Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica

Bibliographic Data

ID9224461
AuthorsDaniela Liggett (0000-0003-4184-5205, University of Canterbury), Bob Frame (0000-0003-2447-4174, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research), Neil Gilbert (0000-0003-4576-7312), Fraser Morgan (0000-0002-7964-3361, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research)
Year2017
Volume53
Issue5
Pages459-478
Publication date2017-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePolar Record (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0032-2474 • E-ISSN: 1475-3057
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s0032247417000390
OpenAlexW2753443167
LanguageEN
Citations received15
References cited47

The future is uncertain for Antarctica, with many possibilities – some more plausible, others more preferable. Indeed, the region and its governance regime may be reaching (or may have reached) a crossroads moment as a result of a series of challenges, including the changing Antarctic climate and environment, increasing human activity, shifting values among Antarctic states and a low-cost, somewhat benign governance regime (the Antarctic Treaty System). Within this context there are a number of interdependent drivers that are likely to influence Antarctica's future over, say, 25 years: global environmental and socio-economic developments; Antarctic governance; Antarctic research, including national Antarctic programme operations; and Antarctic tourism. The research presented here involved a thorough examination of Antarctic literature on current Antarctic developments and challenges, and an assessment of global trends. Scenarios were developed through a facilitated workshop process. From these, four future scenarios were developed based on interactions between these drivers. The resulting scenarios provide a dynamic, evolving possibility space to be explored as a means of understanding where Antarctic issues might evolve, depending on the growth or diminishing importance of drivers. In turn these suggest that more structured polar futures are needed based on formal quantitative and qualitative data

Antarctic treaty · Business · Climate change · Context (archaeology) · Corporate governance · Environmental resource management · Futures contract · Geography · Interdependence · Political science · Tourism · Arctic and Russian Policy Studies · Coastal and Marine Management · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography · Polar Research and Ecology

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