Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9725010
AutoresSambit Bhattacharyya (0000-0001-5932-6943, University of Sussex, autor correspondente), Michael Keller (0000-0002-2886-0964, University of Sussex)
Ano2021
Volume88
Fascículo349
Páginas129-166
Data de publicação2021-01-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ecca.12350
OpenAlexW2738479165
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas1
Referências citadas40

We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single‐risk and multiple‐risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single‐risk model especially in a non‐election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple‐risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non‐resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival

Business · Economics · Political science · Politics · Resource (disambiguation) · Computer Science · International Development and Aid · Law · Mining and Resource Management · Natural Resources and Economic Development