Party crashers? Modeling genuinely new party development paths in Western Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7950477 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Vincenzo Emanuele (0000-0002-1589-5025, Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli), Allan Sikk (0000-0002-7829-6476, University College London, UK, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 883-895 |
| Publication date | 2021-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Party Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1354068820911355 |
| OpenAlex | W3013498947 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 10 |
| References cited | 60 |
Western Europe has recently experienced the emergence of successful new parties, but while single parties or countries have been extensively studied, insufficient attention has been devoted to this phenomenon from a comparative and long-term perspective. By relying on an original data set covering 20 countries and 344 parliamentary elections, this article presents the first analysis of West European ‘genuinely new parties’ (GNPs) across time, countries and party families. We hypothesize that the parties differ not only in terms of their short- and long-term success but have a range of distinct development paths. Through a latent growth model, we provide a classification of GNPs in terms of their breakthrough and initial performance. According to the specific trajectory followed by new parties in the first five elections they contest, the model suggests five different classes of new parties in Western Europe: ‘explosive’, ‘meteoric’, ‘contender’, ‘flat’ and ‘flop’. The article discusses the implications of these findings also regarding the ability of the model to produce estimates and predictions about the future electoral performances of GNPs
CONTEST · Development economics · Economics · Epistemology · Perspective (graphical · Phenomenon · Political economy · Political science · Sociology · Term (time · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Policy and Reform Studies · Artificial Intelligence
The structural breakthrough of new parties in 21st-century Europe
What constitutes a new party? The lack of a standard operationalization and the way forward
Pirate party trajectories in European multilevel systems
When institutions matter
Beyond the second-order national elections model
Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance
Genetic Imprints, Party Life Cycles, and Organizational Mortality
Squeezing Blood from a Turnip? The Resilience of Social Democratic Governmental Power in Western Europe (1871–2022)
Yet Another Populist Party? Understanding the Rise of Brothers of Italy
Reasons political parties lose their representatives. Combining party death and party failure
Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe
New Parties in Old Party Systems
New Parties in Government
Elections in Europe
Regionalist Parties in Western Europe
Altering Party Systems
Group-Based Modeling of Development
The Nationalization of Politics
Democracy Between Consolidation and Crisis
Estimation of Extended Mixed Models Using Latent Classes and Latent Processes
Building democratic institutions
Administrative behavior
New Politics in Western Europe
New Challenger Parties in Western Europe
Patterns of democracy
Electoral Systems and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe
A new party system in the making? The 2017 French presidential election
Economic indicators and electoral volatility
Growth patterns of white British and Pakistani children in the Born in Bradford cohort
Fleeing the centre
Estimating Party Positions across Countries and Time—A Dynamic Latent Variable Model for Manifesto Data
Economy, corruption or floating voters? Explaining the breakthroughs of anti-establishment reform parties in eastern Europe
Party system volatility, regeneration and de-institutionalization in Western Europe (1945–2015)
The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe
How unstable? Volatility and the genuinely new parties in Eastern Europe
Left-Libertarian Parties
New politics and party systems
The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-Party System
Five Stars and a Cricket. Beppe Grillo Shakes Italian Politics
Institutional Arrangements and the Success of New Parties in Old Democracies
A New Approach to Estimating Electoral Instability in Parties
Modeling New Party Performance
Fighting the system? Populist radical right parties and party system change
Prophets, Purifiers and Prolocutors
The influence of programmatic diversity on the formation of new political parties
Party novelty and congruence
Party System Change
Party novelty
Out with the old, in with the ‘‘new
Party system closure and openness
A growing impact of new parties
New party performance after breakthrough
Party Non-Systems
Why new parties
Formation and Success of New Parties
On the Study of New Parties
Stealth democracy and the support for new and challenger parties
Origins of party formation and new party success in advanced democracies
Meteoric trajectory
Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries
Niche Party Success and Mainstream Party Policy Shifts - How Green and Radical Right Parties Differ in Their Impact
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Compulsory voting, party stability and electoral advantage in Australia
"The "Alternative for Germany
Competition Between Unequals
| Unique citing works | 10 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,5 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 10 |