Intelligence success and failure

Since being pioneered by Roberta Wohlstetter in the 1960s, intelligence failure has taken up a significant share of intelligence studies. Scholars and practitioners of no little pedigree have tried to answer the question of ‘why intelligence fails’, and the closely related, but not identical, one of ‘why we are sometimes surprised’. It is a rich literature, but on a big topic, with room for development. Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott's contribution advances the discussion only partially. The explicit aim of the book is to refute Wohlstetter's view that surprises happen despite the work of ‘honest, dedicated and intelligent men’ (p. 235), a goal that is accomplished in a way that ignores much of the literature in the field since. A key question with each new addition in any field is: does it bring anything new to the game? By applying interesting insights from the realm of psychology, Intelligence success and failure: the human factor gives us a better understanding of why policy-makers sometimes do not ‘hear’ clearly articulated warnings of surprise military attack. Yet at the same time, the book does not fully address intelligence and the role of the state in forecasting attacks; readers are not told why intelligence analysts sometimes miss warnings. Rather, the authors focus more on why narcissistic leaders do not listen to their subordinates, and on that count present some interesting insights

Epistemology · Field (mathematics · Human intelligence · Political science · Realm · Surprise · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Law · Philosophy · Psychology · Social Psychology

• The vanishing watchman

  Open Access•Ehud Eiran, Ofer Guterman et al.•Intelligence & National Security•2025

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