Navigating Potential Pitfalls in Difference-in-Differences Designs
Reconciling Conflicting Findings on Mass Shootings’ Effect on Electoral Outcomes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7251010 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hans J G Hassell (0000-0002-6679-4849, Florida State University, corresponding author), John B Holbein (0000-0001-5099-3395, University of Virginia, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 119 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 240-260 |
| Publication date | 2024-04-12 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055424000108 |
| OpenAlex | W4394765059 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 57 |
Work on the electoral effects of gun violence in the U.S. relying on difference-in-differences designs has produced findings ranging from null to substantively large effects. However, as difference-in-difference designs, on which this research relies, have exploded in popularity, scholars have documented several methodological issues including potential violations of parallel-trends and unaccounted for treatment effect heterogeneity. These pitfalls (and their solutions) have not been fully explored in political science. We apply these advancements to the unresolved debate on gun violence’s effects on U.S. electoral outcomes. We show that studies finding a large positive effect of gun violence on Democratic vote shares are a product of a failure to properly specify difference-in-differences models when underlying assumptions are unlikely to hold. Once these biases are corrected, shootings show little evidence of sparking large electoral change. Our work clarifies an unresolved debate and provides a cautionary guide for scholars currently employing difference-in-differences designs
Democracy · Difference in differences · Econometrics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Positive economics · Product (mathematics · Significant difference · Statistics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gun Ownership and Violence Research · Healthcare Policy and Management · Law · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology
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Did development bring peace? Unintended consequences of Jokowi’s administration in Papua region’s extractive zones
The Diffusion of State Firearm Regulations
Using AI to Assess Demographic Balance of Syllabi and Bibliographies
Protecting Children With More Guns
Empowered by Information
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War
Claimability in International Relations
Exposure to Mass Shootings and Voting Directly on Gun Policy
Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting
Do Criminalization Policies Impact Local Homelessness
Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects
Synthetic Difference-in-Differences
What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature
Designing Difference in Difference Studies
When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?
How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?
Pretest with Caution
Covariate Balance in Simple, Stratified and Clustered Comparative Studies
Pre-Event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design
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Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference
Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing
Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods
Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects
On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models
Revisiting Event-Study Designs
The Promise and Pitfalls of Differences-in-Differences
How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions
Disarmed
A Bracketing Relationship between Difference-in-Differences and Lagged-Dependent-Variable Adjustment
Mobilize for Our Lives? School Shootings and Democratic Accountability in U.S. Elections
Obstacles to Estimating Voter ID Laws’ Effect on Turnout
Presidential Voting and the Local Economy
Critical Events and Attitude Change
Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods Using a Large-Scale Voter Mobilization Experiment
Of Nickell Bias and its Cures
How Much Is Minnesota Like Wisconsin? Assumptions and Counterfactuals in Causal Inference with Observational Data
The Statistics of Causal Inference
Testing the Accuracy of Regression Discontinuity Analysis Using Experimental Benchmarks
A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time‐Series Cross‐Sectional Data
An Equivalence Approach to Balance and Placebo Tests
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Reexamining the Effect of Mass Shootings on Public Support for Gun Control
Accounting for Pre-Treatment Exposure in Panel Data
The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics
The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections
Violence and Voting in the United States
Trauma and Turnout
| Citations per year | 8.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Highly cited | No |