The Role of Maths, Science, and English/Welsh GCSE Attainment in Post-16 Subject Progression
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8406183 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sophie Bartlett (0000-0001-6958-0910, Cardiff University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Pages | 1-28 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-02 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Journal of Educational Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-1005 • E-ISSN: 1467-8527 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00071005.2026.2631424 |
| OpenAlex | W7133655141 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 19 |
This study investigates the predictive value of subject-specific attainment in GCSE maths, science, and English/Welsh language on AS-level outcomes across six universally popular subjects. Logistic regression models estimate the independent effects of prior attainment and school-factors on AS-level success based on administrative data from 8010 pupils in state-maintained schools in Wales. GCSE science attainment was a consistently strong predictor of success across both STEM and humanities subjects, suggesting broader academic utility than typically acknowledged. These findings challenge prevailing policy- and school-level emphasis on maths and English as the priorities for post-16 readiness, subsequently calling for a reconsideration of how ‘core’ subjects are conceptualised and prioritised within educational policy, performance metrics, and school-level guidance. Additionally, the analysis revealed nuanced effects of school language medium and geography, with urban and English-medium schools generally associated with higher AS-level pass rates. Given the attrition between AS- and A-levels, the AS-level attainment focus provides critical insights into early post-16 educational progression not captured by an A-level focus. By focusing on Wales, a bilingual and rural context underrepresented in UK education research, the study contributes novel insights into subject progression, highlighting the need for more subject-specific approaches to educational planning and intervention
Educational attainment · Educational research · Subject (documents) · Teaching method · Educational Theory and Curriculum Studies · Mathematics Education and Programs · Student Assessment and Feedback
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| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |