Belief Elicitation
A Horse Race among Truth Serums
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9716634 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stefan T Trautmann (0000-0002-0094-8841, Heidelberg University), Gijs Van De Kuilen (0000-0002-8961-2817, Tilburg University) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 125 |
| Issue | 589 |
| Pages | 2116-2135 |
| Publication date | 2015-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1111/ecoj.12160 |
| OpenAlex | W3122286037 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 22 |
| References cited | 57 |
We pit non-incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two-player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method. Beliefs from incentivised methods are better predictors of participants' own behaviour compared to introspection. However, introspection performs equally well as the truth serums in terms of accuracy and additivity. We also find that correction for risk aversion improves the additivity of scoring rule belief reports
Biology · Horse · Horse racing · Race (biology · Sociology · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Gender Studies · Psychology · Social Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 22 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,38 |
| Citation span | 2010 - 2026 (17) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 21 |