General, I Have Fought Just as Many Nuclear Wars as You Have”
Forecasts, Future Scenarios, and the Politics of Armageddon
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9420128 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Matthew Connelly (0000-0001-8030-4140), Matt Fay, Giulia Ferrini, Micki Kaufman, Will Leonard, Harrison Monsky, Ryan A Musto (0000-0002-5701-0571), Ryan Musto, Taunton Paine (0000-0001-9037-4556), Nicholas Standish, Lydia Walker (0000-0002-9526-6033) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 117 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1431-1460 |
| Publication date | 2012-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The American Historical Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0002-8762 • E-ISSN: 1937-5239 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ahr/117.5.1431 |
| OpenAlex | W2040041619 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 10 |
HISTORIANS HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT ignoring the past or misapplying its lessons can lead to fatal mistakes. But governments have shown far more interest in the promise of prevision. The United States, in particular, has made a massive investment in intelligence estimates, future scenarios, simulations, and technology forecasts since World War II. The sums expended on official history and archives are trifling in comparison.1 In some ways, this is an old story. Political leaders sought the advice of oracles and soothsayers long before historians arrived on the scene. What has changed is the tremendous growth in bureaucratic structures that are specifically designed to provide foresight. There has also been a qualitative transformation in the sophistication of forecasting and modeling. The development of official efforts to anticipate future events and trends was a trend in itself, one that has become worldwide
Bureaucracy · Economics · Futures studies · Investment (military · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Social science · Sociology · Sophistication · Computer Science · Law · Nuclear Issues and Defense
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Forum
The Role of Forecasts in Planning for Energy Infrastructure
Would U.S. Leaders Push the Button? Wargames and the Sources of Nuclear Restraint
America’s most precious resource’
The Magicians of Nuclear Strategy
Resisting Narrative Closure
Pax Technologica
| Unique citing works | 10 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2016 - 2026 (11) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 10 |