Robert Vautard
Biographic Data
| ID | 2058880 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Robert Vautard |
| GIVEN NAMES | Robert |
| FAMILY NAME | Vautard |
| SIGNATURE | VAUTARD R |
| AFFILIATIONS | Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5544-9903 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 20 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 20 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2014 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Attribution and projection of regional winter wind energy drought in Europe
The decline of surface wind speed in many regions of the world is an important phenomenon as it is potentially expected to decrease wind power production. It is not clear, however, whether this decline takes the form of a gradual wind speed decrease or an increase in ‘wind energy droughts’ (WED), long periods with weak wind speeds. Both types of wind speed reductions contribute to a decline in wind power production. Prolonged and more frequent WE…
De la dynamique à la composition atmosphérique
Cet article présente les recherches faites au LMD sur la composition atmosphérique, c’est à dire la simulation numérique de la météorologie et des polluants atmosphériques. Ces travaux ont permis d’analyser des campagnes de mesures sur la pollution, en France puis en Europe, puis partout dans le monde ainsi que de mettre en place des chaines de prévision de la pollution
Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979
Heat extremes have been increasing both in frequency and in intensity in most land regions of the world, and this increase has been attributed to human activities. In the last decade, many outstanding and record shattering heat extremes have occurred worldwide, triggering fears of a nonlinear behaviour or an ‘acceleration’ in the development of heat conditions, considering the warming level when the event occurred. Here we show that the evolution…
À l'épreuve de la communication
La vulgarisation des travaux du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (Giec) suscite des incompréhensions, voire des contresens, en particulier du fait des scénarios qu'il propose. Rencontre avec trois de ses auteurs
Climate impact of aircraft-induced cirrus assessed from satellite observations before and during Covid-19
Aircraft produce condensation trails, which are thought to increase high-level cloudiness under certain conditions. However the magnitude of such an effect and whether this contributes substantially to the radiative forcing due to the aviation sector remain uncertain. The very substantial, near-global reduction in air traffic in response to the COVID-19 outbreak offers an unprecedented opportunity to identify the anthropogenic contribution to the…
Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe
Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for…
Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe
The influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference between extreme and mean trends is not significant in other European regions. However, it is less clear how to quantify the changes in different processe…
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes
The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in …
Evaluation of the WRF-UCM mesoscale model and ECMWF global operational forecasts over the Paris region in the prospect of tracer atmospheric transport modeling
The quantification of CO2 emissions from cities using atmospheric measurements requires accurate knowledge of the atmospheric transport. Complex urban terrains significantly modify surface roughness, augment surface energy budgets, and create heat islands, all of which lead to lower horizontal winds and enhanced convection over urban areas. The question remains whether these processes should be included in atmospheric transport models that are us…
Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe
The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other …
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming
The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 C, or even 1.5 C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric p…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event a…
Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events
We present a new method that allows a separation of the attribution of human influence in extreme events into changes in atmospheric flows and changes in other processes. Assuming two data sets of model simulations or observations representing a natural, or 'counter-factual' climate, and the actual, or 'factual' climate, we show how flow analogs used across data sets can provide quantitative estimates of each contribution to the changes in probab…
Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario
Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse …
Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: Present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble
de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publis ou non, manant des tablissements d'enseignement et de recherche franais ou trangers, des laboratoires publics ou privs
Winter season mortality: Will climate warming bring benefits
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cit…
Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe
Euro-Cordex: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communitie…
The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
A global warming of 2 C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, w…
Euro-Cordex: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communitie…
The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
A global warming of 2 C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, w…
Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: Present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble
de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publis ou non, manant des tablissements d'enseignement et de recherche franais ou trangers, des laboratoires publics ou privs
Winter season mortality: Will climate warming bring benefits
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cit…
Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event a…
Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events
We present a new method that allows a separation of the attribution of human influence in extreme events into changes in atmospheric flows and changes in other processes. Assuming two data sets of model simulations or observations representing a natural, or 'counter-factual' climate, and the actual, or 'factual' climate, we show how flow analogs used across data sets can provide quantitative estimates of each contribution to the changes in probab…
Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario
Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse …
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Evaluation of the WRF-UCM mesoscale model and ECMWF global operational forecasts over the Paris region in the prospect of tracer atmospheric transport modeling
The quantification of CO2 emissions from cities using atmospheric measurements requires accurate knowledge of the atmospheric transport. Complex urban terrains significantly modify surface roughness, augment surface energy budgets, and create heat islands, all of which lead to lower horizontal winds and enhanced convection over urban areas. The question remains whether these processes should be included in atmospheric transport models that are us…
Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe
The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other …
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming
The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 C, or even 1.5 C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric p…
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes
The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in …
Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in Western Europe
Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree in many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality of several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played a role in the occurrence of these events has been of large interest to scientists, media and decision makers. However, the outstanding nature of these events poses challenges for…
Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe
The influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference between extreme and mean trends is not significant in other European regions. However, it is less clear how to quantify the changes in different processe…
Climate impact of aircraft-induced cirrus assessed from satellite observations before and during Covid-19
Aircraft produce condensation trails, which are thought to increase high-level cloudiness under certain conditions. However the magnitude of such an effect and whether this contributes substantially to the radiative forcing due to the aviation sector remain uncertain. The very substantial, near-global reduction in air traffic in response to the COVID-19 outbreak offers an unprecedented opportunity to identify the anthropogenic contribution to the…
De la dynamique à la composition atmosphérique
Cet article présente les recherches faites au LMD sur la composition atmosphérique, c’est à dire la simulation numérique de la météorologie et des polluants atmosphériques. Ces travaux ont permis d’analyser des campagnes de mesures sur la pollution, en France puis en Europe, puis partout dans le monde ainsi que de mettre en place des chaines de prévision de la pollution
Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979
Heat extremes have been increasing both in frequency and in intensity in most land regions of the world, and this increase has been attributed to human activities. In the last decade, many outstanding and record shattering heat extremes have occurred worldwide, triggering fears of a nonlinear behaviour or an ‘acceleration’ in the development of heat conditions, considering the warming level when the event occurred. Here we show that the evolution…
À l'épreuve de la communication
La vulgarisation des travaux du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (Giec) suscite des incompréhensions, voire des contresens, en particulier du fait des scénarios qu'il propose. Rencontre avec trois de ses auteurs
Attribution and projection of regional winter wind energy drought in Europe
The decline of surface wind speed in many regions of the world is an important phenomenon as it is potentially expected to decrease wind power production. It is not clear, however, whether this decline takes the form of a gradual wind speed decrease or an increase in ‘wind energy droughts’ (WED), long periods with weak wind speeds. Both types of wind speed reductions contribute to a decline in wind power production. Prolonged and more frequent WE…
Environmental Science (18 works) · Climatology (17 works) · Climate change (15 works) · Geography (13 works) · Climate variability and models (12 works) · Geology (12 works) · Meteorology (11 works) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (10 works) · Atmospheric sciences (9 works) · Climate model (8 works)