Breaking out of conventions

How scenario planners can increase their reflexivity regarding societal imaginaries

Bibliographic Data

ID9842870
AuthorsLucas Rutting (0000-0001-9236-954X, Institute for Sustainable Development, corresponding author), Joost Vervoort (0000-0001-8289-7429, Institute for Sustainable Development), Heleen Mees (0000-0002-4401-6106, Institute for Sustainable Development), Peter Driessen (0000-0002-0724-6666, Institute for Sustainable Development)
Year2024
Volume160
Pages103395
Publication date2024-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFutures (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.futures.2024.103395
OpenAlexW4396640529
LanguageEN
Citations received11
References cited52

Futures imagined in scenario processes reflect both stakeholder perspectives and broader societal imaginaries: collectively-held, institutionally-stabilized visions of the future. The presence of imaginaries has mostly remained implicit in studies of scenario planning, especially in development contexts. We argue that scenario planning will benefit from reflexivity regarding imaginaries. Here, reflexivity refers to an awareness regarding different perspectives, assumptions, values, and—oft-hidden—politics at play. We developed a framework of relevant imaginaries and assessed how and to what extent these are expressed in scenario narratives, through analyzing seven scenario sets focused on agriculture, food security and climate change in the Global South. Our results show that neoliberal and sustainable development imaginaries are dominant in these scenarios. Imaginaries from the Global South are scarcely represented—arguably because of that, we observe few regional perspectives on potential challenges in these scenario sets. We conclude that the scenario sets offer effective critique on neoliberal mechanisms and global development dynamics, but do not provide significant room for transformational alternatives from the Global South. We argue that opening up explorative scenario planning to more pluralistic conceptions of the future can greatly enhance its reflexivity, and a representative mix of imaginaries allows for scenario planning that leads to more transformational policies

Economics · Environmental ethics · Futures contract · Futures studies · Management · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Public relations · Reflexivity · Scenario planning · Social science · Sociology · Transformational leadership · Vision · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Computer Science · Environmental and Social Impact Assessments · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access