Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting

Bibliographic Data

ID5101934
AuthorsAnton Kronborg (0000-0001-6642-9510, University of Oslo, corresponding author), Frederik Hedegaard (University of Copenhagen), Isak Klindt (University of Copenhagen), Clara Vandeweerdt (0000-0002-3024-1441, University of Copenhagen)
Year2024
Volume88
Pages102749
Publication date2024-04-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueElectoral Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0261-3794 • E-ISSN: 1873-6890
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749
OpenAlexW4391895761
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited41

This paper investigates whether wildfires are linked to increases in vote share for a green party in government. We argue that natural disasters move climate change action up on voters’ agendas, consequently affecting electoral behavior. Making use of the impact of an intense wildfire season in Sweden in 2018, we analyze changes in propensity to vote for a green governing party after experiencing wildfires in the election year. The Green party's vote share is significantly larger than expected in affected municipalities compared to unaffected municipalities, with an overall effect size of about 1 percentage point in the national election and 1.2 percentage points in the local election. These effect sizes are substantial given typical green party vote shares. Meanwhile, the incumbent Social Democratic party appears to have been electorally punished for the fires. The findings contribute to the literature on natural disasters and climate opinion, as well as on the impact of local conditions on electoral behavior

Economics · Geography · Government (linguistics · Natural (archaeology · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Voting · Disaster Management and Resilience · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fire effects on ecosystems · Law

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