What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

Bibliographic Data

ID9727863
AuthorsRüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame and ifo), David Baqaee (University of California, Los Angeles), Christian Bayer (0000-0001-6369-6787, University of Bonn and HCM), Moritz Kuhn (0000-0002-8850-8487, University of Mannheim), Andreas Löschel (0000-0002-3366-8053, Ruhr University Bochum), Benjamin Moll (LSE, corresponding author), Andreas Peichl (0000-0002-0680-8321, ifo), Karen Pittel (ifo), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Leibniz Institute for the World Economy)
Year2024
Volume91
Issue364
Pages1157-1200
Publication date2024-10-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEconomica (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ecca.12546
OpenAlexW4400496761
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited16

This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut‐off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi‐sector open‐economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut‐off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP

Economic system · Economics · Energy (signal processing) · German · German economy · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Production (economics) · Russian economy · Shock (circulatory) · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Global Energy Security and Policy · Market Dynamics and Volatility

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