years. Conceivably in the history of an area, there could have been a period in which settlements were less sedentary and village sites were frequently shifted, followed by a period in which people lived in more stable communities. In this case a simple calculation of the total amount of habitation area or number of ruined houses of the various sites from each period would not give an accurate picture even of the relative population size of the two periods.The percentage of sites which are occupied simultaneously in a given phase will vary from phase to phase and between different types of sites within a single phase. In stable settlement systems composed of small numbers of relatively large, permanent sites, the phase population index will closely correspond to the actual population of a phase at its maximum. However, in a phase characterized by small sites occupied on a shortterm basis the index will significantly overestimate that population. The phase population index as defined here will therefore exaggerate the contribution of small and ephemerally occupied components of a total settlement system relative to sedentary and continuously occupied components. In other words, farmsteads will count for relatively more than villages, town, and cities. It will also tend to exaggerate the population estimates for phases characterized by predominantly transitory settlement visvis more settled or urban periods.Two pertinent observations can therefore be made regarding the phase population index. First, as long as the degree of sedentism and site permanence remains about the same between phases the phase population index should vary directly with actual population; it will always be some constant multiple of maximum momentary population for the phase. For the calculation of population growth rates, the accuracy of the phase population index is not as important as its precision. It may yield an entirely incorrect population estimate for each phase, but as long as it does so consistently it is still possible to calculate the population growth rate. Since I am considering here only the first millennium of each sequence, it is possible to say that no dramatic settlement transformations (such as, for example, typically accompany episodes of state formation) took place in any of the three areas. Rates of occupation continuity are quite high in all three areas, and the majority of the population resided in large, permanent villages that were often occupied for many centuries and even millennia. Under these conditions the phase population index should yield useful results.Second, assuming continual settlement expansion and population growth, the phase population index measures population at the end of the phase, the time of maximum momentary population. This assumption holds for all three of the areas to be considered for the first millennium following the transition to agricultural village life. In each case, then, the end of each phase may be considered a point in time for which we have an acceptable regional population estimate.Considering all of the above, the annual growth rate during a given phase may therefore be calculated using the formula (Hassan 1981:139) where r = annual rate of population change, T = number of years in phase, and Pi = phase population index value of previous phase, Pf = phase population index value of phase. BocquetAppels hypothesis makes two predictions: (1) the transition to agriculture will coincide with a dramatic increase in the rate of population growth and (2) the rate of population growth will decrease significantly sometime in the second half of the first millennium following the transition. A limitation shared by all three areas to be examined is a lack of reliable data on preagricultural population levels or growth rates. At present, it is not possible to calculate a population growth rate for the first phase in each sequence. I will therefore be able to test only the second prediction in each area.The Basin of Mexico. The Basin of Mexico was the site of perhaps the first really ambitious archaeological settlementpattern project. Between 1967 and 1973 Jeffrey Parsons and Richard Blanton conducted a pedestrian survey of some 3,500 square kilometers, recording thousands of sites from all time periods of the regions prehistory (Blanton 1972; Parsons 1971, 1976; Parsons et al. 1982; Parsons, Kintigh, and Gregg 1983; Sanders, Parsons, and Santley 1979). A settled agricultural village system is welldocumented for the southern Basin of Mexico by the Early Horizon, around 1300 BCE (Blanton et al. 1981, Parsons 1974). In the earlier part of the Preclassic population was very heavily concentrated in the southern parts of the basin, with no substantial occupation of the north until after 500 BCE (Parsons 1974:9193).The early settlement history of the Basin of Mexico is problematic for several reasons (Parsons 1974:91). The primary reason is the recent expansion of Mexico City. Urban sprawl has resulted in the destruction of many sites, among them Tlatilco, probably a major Early Horizon center. In addition, the area surrounding the site of Cuicuilco, also probably a major early center, was covered by a lava flow sometime in the first or second century BCE that obscured the bulk of its associated habitation. It is problematic to estimate population and therefore population growth in the absence of reliable information on the size or density of what were possibly the two most populous settlements in the Basin of Mexico. The Preclassic settlement record of the Basin of Mexico is fundamentally and irremediably incomplete. Nevertheless, the majority of habitation sites do appear to have been preserved and recorded. If a twostage demographic transition took place, it may be evident in the settlement record.The phases we are concerned with in this analysis are the Early Horizon and First Intermediate 12 phases (Parsons 1974). The absolute date ranges for these phases are given in Table 1. Table 2 displays some basic information regarding the settlement system in each phase. I have calculated a phase population estimate for each of the three phases in question and calculated the average annual growth rate during each phase, assuming that the phase population estimate represents the terminal population of the phase. When these data were published (Parsons, Kintigh, and Gregg 1983), high and low population estimates were provided for each site for each phase. I have simply averaged these two numbers to arrive at a population estimate for the occupation. A population index value for each phase (Table 2) was calculated by summing the population estimates for all occupations pertaining to that phase.Table 1 Phase Names and Absolute Date Ranges (BCE) for Selected Settlement Data SetsBasin of MexicoValley of OaxacaTiticaca BasinEarly Horizon1300800Tierras Largas15001150Early Chiripa15001000First Intermediate 1800500San Jose1150850Middle Chiripa1000800First Intermediate 2500200Guadalupe850700Late Chiripa800250 Rosario700500 View Table ImageTable 2 Demographic Information by Phase, Basin of MexicoPhaseSitesHectaresPopulationGrowth Rate (%)Early Horizon734.4685 First Intermediate40297.56,3140.74Second Intermediate1031,152.230,7900.53View Table ImageIndeed, the Basin of Mexico data are consistent with the twostage model (Table 2). In the First Intermediate 1 population grew at approximately 0.74% per annum, a very high rate for an agricultural village society without access to antibiotics or modern medicine. In the following First Intermediate 2, after about 500 BCE, the rate of population growth fell to 0.53% annually, still quite a high rate but a considerable drop from the previous phase. Thus, the rate of population growth declined approximately 800 years after the establishment of permanent agricultural villages. This falls precisely into the time frame predicted by BocquetAppels hypothesis.The Valley of Oaxaca. The Valley of Oaxaca is another New World area that has benefited from archaeological settlement research on a massive scale. By 1985 almost all of this large highland valley, an area of some 2,150 square kilometers, had been archaeologically surveyed (Feinman et al. 1985:333), and these data have been published in their entirety (Blanton et al. 1982, Kowalewski et al. 1989). The present analysis is based on the data published by Kowalewski et al. (1989:appendix 1). These data are somewhat more robust for our present interpretive purposes than the Basin of Mexico data. The Valley of Oaxaca has suffered little from the effects of recent urbanization. The settlement record of this region remains largely intact, and it is probable that no significant preHispanic population concentrations remain unrecorded. A twostage demographic transition should therefore be readily apparent. As with the Basin of Mexico data, this data set provided high and low population estimates for each occupation of each recorded site. For the present analysis I have simply averaged the two in order to arrive at a population estimate for each site. My phase population estimates (Table 3) are the simple sum of the average population estimates for all occupations dating to each phase.Table 3 Demographic Information by Phase, Valley of OaxacaPhaseSitesHectaresPopulationGrowth Rate (%)Tierras Largas2414.8325 San Jos39104.21,9370.60Guadalupe4495.81,7820.06Rosario8392.11,8280.01View Table ImageAgricultural village life was wellestablished in the Valley of Oaxaca by the beginning of the Tierras Largas phase, at 1400 BCE (Flannery 1983, Marcus and Flannery 1996). The following millennium included the Tierras Largas, San Jos, Guadalupe, and Early Rosario ceramic phases (Table 1). Before the Rosario phase, settlement was concentrated in the Etla arm of the valley; the remainder was relatively vacant (Feinman et al. 1985). The Valley of Oaxaca data are consistent with the model of a twostage demographic transition. Population grew during the San Jos phase at the rapid rate of 0.60% annually. After about 850 BCE, in the following Guadalupe and Rosario phases population growth fell to almost zero or was even slightly negative.2 This drop in the growth rate took place approximately 650 years after the transition to agriculture at the beginning of the Tierras Largas phase (fig. 1), exactly as predicted by the model.Fig. 1. Population growth rate in relation to the transition to agriculture. 0, the beginning of the Formative period in each area.View Large ImageDownload PowerPointThe Titicaca Basin. The Lake Titicaca Basin of Peru and Bolivia is one of the nuclear areas for village and later state formation South America (Bermann 1990, Janusek 1994, Kolata 1993, Ponce Sangines 1981, Stanish 2003). Permanent agricultural villages appeared in the basin around 1500 BCE, about the same time as in Oaxaca. Though a significant amount of settlement research has taken place in this region in the past 20 years (AlbarracnJordan 1992, 1996; AlbarracnJordan and Mathews 1990; Janusek and Kolata 2003; Mathews 1992; Stanish et al. 1997), problems of ceramic chronology have limited the chronological resolution of Formativeperiod settlement data sets. Lee Steadmans studies (Hastorf et al. 2001, Steadman 1999) of Early and Middle Formative ceramics have only recently made possible the identification and distinction of these early ceramic phases in surface assemblages (see Table 1). In 199899 I conducted a survey of the Taraco Peninsula, the first survey to employ Steadmans improved chronology (Bandy 2001, 2004). The resulting settlement data set is therefore the only Titicaca Basin settlement data set useful for the present analysis.The area surveyed was 98 square kilometers, a very small area compared with the Basin of Mexico and Valley of Oaxaca surveys. The density and size of sites pertaining to the earliest ceramic phases were however, very high. An inspection of Table 4 will reveal that the Taraco Peninsula, though covering less than 5% of the surface area of the Valley of Oaxaca survey, nevertheless has similar overall population estimates for these early phases. It is important to remember that in both the Basin of Mexico and the Valley of Oaxaca population was highly localized in the earliest ceramic phases. This seems to be a general pattern in early agricultural village societies in many parts of the world. Therefore, having surveyed the Taraco Peninsula is similar to having surveyed the Etla subvalley of Oaxaca or the Chalco/Xochimilco region of the Basin of Mexico; most of the early agricultural village population was located in this relatively small area. This is confirmed by the much lower density of early occupation in the adjacent surveyed areas of the Tiwanaku Valley and the Katari Basin (AlbarracnJordan 1992, Janusek and Kolata 2003, Mathews 1992).Table 4 Demographic Information by Phase, Titicaca BasinPhaseSitesHectaresPopulationGrowth Rate (%)Early Middle Table Taraco Peninsula data, from the Basin of Mexico and the Valley of Oaxaca, are consistent with the twostage model. Population grew at a relatively rapid rate of in the Middle phase and to during the phase. This drop in the rate of population growth took place at 800 BCE, approximately years after the transition to agriculture in the southern Titicaca precisely as predicted by the growth rates slightly from the published by Feinman and growth rates of and This is because I use a slightly different of phase population and because I calculate growth from the end of one phase to the end of another calculate it between the of each phase (p. three of the New World archaeological settlement data sets examined are consistent with BocquetAppels twostage demographic transition. 1 displays the estimated population growth rates of all three areas in to the date of the transition to agriculture and village life. In all three an very high rate of population growth is followed by a drop in the growth rate that years after what in the World would be called the Neolithic transition. The profiles for the two areas and the Titicaca are very similar even in their absolute rates of population growth. These results are exactly as predicted by BocquetAppels and all of the growth rates in question within the confidence intervals of reconstructed by BocquetAppel for the European is that the settlement data sets examined here relatively small and samples and be considered of all New World agricultural village However, this study is significant for two first, it has provided evidence that BocquetAppels twostage Neolithic demographic transition took place in the New World Formative as as the European it has so using an of data. European bioarchaeological data and settlement data that a twostage demographic transition may be associated with transitions to agricultural village life The survey, in The A by W. in and early settlement patterns in the Tiwanaku in regional in and de 1. in and L. L. the rate of of early in Europe. in The Neolithic transition and the of populations in Europe. University in L. L. CavalliSforza, and the of population growth in World in Demographic by University of New Mexico in Population and history in the Titicaca Basin. University of in and social evolution in early village in W. and and The epidemiological transition. of in Jasienska, and the fertility of agriculturalists higher than that of in and at University of in settlement patterns of the Peninsula region, Mexico. of Anthropology, The in in and A of in three regions. University in 1. The settlement patterns of the and southern parts of the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico. of the of University of in of a Neolithic demographic transition. in The archaeology of Settlement analysis in a University in and the transition to agriculture the demographic structure of prehistoric New evidence from the of in L. and L. demographic A from the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico. of in The Tierras Largas phase and the of the Early in The evolution of the and by Flannery and New in Moser, and The of in and early agriculture in Oaxaca, Mexico. by in and settlement research in the Middle in Demographic New in W. and L. in social in the University of in and local in a patterns of urban in Tiwanaku and University of

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