The Criminogenic Consequence of Export Slowdown

Evidence from Millions of Court Judgement Documents in China

Bibliographic Data

ID9713617
AuthorsHong Ma (0009-0000-0405-6528, Tsinghua University), Yu Pan (0009-0004-2364-8675, Xiamen University), Mingzhi Xu (0000-0001-9304-5045, Peking University)
Year2025
Volume135
Issue671
Pages2242-2275
Publication date2025-09-24
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Economic Journal (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297
PublisherOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/ej/ueaf024
OpenAlexW4409352795
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited77

This paper highlights the criminogenic consequence of the remarkable slowdown in China’s exports in recent years. By applying textual analysis to millions of judgement documents from all levels of courts in China, we construct measures of crime rates that vary across cities over time. Our estimations, using a shift-share instrumental variable, reveal a higher increase in crime rates in cities that experience a more severe export slowdown. The effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing-specialising regions, where there is a higher concentration of young people, migrants and school dropouts. Negative export shocks also lead to reduced job opportunities, decreased labour earnings for migrants and worsened psychological health. Alternative mechanisms, such as spending on social stability, appear to play a minor role. A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on our baseline estimation suggests that approximately 13.1% of the interquartile difference in crime rates across cities can be explained by differences in their exposure to the export slowdown

Business · China · Economics · International economics · International trade · Political science · Slowdown · Corruption and Economic Development · Law · Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems · Wildlife Conservation and Criminology Analyses

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