Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9705358 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charles F Manski (0000-0001-7260-7686, Northwestern University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 121 |
| Issue | 554 |
| Pages | F261-F289 |
| Publication date | 2011-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02457.x |
| OpenAlex | W2120241330 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 25 |
Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and give illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, duelling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude and media overreach
Economics · Political science · Economic Policies and Impacts · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,14 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2026 (15) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 30 |