Estimating Party Positions across Countries and Time—A Dynamic Latent Variable Model for Manifesto Data
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7971071 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas König (0000-0002-1797-6662, University of Mannheim, corresponding author), Moritz Marbach (0000-0002-7101-2821, University of Mannheim), Moritz Osnabrügge (0000-0002-6177-1111, University of Mannheim) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 468-491 |
| Publication date | 2013-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Analysis (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1047-1987 • E-ISSN: 1476-4989 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/pan/mpt003 |
| OpenAlex | W2164535801 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 47 |
| References cited | 69 |
This article presents a new method for estimating positions of political parties across country- and time-specific contexts by introducing a latent variable model for manifesto data. We estimate latent positions and exploit bridge observations to make the scales comparable. We also incorporate expert survey data as prior information in the estimation process to avoid ex post facto interpretation of the latent space. To illustrate the empirical contribution of our method, we estimate the left-right positions of 388 parties competing in 238 elections across twenty-five countries and over sixty years. Compared to the puzzling volatility of existing estimates, we find that parties more modestly change their left-right positions over time. We also show that estimates without country- and time-specific bias parameters risk serious, systematic bias in about two-thirds of our data. This suggests that researchers should carefully consider the comparability of party positions across countries and/or time
Comparability · Econometrics · Economics · Estimation · Latent variable · Latent variable model · Manifesto · Political science · Statistics · Variable (mathematics · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Mathematics · Media Influence and Politics · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Artificial Intelligence · Law
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| Unique citing works | 47 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,92 |
| Citation span | 2014 - 2025 (12) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 47 |