John T Williams
Biographic Data
| ID | 3626848 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John T Williams |
| GIVEN NAMES | John T |
| FAMILY NAME | Williams |
| SIGNATURE | WILLIAMS J T |
| AFFILIATIONS | Indiana University Bloomington |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0647-6144 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 581 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1944 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 10 |
Artemisia annua and Artemisia afra extracts exhibit strong bactericidal activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Our results indicate that Artemisia extracts have an enormous potential for treatment of TB and M. abscessus infections, and that these plants contain bactericidal compounds in addition to AN. Combination of extracts with existing antibiotics may not only improve treatment outcomes but also reduce the emergence of resistance to other drugs
Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
For over two decades, researchers have provided evidence that the yield curve, specifically the spread between long- and short-term interest rates, contains useful information for signaling future recessions. Despite these findings, forecasters appear to have generally placed too little weight on the yield spread when projecting declines in the aggregate economy. Indeed, we show that professional forecasters are worse at predicting recessions a f…
Local Enforcement and Better Forests
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
The natural rate of interest—the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation—plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation of the natural rate of interest, however, has received little attention. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate jointly time-varying natural rates of interest and output and trend growth. We find a close link between the natural rate of interest and t…
Does Privatization Protect Natural Resources? Property Rights and Forests in Guatemala
Objectives . Property rights are central to debates about natural resource policy. Governments traditionally have been seen as the appropriate custodians of natural resources for their citizens. More recently, many argue the privatization of property rights will ensure that users have incentives to manage their resources well. Common property, to the extent it is discussed at all, is seen as leading to the tragedy of the commons. We evaluate thes…
A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model
Time series of event counts are common in political science and other social science applications. Presently, there are few satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in such data and accounting for the dynamic processes in event counts regression. We address this issue by building on earlier work for persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weighted moving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journal of Political S…
Dynamic Modeling for Persistent Event-Count Time Series
cycles in international relations. Scholars use event-count models to analyze a wide variety of political science data. For example, the large sets of data on cooperative and conflictual international events often use event-count models (Huang, Kim, and Wu 1992; Sayrs 1992; Volgy and Imwalle 1995). These data have also been analyzed using time-series methods, particularly when transformed into indices of conflict and cooperation that consider the…
Long-Memoried Processes, Unit Roots, and Causal Inference in Political Science
Theory: It has been argued that because researchers have not taken into account the longmemoried natures of certain political processes-especially the fact that some political time series appear to contain unit roots-some users of level Vector Autoregressions may have reached erroneous conclusions about the validity of important causal relationships and model specifications. Hypothesis: For the first time, this argument is evaluated. The difficul…
The Political Economy of Corporate Taxation
ion is not necessary. Rather, we make our case on more substantive grounds. 9One reviewer suggested that corporate tax burden rather than tax rate is the most appropriate dependent variable. We disagree, because we would predict that corporate tax burdens would decline over time even when tax rates remain stable. This happens because government expenditures, largely a function of entitlements, have increased over time, and This content downloaded…
Empirically Discriminating between Chaotic and Stochastic Time Series
In recent years, more and more social scientists have begun to view the world as inherently probabilistic (Suppes 1984; Gigerenzer 1987). Without detailing the philosophical underpinnings of such a view, this subtle movement away from deterministic positivism has been fed, in large part, by a recognition of the indeterminacy of strategic interaction among individuals and the inevitability of uncertainty in social relations (Boudon 1986). Chaos th…
Breaking the war‐economy link
We present evidence that the causal link from world production to war severity (as documented by Goldstein) begins to break down by the time of the Franco‐Prussian War. To explain this finding we develop a simple choice‐theoretic model based on the assumption of a long‐term decline in the (average) net economic benefits of war, as perceived by policymakers. We derive some additional macro‐level implications of this micro‐level model and discuss t…
Policy Uncertainty in Two-Level Games: Examples of Correlated Equilibria
Recent research on two-level game models emphasizes the close interaction between the domestic and foreign policies of states, but these states are usually interpreted as unitary rational actors and these two policy arenas are generally kept separate. We develop integrated models of multi-level policy games in which the locus of strategic action remains at the individual (or group) level. Social choice theory identifies fundamental dilemmas assoc…
Dynamic Change, Specification Uncertainty, and Bayesian Vector Autoregression Analysis
The analysis of time-series data is fraught with problems of specification uncertainty and dynamic instability. Vector autoregression (VAR) is one attempt to overcome specification problems in time-series analysis, but this methodology has been criticized for being unparsimonious and potentially unstable through time.1This article describes an important extension of VAR, one using Bayesian methods and allowing for time-varying parameters. These e…
What Goes Around Comes Around: Unit Root Tests and Cointegration
At one time, the lag time for the implementation of methods from economics and other disciplines in political science was quite long, reflecting the newness of political methodology as well as a lack of statistical training. The articles by Ostrom and Smith and by Durr (in this volume) represent a departure from this longstanding lag time associated with political methodology. These articles, as well as others (e.g., Beck 1992), are using the met…
The Dimension of Superpower Rivalry: A Dynamic Factor Analysis
The security policies of the United States and the Soviet Union can be interpreted as manifestations of a single “rivalry system.” If each state's security policies are driven by the same underlying factors, then any effort to separate the contributions of internal and external determinants of the arms race is essentially misleading. We use dynamic factor analysis to evaluate whether an unobservable dimension of rivalry explains the dynamics exhi…
The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy
Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953-1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving preside…
Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics
In many respects political scientists agree about how best to model political processes. But we disagree about how to translate our theories into structural equations; each of us seems to have our own structural equation model of the same theory. This disagreement is a serious impediment to theory building. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a means of circumventing this problem. We explain the logic of this alternative modeling strategy and examine …
Change and Stability in Superpower Rivalry
We investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry. Participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors, and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system. Analysis of vector autoregression models of U.S. and Soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and U.S. gross national…
Sophisticated Reaction in the U.S.-Soviet Arms Race: Evidence of Rational Expectations
Because of the pervasive security rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, information about the expected future behavior of the rival state proves useful to domestic political actors competing to influence budgetary allocations. This article examines the hypothesis that, in the aggregate, this process of sophisticated reaction approximates the behavior of two unitary rational actors capable of forming rational expectations of each…
Attributing Presidential Responsibility for National Economic Problems
Several recent studies of economic voting have challenged a central assumption of the reward-punishment theory of retrospective voting, that voters hold the incumbent party responsible for all manner of economic fluctuations. Our research expands on prior work in several ways by specifying and testing a model of the way people attribute responsibility to presidents for national economic problems. We find that during the 1982 recession, President …
Many-Minded Homer
Homer
Factors Influencing the Vicious Circle Phenomenon
When rats were tested in a vicious circle paradigm, varying the location of shock in the alley from trial to trial had little or no effect. Trials to criterion data contradicted speed data in the second experiment, and this led to the rejection of speed data as a measure of the vicious circle effect. It was shown that speed data can introduce a bias which increases the probability of a significant vicious circle effect. The duration of intertrial…
Effect of Three Types of Feedback on Concept Formation in Chronic Schizophrenics
An attempt was made to measure the differential effects of reward, “wrong,” and white noise, presented singly and in all possible combinations, on the performance of chronic schizophrenics on a concept formation task. Wrong was found to be the most effective, white noise next, and reward the least effective. Feedback presented in pairs proved to be more effective than when presented singly. The results tended to support the conclusions that: (a) …
Classical Literary Criticism: Aristotle, 'On the Art of Poetry'; Horace, 'On the Art of Poetry'; Longinus, 'On the Sublime'. With an Introduction
Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics
In many respects political scientists agree about how best to model political processes. But we disagree about how to translate our theories into structural equations; each of us seems to have our own structural equation model of the same theory. This disagreement is a serious impediment to theory building. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a means of circumventing this problem. We explain the logic of this alternative modeling strategy and examine …
Local Enforcement and Better Forests
Dynamic Modeling for Persistent Event-Count Time Series
cycles in international relations. Scholars use event-count models to analyze a wide variety of political science data. For example, the large sets of data on cooperative and conflictual international events often use event-count models (Huang, Kim, and Wu 1992; Sayrs 1992; Volgy and Imwalle 1995). These data have also been analyzed using time-series methods, particularly when transformed into indices of conflict and cooperation that consider the…
Change and Stability in Superpower Rivalry
We investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry. Participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors, and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system. Analysis of vector autoregression models of U.S. and Soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and U.S. gross national…
A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model
Time series of event counts are common in political science and other social science applications. Presently, there are few satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in such data and accounting for the dynamic processes in event counts regression. We address this issue by building on earlier work for persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weighted moving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journal of Political S…
The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy
Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953-1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving preside…
Long-Memoried Processes, Unit Roots, and Causal Inference in Political Science
Theory: It has been argued that because researchers have not taken into account the longmemoried natures of certain political processes-especially the fact that some political time series appear to contain unit roots-some users of level Vector Autoregressions may have reached erroneous conclusions about the validity of important causal relationships and model specifications. Hypothesis: For the first time, this argument is evaluated. The difficul…
What Goes Around Comes Around: Unit Root Tests and Cointegration
At one time, the lag time for the implementation of methods from economics and other disciplines in political science was quite long, reflecting the newness of political methodology as well as a lack of statistical training. The articles by Ostrom and Smith and by Durr (in this volume) represent a departure from this longstanding lag time associated with political methodology. These articles, as well as others (e.g., Beck 1992), are using the met…
Sophisticated Reaction in the U.S.-Soviet Arms Race: Evidence of Rational Expectations
Because of the pervasive security rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, information about the expected future behavior of the rival state proves useful to domestic political actors competing to influence budgetary allocations. This article examines the hypothesis that, in the aggregate, this process of sophisticated reaction approximates the behavior of two unitary rational actors capable of forming rational expectations of each…
The Political Economy of Corporate Taxation
ion is not necessary. Rather, we make our case on more substantive grounds. 9One reviewer suggested that corporate tax burden rather than tax rate is the most appropriate dependent variable. We disagree, because we would predict that corporate tax burdens would decline over time even when tax rates remain stable. This happens because government expenditures, largely a function of entitlements, have increased over time, and This content downloaded…
Policy Uncertainty in Two-Level Games: Examples of Correlated Equilibria
Recent research on two-level game models emphasizes the close interaction between the domestic and foreign policies of states, but these states are usually interpreted as unitary rational actors and these two policy arenas are generally kept separate. We develop integrated models of multi-level policy games in which the locus of strategic action remains at the individual (or group) level. Social choice theory identifies fundamental dilemmas assoc…
Dynamic Change, Specification Uncertainty, and Bayesian Vector Autoregression Analysis
The analysis of time-series data is fraught with problems of specification uncertainty and dynamic instability. Vector autoregression (VAR) is one attempt to overcome specification problems in time-series analysis, but this methodology has been criticized for being unparsimonious and potentially unstable through time.1This article describes an important extension of VAR, one using Bayesian methods and allowing for time-varying parameters. These e…
The Dimension of Superpower Rivalry: A Dynamic Factor Analysis
The security policies of the United States and the Soviet Union can be interpreted as manifestations of a single “rivalry system.” If each state's security policies are driven by the same underlying factors, then any effort to separate the contributions of internal and external determinants of the arms race is essentially misleading. We use dynamic factor analysis to evaluate whether an unobservable dimension of rivalry explains the dynamics exhi…
Does Privatization Protect Natural Resources? Property Rights and Forests in Guatemala
Objectives . Property rights are central to debates about natural resource policy. Governments traditionally have been seen as the appropriate custodians of natural resources for their citizens. More recently, many argue the privatization of property rights will ensure that users have incentives to manage their resources well. Common property, to the extent it is discussed at all, is seen as leading to the tragedy of the commons. We evaluate thes…
Empirically Discriminating between Chaotic and Stochastic Time Series
In recent years, more and more social scientists have begun to view the world as inherently probabilistic (Suppes 1984; Gigerenzer 1987). Without detailing the philosophical underpinnings of such a view, this subtle movement away from deterministic positivism has been fed, in large part, by a recognition of the indeterminacy of strategic interaction among individuals and the inevitability of uncertainty in social relations (Boudon 1986). Chaos th…
Breaking the war‐economy link
We present evidence that the causal link from world production to war severity (as documented by Goldstein) begins to break down by the time of the Franco‐Prussian War. To explain this finding we develop a simple choice‐theoretic model based on the assumption of a long‐term decline in the (average) net economic benefits of war, as perceived by policymakers. We derive some additional macro‐level implications of this micro‐level model and discuss t…
The television outlook
Effect of Three Types of Feedback on Concept Formation in Chronic Schizophrenics
An attempt was made to measure the differential effects of reward, “wrong,” and white noise, presented singly and in all possible combinations, on the performance of chronic schizophrenics on a concept formation task. Wrong was found to be the most effective, white noise next, and reward the least effective. Feedback presented in pairs proved to be more effective than when presented singly. The results tended to support the conclusions that: (a) …
Classical Literary Criticism: Aristotle, 'On the Art of Poetry'; Horace, 'On the Art of Poetry'; Longinus, 'On the Sublime'. With an Introduction
Plautus, the Pot of Gold and Other Plays (=aulularia, Captivi, Menaechmi, Miles Gloriosus, Pseudolus)
Factors Influencing the Vicious Circle Phenomenon
When rats were tested in a vicious circle paradigm, varying the location of shock in the alley from trial to trial had little or no effect. Trials to criterion data contradicted speed data in the second experiment, and this led to the rejection of speed data as a measure of the vicious circle effect. It was shown that speed data can introduce a bias which increases the probability of a significant vicious circle effect. The duration of intertrial…
Homer
Many-Minded Homer
Attributing Presidential Responsibility for National Economic Problems
Several recent studies of economic voting have challenged a central assumption of the reward-punishment theory of retrospective voting, that voters hold the incumbent party responsible for all manner of economic fluctuations. Our research expands on prior work in several ways by specifying and testing a model of the way people attribute responsibility to presidents for national economic problems. We find that during the 1982 recession, President …
Sophisticated Reaction in the U.S.-Soviet Arms Race: Evidence of Rational Expectations
Because of the pervasive security rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, information about the expected future behavior of the rival state proves useful to domestic political actors competing to influence budgetary allocations. This article examines the hypothesis that, in the aggregate, this process of sophisticated reaction approximates the behavior of two unitary rational actors capable of forming rational expectations of each…
Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics
In many respects political scientists agree about how best to model political processes. But we disagree about how to translate our theories into structural equations; each of us seems to have our own structural equation model of the same theory. This disagreement is a serious impediment to theory building. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a means of circumventing this problem. We explain the logic of this alternative modeling strategy and examine …
Change and Stability in Superpower Rivalry
We investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry. Participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors, and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system. Analysis of vector autoregression models of U.S. and Soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and U.S. gross national…
The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy
Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953-1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving preside…
Dynamic Change, Specification Uncertainty, and Bayesian Vector Autoregression Analysis
The analysis of time-series data is fraught with problems of specification uncertainty and dynamic instability. Vector autoregression (VAR) is one attempt to overcome specification problems in time-series analysis, but this methodology has been criticized for being unparsimonious and potentially unstable through time.1This article describes an important extension of VAR, one using Bayesian methods and allowing for time-varying parameters. These e…
What Goes Around Comes Around: Unit Root Tests and Cointegration
At one time, the lag time for the implementation of methods from economics and other disciplines in political science was quite long, reflecting the newness of political methodology as well as a lack of statistical training. The articles by Ostrom and Smith and by Durr (in this volume) represent a departure from this longstanding lag time associated with political methodology. These articles, as well as others (e.g., Beck 1992), are using the met…
The Dimension of Superpower Rivalry: A Dynamic Factor Analysis
The security policies of the United States and the Soviet Union can be interpreted as manifestations of a single “rivalry system.” If each state's security policies are driven by the same underlying factors, then any effort to separate the contributions of internal and external determinants of the arms race is essentially misleading. We use dynamic factor analysis to evaluate whether an unobservable dimension of rivalry explains the dynamics exhi…
Policy Uncertainty in Two-Level Games: Examples of Correlated Equilibria
Recent research on two-level game models emphasizes the close interaction between the domestic and foreign policies of states, but these states are usually interpreted as unitary rational actors and these two policy arenas are generally kept separate. We develop integrated models of multi-level policy games in which the locus of strategic action remains at the individual (or group) level. Social choice theory identifies fundamental dilemmas assoc…
Breaking the war‐economy link
We present evidence that the causal link from world production to war severity (as documented by Goldstein) begins to break down by the time of the Franco‐Prussian War. To explain this finding we develop a simple choice‐theoretic model based on the assumption of a long‐term decline in the (average) net economic benefits of war, as perceived by policymakers. We derive some additional macro‐level implications of this micro‐level model and discuss t…
Empirically Discriminating between Chaotic and Stochastic Time Series
In recent years, more and more social scientists have begun to view the world as inherently probabilistic (Suppes 1984; Gigerenzer 1987). Without detailing the philosophical underpinnings of such a view, this subtle movement away from deterministic positivism has been fed, in large part, by a recognition of the indeterminacy of strategic interaction among individuals and the inevitability of uncertainty in social relations (Boudon 1986). Chaos th…
The Political Economy of Corporate Taxation
ion is not necessary. Rather, we make our case on more substantive grounds. 9One reviewer suggested that corporate tax burden rather than tax rate is the most appropriate dependent variable. We disagree, because we would predict that corporate tax burdens would decline over time even when tax rates remain stable. This happens because government expenditures, largely a function of entitlements, have increased over time, and This content downloaded…
Long-Memoried Processes, Unit Roots, and Causal Inference in Political Science
Theory: It has been argued that because researchers have not taken into account the longmemoried natures of certain political processes-especially the fact that some political time series appear to contain unit roots-some users of level Vector Autoregressions may have reached erroneous conclusions about the validity of important causal relationships and model specifications. Hypothesis: For the first time, this argument is evaluated. The difficul…
Dynamic Modeling for Persistent Event-Count Time Series
cycles in international relations. Scholars use event-count models to analyze a wide variety of political science data. For example, the large sets of data on cooperative and conflictual international events often use event-count models (Huang, Kim, and Wu 1992; Sayrs 1992; Volgy and Imwalle 1995). These data have also been analyzed using time-series methods, particularly when transformed into indices of conflict and cooperation that consider the…
A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model
Time series of event counts are common in political science and other social science applications. Presently, there are few satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in such data and accounting for the dynamic processes in event counts regression. We address this issue by building on earlier work for persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weighted moving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journal of Political S…
Does Privatization Protect Natural Resources? Property Rights and Forests in Guatemala
Objectives . Property rights are central to debates about natural resource policy. Governments traditionally have been seen as the appropriate custodians of natural resources for their citizens. More recently, many argue the privatization of property rights will ensure that users have incentives to manage their resources well. Common property, to the extent it is discussed at all, is seen as leading to the tragedy of the commons. We evaluate thes…
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
The natural rate of interest—the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation—plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation of the natural rate of interest, however, has received little attention. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate jointly time-varying natural rates of interest and output and trend growth. We find a close link between the natural rate of interest and t…
Local Enforcement and Better Forests
Economics (17 works) · Political science (15 works) · Law (11 works) · Politics (11 works) · Econometrics (10 works) · Law (10 works) · Mathematics (9 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (9 works) · Computer Science (8 works) · Macroeconomics (6 works)