The Costs of Economic Nationalism
Evidence from the Brexit Experiment
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9720078 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Benjamin Born (0000-0003-1617-8025, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR), Gernot J Müller (University of Tübingen and CEPR, corresponding author), Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn and CEPR), Petr Sedláček (0009-0004-1421-5843, University of Oxford and CEPR) |
| Year | 2019 |
| Volume | 129 |
| Issue | 623 |
| Pages | 2722-2744 |
| Publication date | 2019-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ej/uez020 |
| OpenAlex | W2890624699 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 36 |
| References cited | 48 |
Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy
Brexit · Economic cost · Economics · European union · Identification (biology · International economics · Macroeconomics · Microeconomics · Nationalism · Political science · Politics · Public economics · Referendum · Economic Policies and Impacts · Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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| Unique citing works | 36 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,14 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 36 |