The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

Bibliographic Data

ID15545016
AuthorsRobert Vautard (0000-0001-5544-9903, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, corresponding author), Andreas Gobiet (0000-0001-5751-2961, University of Graz), Stefan Sobolowski (0000-0002-6422-4535, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research), Erik Kjellström (0000-0002-6495-1038, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), Annemiek I Stegehuis (0000-0002-7955-5847, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Annemiek Stegehuis, Paul Watkiss (0000-0001-9940-976X, Paul Watkiss Associates), Thomas Mendlik (University of Graz), Oskar Landgren (0000-0002-6264-8502, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Grigory Nikulin (0000-0002-4226-8713, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), Claas Teichmann (0000-0003-2478-7074, German Climate Computing Centre), Daniela Jacob (0000-0002-5249-4044, German Climate Computing Centre)
Year2014
Volume9
Issue3
Pages034006-034006
Publication date2014-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006
OpenAlexW2116076356
LanguageEN
Citations received31
References cited37

A global warming of 2 C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models' climate sensitivity

Abrupt climate change · Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate commitment · Climate model · Climatology · Downscaling · Effects of global warming · Geography · Global warming · Meteorology · Precipitation · Range (aeronautics · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Ecology · Geology

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