Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation
An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7877032 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ansgar Belke (0000-0002-9743-4758, University of Duisburg‐Essen and Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)), Jens Klose (0000-0001-6234-5272, Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen Business School, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 55 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 1221-1238 |
| Publication date | 2017-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0021-9886 • E-ISSN: 1468-5965 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/jcms.12552 |
| OpenAlex | W2501620470 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 26 |
Is secular stagnation – a period of persistently lower growth such as that seen following the financial crisis of 2008–09 – a valid concern for euro‐area countries? We tackle this question using the well‐established Laubach‐Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. In light of the considerable increase in heterogeneity among EU member countries since the beginning of the financial crisis, we apply our approach to 12 euro‐area countries to provide country‐level answers to the question of secular stagnation. The presence of secular stagnation in a number of euro‐area countries has important implications for ECB decision‐making (such as, voting power in the Governing Council) and EU governance. Our results indicate that secular stagnation is not a significant threat to most euro‐area countries, with one possible exception: Greece
Econometrics · Economic stagnation · Economics · Financial crisis · Interest rate · International economics · Macroeconomics · Political science · Politics · Unobservable · Voting · Economic Theory and Policy · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles
U.S. Economic Prospects
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Is the View From the Eurotower Purely European? – National Divergence and Ecb Interest Rate Policy
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
The ECB Governing Council in an Enlarged Euro Area
The Interplay of Economic Reforms and Monetary Policy
Parliaments in the Euro Crisis
The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council
The Legal and Political Accountability Structure of ‘Post‐Crisis’ EU Economic Governance
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,38 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2024 (7) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |