Winter season mortality
Will climate warming bring benefits
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15544995 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Patrick L Kinney (0000-0003-2801-1003, Columbia University, corresponding author), Joel Schwartz (0000-0001-6168-378X, Harvard University), Mathilde Pascal (0000-0003-4744-5923, Institut de Veille Sanitaire), Elisaveta P Petkova (0000-0003-3620-3232, Columbia University), Elisaveta Petkova, Alain Le Tertre (0000-0001-5346-216X, Institut de Veille Sanitaire), Sylvia Medina (Institut de Veille Sanitaire), Robert Vautard (0000-0001-5544-9903) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 064016-064016 |
| Publication date | 2015-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016 |
| PMID | 26495037 |
| OpenAlex | W1592099504 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 19 |
| References cited | 45 |
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies
Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Excess mortality · Geography · Global warming · Mortality rate · Range (aeronautics · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Demography · Ecology
Effect of ambient temperature and other environmental factors on stroke emergency department visits in Beijing
The Rhythm of Death. Seasonality of Mortality in Amsterdam, 1812–1931
Rising trend and regional disparities of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient low temperature, 1990-2019
Tackling the health impacts of climate change in the twenty-first century
Heat or Cold
Burden and Risk Factors for Cold-Related Illness and Death in New York City
Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies
Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda
Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands
Links between influenza epidemics, weather characteristics and all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, 1982–2020
The wintertime brown adipose tissue thermogenesis of New York City residents amidst climate change
Potential impacts of cool and green roofs on temperature-related mortality in the Greater Boston region
Greater understanding is need of whether warmer and shorter winters associated with climate change could reduce winter mortality
No detectable decrease in extreme cold-related mortality in Canada from Arctic sea ice loss
Years of life lost and life expectancy attributable to ambient temperature
Implications of climate variability and change on urban and human health
Evolving threats in an unforgiving climate
Influence of extreme heat waves as an aggravating factor in the cause of death from cardiovascular diseases in Southeast Brazil
Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976–2019
Relation between Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality
The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.
International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality
Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality
Heat-Related Deaths during the July 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago
Weather-Related Mortality
Winter mortality in a warming climate
Early increases in ischaemic heart disease mortality dissociated from and later changes associated with respiratory mortality after cold weather in south east England
Excess winter mortality in Europe
Heat, cold and climate change
Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wave
Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes
| Unique citing works | 19 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,73 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 19 |