Strong state, weak enforcement
Bureaucratic forbearance of China’s social insurance policies
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8134841 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Hao Zhang (0000-0003-0232-5565, New York University), Ye Zhang (0009-0002-2442-4804, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-21 |
| Publication date | 2026-02-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Science Research and Methods (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2049-8470 • E-ISSN: 2049-8489 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/psrm.2026.10091 |
| OpenAlex | W7131300792 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 76 |
Why would a strong authoritarian state choose not to enforce its own policy? We extend the theory of forbearance to autocracies, highlighting its distinct incentives and characteristics. Using China’s social insurance policies as a case study, we argue that promotion-driven local officials under intense interjurisdictional competition allow firms to evade payroll taxes to boost economic performance and advance their careers. This effect is most significant among domestic private firms and foreign firms. We conduct one of the first systematic analyses of firm-level social insurance contributions in an authoritarian context, supplemented by individual-level survey data. Our findings show that bureaucratic forbearance of China’s social insurance policies has a pro-business bias, undermining the policies originally designed to address inequalities during market reforms
Authoritarianism · Bureaucracy · Forbearance · Incentive · Monopoly · Payroll · Social insurance · State (computer science · China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance · Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis · Healthcare Systems and Reforms
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |