Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of Covid-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Bibliographic Data

ID15508792
AuthorsKathleen Mccoll (Inserm, corresponding author), Marion Debin (0000-0002-5146-7642, Inserm), Cécile Souty (0000-0002-4990-5201, Inserm), Caroline Guerrisi (0000-0002-2425-4457, Inserm), Clément Turbelin (0000-0002-5074-9541, Inserm), Alessandra Falchi (0000-0003-0799-1460, Université de Corse Pascal Paoli), Isabelle Bonmarin (0000-0002-7384-9828, Santé Publique France), Daniela Paolotti (0000-0003-1356-3470, Institute for Scientific Interchange), Chinelo Obi (0000-0002-1652-6627, Public Health England), Jim Duggan (0000-0001-8554-2594, Ollscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway), Yamir Moreno (0000-0002-0895-1893, Universidad de Zaragoza), Ania Wisniak (0000-0002-3942-2134, University of Geneva), Antoine Flahault (0000-0002-6957-2977, University of Geneva), Thierry Blanchon (0000-0001-9623-3906, Inserm), Vittoria Colizza (0000-0002-2113-2374, Inserm), Jocelyn Raude (0000-0001-8020-4975, Inserm)
Year2021
Volume19
Issue1
Pages436-436
Publication date2021-12-31
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
PublisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph19010436
PMID35010707
OpenAlexW4206651887
LanguageEN
Citations received21
References cited100

Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one's risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network ( n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries-France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal

Context (archaeology · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Disease · Geography · Harm · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Optimism · Optimism bias · Pandemic · Climate Change and Health Impacts · COVID-19 and Mental Health · Medicine · Optimism, Hope, and Well-being · Psychology · Social Psychology