Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? Evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9844528 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Edmond Totin (0000-0003-3377-6190, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, corresponding author), James R A Butler (0000-0001-8333-947X, CSIRO Land and Water), James Butler (0000-0001-6870-888X), James R Butler, Amadou Sidibé (0000-0001-5239-824X, Institut Polytechnique Rural de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée), Samuel Partey, Samuel T Partey (0000-0001-5223-0367, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics), Philip K Thornton (0000-0002-1854-0182, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security), Ramadjita Tabo (International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 96 |
| Pages | 44-56 |
| Publication date | 2018-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.futures.2017.11.005 |
| OpenAlex | W2775698179 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 25 |
| References cited | 50 |
The potential of participatory scenario processes to catalyse individual and collective transformation \nand policy change is emphasised in several theoretical reflections. Participatory scenario \nprocesses are believed to enhance participants’ systems understanding, learning, networking and \nsubsequent changes in practices. However, limited empirical evidence is available to prove these \nassumptions. This study aimed to contribute to this knowledge gap. It evaluates whether these \noutcomes had resulted from the scenario planning exercise and the extent to which they can \ncontribute to transformational processes. The research focused on a district level case study in \nrural Mali which examined food security and necessary policy changes in the context of climate \nchange. The analyses of interviews with 26 participants carried out 12 months after the workshop \nsuggested positive changes in learning and networking, but only limited influence on systems \nunderstanding. There was limited change in practice, but the reported changes occurred at the \nindividual level, and no policy outcomes were evident. However, by building the adaptive capacity \nof participants, the scenario process had laid the foundation for ongoing collective action, \nand potential institutional and policy transformation. We conclude that to enhance the resilience \nof agricultural and food systems under climate change, participatory scenario processes require a \nbroader range of cross-scale actors’ engagement to support transformational changes. Such \nprocess will both catalyse deeper learning and more effective link with national level policymaking \nprocess. In addition, individual scenario planning exercises are unlikely to generate \nsufficient learning and reflection, and instead they should form one component of more extensive \nand deliberate stakeholder engagement, learning and evaluation processes
Agriculture · Business · Citizen journalism · Climate change · Collective action · Context (archaeology · Economic growth · Economics · Environmental resource management · Food security · Geography · Knowledge management · Participatory action research · Political science · Politics · Process management · Psychological resilience · Public relations · Scenario planning · Social learning · Stakeholder · Stakeholder engagement · Transformational leadership · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Computer Science · Marketing · Psychology · Social Psychology · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
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| Unique citing works | 25 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,57 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 23 |