Lawrence Wu
Biographic Data
| ID | 4144083 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lawrence Wu |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lawrence |
| FAMILY NAME | Wu |
| SIGNATURE | WU L |
| AFFILIATIONS | New York University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2301-5136 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 36 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 732 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 36 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1983 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 12 |
The Effect of the Great Recession on U.S. Fertility: Causal Estimates From a Novel Cohort Discontinuity Design
Highlights This article presents causal effects of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Effects are identified using a new cohort discontinuity design. The design identifies effects for single-year cohorts of women, as well as for single-year cohorts of White and Black women. Estimated effects are negative for U.S. women born in the period 1964‒1992. Negative effects are largest for younger cohorts and for Black women
Toward a formal sociological model of partner search
Is US Fertility now Below Replacement? Evidence from Period vs. Cohort Trends
In this study, we contrast period and cohort approaches to answering the question: Is US fertility now below replacement? The answer would appear to be an unambiguous “yes” based on period trends in the total fertility rate (TFR). Since 2007, TFR has declined from 2.12, just above the replacement level set by demographic tradition at 2.10 births per woman, to 1.67 in 2022, leading many to speculate that the United States has now entered a sustain…
Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Healthcare Personnel Who Generally Accept Vaccines
Hazard Versus Linear Probability Difference-in-Differences Estimators for Demographic Processes
This study examines the properties of the linear probability difference-in-differences estimator when the data are in fact generated by a single-decrement, continuous-time hazard process. We focus on the textbook case of two groups and two periods in which the control and treatment groups are observed before and after treatment. We provide formal derivations and illustrate matters concretely by reexamining economic studies that have relied on the…
Sexual Abstinence in the United States: Cohort Trends in Abstaining from Sex While Never Married for U.S. Women Born 1938 to 1983
In this data visualization, the authors document trends in abstaining from sex while never married for U.S. women born 1938–1939 to 1982–1983. Using data from the six most recent National Surveys of Family Growth, the authors’ estimates suggest that for women born in the late 1930s and early 1940s, 48 percent to 58 percent reported abstaining from sex while never married. Abstinence then declined rapidly among women born in the late 1940s through…
Could We Level the Playing Field? Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives, Nonmarital Fertility, and Poverty in the United States
LAWRENCE L. WU, NICHOLAS D. E. MARK, Could We Level the Playing Field? Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives, Nonmarital Fertility, and Poverty in the United States, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 3, Anti-Poverty Policy Initiatives for the United States (FEBRUARY 2018), pp. 144-166
Reexamining trends in premarital sex in the United States
In a heavily cited paper, Finer (2007) asserted that by age 30, 82% of US women born 1939â 1948 engaged in premarital sex, increasing to 94% for those born 1969â 1978. Using the same data, our age 30 estimates are 55% and 87% for women born 1939â 1948 and 196
The Decoupling of Sex and Marriage: Cohort Trends in Who Did and Did Not Delay Sex until Marriage for U.S. Women Born 1938–1985
In this study, we examine cohort trends in who did and did not delay sex until marriage for U.S. women born between 1938 and 1985 using Cycles 3–7 of the National Survey of Family Growth. We find that roughly half of women born in the late 1930s and early 1940s were already sexually active prior to marriage. Especially rapid increases in not delaying sex until marriage occurred for women born between 1942–43 and 1954–55, with subsequent cohorts e…
Alternative Estimates of Lifetime Prevalence Of Abortion from Indirect Survey Questioning Methods
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article
Recent Demographic Trends and the Family
For demographers, perhaps the most stunning set of changes in the family to have emerged over the last century are changes that drove what appeared to have been exploding populations, both in the world at large as well as in individual countries, to changes that now raise the distinct possibility of future population decline in a non‐negligible number of nations. These changes are in turn intimately connected to profound changes in family life an…
Fertility of Single and Cohabiting Women
Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States
Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will…
Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage
We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how prema…
Premarital conceptions, postconception ('shotgun') marriages, and premarital first births: Education gradients in U.S. cohorts of white and black women born 1925-1959
In the U.S. today, premarital first births occur disproportionately to women with low education and income. We lack studies of whether this education gradient was present in cohorts born earlier
Composition and decomposition in nonmarital fertility
Ermisch (2009) criticized Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006), arguing that they incorrectly tested a model positing a nonlinear relationship between the nonmarital fertility ratio and the proportion of unmarried women. I identify a different problem, which is that even if this model were to hold for a particular population, it would not in general hold for subgroups of this population; likewise, were it to hold for subgroups, it would not hold for …
Effects of Exposure on Prevalence and Cumulative Relative Risk: Direct and Indirect Effects in a Recursive Hazard Model
This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let x denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time t governs two event processes T 1 and T 2 . If the occurrence of the event T 1 determines entry into the risk of the event T 2 , then subgroup variation in T 1 will affect the prevalence T 2 , even if subgroups in the population are otherwise…
Stability of Marital and Cohabiting Unions Following a First Birth
No trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any …
Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women
Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonneg…
Questions in Time: Investigating the Structure and Dynamics of Unfolding Classroom Discourse
In the 1st-ever use of event-history analysis to investigate discourse processes quantitatively, this study recasts understanding of discourse in terms of the (a) antecedents and (b) consequences of discourse participant "moves" as they (c) affect the inertia of the discourse and accordingly structure unfolding discourse processes. The method is used to compute the probabilities of the effects of particular discourse moves on subsequent discourse…
Out of Wedlock: Causes and Consequences of Nonmarital Fertility
Race Differences in Family Experience and Early Sexual Initiation: Dynamic Models of Family Structure and Family Change
We examine the effects of family structure on age at first sexual intercourse before marriage for a recent cohort of women. Previous research on the linkage between family structure and sexual initiation has employed relatively crude measures of family structure-typically a snapshot of the respondent's family structure at age 14. We use retrospective parent histories from the 1979-1987 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to construct dynamic me…
Some Comments on “Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology: Review and Prospect”
Apres un rappel methodologique de l'analyse sequentielle, l'A. expose les forces et les faiblesses de cette technique. Il emet un jugement critique sur les avis de Abbott et Tsay a propos de l'application de l'analyse sequentielle aux carrieres professionnelles. En particulier, l'A. met l'accent sur la question de l'asymetrie des relations unissant les differentes sequences composant une carriere professionnelle. Ce probleme souleve la question d…
Effects of Family Instability, Income, and Income Instability on the Risk of a Premarital Birth
In this study I contrast hypotheses about the effects of family structure on premarital birth risks with three income hypotheses: (1) a low income hypothesis--that the risk of a premarital birth is higher for women from disadvantaged economic backgrounds because they possess fewer or less attractive economic opportunities; (2) a permanent income and transitory income hypothesis--that uncertainties generated by unexpected fluctuations in family in…
Family Structure and the Risk of a Premarital Birth
The authors examine three hypotheses regarding the impact of a womans family characteristics between birth and age 19 on her chances of having a premarital birth. construct dynamic measures of family structure using parent-history data from the [U.S.] National Survey of Families and Households. We use these data to examine the relative importance of family events during childhood changes in family structure during childhood and adolescence and du…
Effects of Family Instability, Income, and Income Instability on the Risk of a Premarital Birth
In this study I contrast hypotheses about the effects of family structure on premarital birth risks with three income hypotheses: (1) a low income hypothesis--that the risk of a premarital birth is higher for women from disadvantaged economic backgrounds because they possess fewer or less attractive economic opportunities; (2) a permanent income and transitory income hypothesis--that uncertainties generated by unexpected fluctuations in family in…
Race Differences in Family Experience and Early Sexual Initiation: Dynamic Models of Family Structure and Family Change
We examine the effects of family structure on age at first sexual intercourse before marriage for a recent cohort of women. Previous research on the linkage between family structure and sexual initiation has employed relatively crude measures of family structure-typically a snapshot of the respondent's family structure at age 14. We use retrospective parent histories from the 1979-1987 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to construct dynamic me…
Some Comments on “Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology: Review and Prospect”
Apres un rappel methodologique de l'analyse sequentielle, l'A. expose les forces et les faiblesses de cette technique. Il emet un jugement critique sur les avis de Abbott et Tsay a propos de l'application de l'analyse sequentielle aux carrieres professionnelles. En particulier, l'A. met l'accent sur la question de l'asymetrie des relations unissant les differentes sequences composant une carriere professionnelle. Ce probleme souleve la question d…
Questions in Time: Investigating the Structure and Dynamics of Unfolding Classroom Discourse
In the 1st-ever use of event-history analysis to investigate discourse processes quantitatively, this study recasts understanding of discourse in terms of the (a) antecedents and (b) consequences of discourse participant "moves" as they (c) affect the inertia of the discourse and accordingly structure unfolding discourse processes. The method is used to compute the probabilities of the effects of particular discourse moves on subsequent discourse…
Race and Unemployment: Labor Market Experiences of Black and White Men, 1968-1988
This article addresses two questions: First, why is Black unemployment persistently higher than White unemployment? Second, how can this fact be reconciled with narrowing Black/White differentials in educational attainment, occupational position, and earnings? We show that the persistent racial gap in unemployment is due to differential access to employment opportunities by region, occupational placement, labor market segmentation by race, and la…
Stability of Marital and Cohabiting Unions Following a First Birth
Parent Histories: Patterns of Change in Early Life
Most studies that examine the effects of family structure have employed relatively crude measures, typically a snapshot of family intactness at age 14. In this article, we use data from the National Survey of Families and Households to examine (a) how one might better construct measures of family structure that reflect change during early life and (b) what analytical and empirical opportunities are available when the data provide a more complete …
Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women
Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonneg…
Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage
We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how prema…
Premarital conceptions, postconception ('shotgun') marriages, and premarital first births: Education gradients in U.S. cohorts of white and black women born 1925-1959
In the U.S. today, premarital first births occur disproportionately to women with low education and income. We lack studies of whether this education gradient was present in cohorts born earlier
No trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any …
The Decoupling of Sex and Marriage: Cohort Trends in Who Did and Did Not Delay Sex until Marriage for U.S. Women Born 1938–1985
In this study, we examine cohort trends in who did and did not delay sex until marriage for U.S. women born between 1938 and 1985 using Cycles 3–7 of the National Survey of Family Growth. We find that roughly half of women born in the late 1930s and early 1940s were already sexually active prior to marriage. Especially rapid increases in not delaying sex until marriage occurred for women born between 1942–43 and 1954–55, with subsequent cohorts e…
Alternative Estimates of Lifetime Prevalence Of Abortion from Indirect Survey Questioning Methods
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article
Assessing Bias and Fit of Global and Local Hazard Models
This article assesses the bias and fit of a hazard rate model by comparing predicted and nonparametric estimates of survivor probabilities. These comparisons also generate several diagnostic displays for event history data. We illustrate these diagnostic methods for several global and local hazard models using data on age at first marriage for women from the June 1980 Current Population Survey. Our results suggest that a nonproportional local Gom…
Effects of Exposure on Prevalence and Cumulative Relative Risk: Direct and Indirect Effects in a Recursive Hazard Model
This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let x denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time t governs two event processes T 1 and T 2 . If the occurrence of the event T 1 determines entry into the risk of the event T 2 , then subgroup variation in T 1 will affect the prevalence T 2 , even if subgroups in the population are otherwise…
Could We Level the Playing Field? Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives, Nonmarital Fertility, and Poverty in the United States
LAWRENCE L. WU, NICHOLAS D. E. MARK, Could We Level the Playing Field? Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives, Nonmarital Fertility, and Poverty in the United States, RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 3, Anti-Poverty Policy Initiatives for the United States (FEBRUARY 2018), pp. 144-166
Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States
Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will…
Is US Fertility now Below Replacement? Evidence from Period vs. Cohort Trends
In this study, we contrast period and cohort approaches to answering the question: Is US fertility now below replacement? The answer would appear to be an unambiguous “yes” based on period trends in the total fertility rate (TFR). Since 2007, TFR has declined from 2.12, just above the replacement level set by demographic tradition at 2.10 births per woman, to 1.67 in 2022, leading many to speculate that the United States has now entered a sustain…
Reexamining trends in premarital sex in the United States
In a heavily cited paper, Finer (2007) asserted that by age 30, 82% of US women born 1939â 1948 engaged in premarital sex, increasing to 94% for those born 1969â 1978. Using the same data, our age 30 estimates are 55% and 87% for women born 1939â 1948 and 196
Hazard Versus Linear Probability Difference-in-Differences Estimators for Demographic Processes
This study examines the properties of the linear probability difference-in-differences estimator when the data are in fact generated by a single-decrement, continuous-time hazard process. We focus on the textbook case of two groups and two periods in which the control and treatment groups are observed before and after treatment. We provide formal derivations and illustrate matters concretely by reexamining economic studies that have relied on the…
Sexual Abstinence in the United States: Cohort Trends in Abstaining from Sex While Never Married for U.S. Women Born 1938 to 1983
In this data visualization, the authors document trends in abstaining from sex while never married for U.S. women born 1938–1939 to 1982–1983. Using data from the six most recent National Surveys of Family Growth, the authors’ estimates suggest that for women born in the late 1930s and early 1940s, 48 percent to 58 percent reported abstaining from sex while never married. Abstinence then declined rapidly among women born in the late 1940s through…
Composition and decomposition in nonmarital fertility
Ermisch (2009) criticized Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006), arguing that they incorrectly tested a model positing a nonlinear relationship between the nonmarital fertility ratio and the proportion of unmarried women. I identify a different problem, which is that even if this model were to hold for a particular population, it would not in general hold for subgroups of this population; likewise, were it to hold for subgroups, it would not hold for …
Local Hazard Models
We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential…
Issues in Smoothing Empirical Hazard Rates
This chapter presents a smooth estimator of the hazard rate using a variable-span running loglinear specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in exploratory data analyses (EDA) and in checking parametric assumptions. Examples drawn from data on the transition to first marriage for women in the U.…
Local Blockmodel Algebras for Analyzing Social Networks
Roles and ways of thinking about roles have been a major concern of sociologists. One common approach to roles conceptualizes and analyzes them within networks of multiple social relations (see, for example, Radcliffe-Brown, 1940; Barnes, 1954; Nadel, 1957; Mayer, 1966; Kapferer, 1969; Mitchell, 1969; Bott, 1971; Boissevain, 1973; Laumann and Pappi, 1976). A recurrent theme throughout this literature is that the fundamental variables of interest …
Robust M-Estimation of Location and Regression
Understanding Toscanini: How He Became an American Culture-God and Helped Create a New Audience for Old Music
Issues in Smoothing Empirical Hazard Rates
This chapter presents a smooth estimator of the hazard rate using a variable-span running loglinear specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in exploratory data analyses (EDA) and in checking parametric assumptions. Examples drawn from data on the transition to first marriage for women in the U.…
Local Hazard Models
We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential…
Assessing Bias and Fit of Global and Local Hazard Models
This article assesses the bias and fit of a hazard rate model by comparing predicted and nonparametric estimates of survivor probabilities. These comparisons also generate several diagnostic displays for event history data. We illustrate these diagnostic methods for several global and local hazard models using data on age at first marriage for women from the June 1980 Current Population Survey. Our results suggest that a nonproportional local Gom…
Parent Histories: Patterns of Change in Early Life
Most studies that examine the effects of family structure have employed relatively crude measures, typically a snapshot of family intactness at age 14. In this article, we use data from the National Survey of Families and Households to examine (a) how one might better construct measures of family structure that reflect change during early life and (b) what analytical and empirical opportunities are available when the data provide a more complete …
Segmentation in Local Hospital Markets
This study examines evidence of market segmentation on the basis of patients' insurance status, demographic characteristics, and medical condition in selected local markets in California in the years 1983 and 1989. Substantial differences exist in the probability patients may be admitted to particular hospitals based on insurance coverage, particularly Medicaid, and race. Segmentation based on insurance and race is related to hospital characteris…
Family Structure and the Risk of a Premarital Birth
The authors examine three hypotheses regarding the impact of a womans family characteristics between birth and age 19 on her chances of having a premarital birth. construct dynamic measures of family structure using parent-history data from the [U.S.] National Survey of Families and Households. We use these data to examine the relative importance of family events during childhood changes in family structure during childhood and adolescence and du…
Event History Analysis in Demography
This book provides a review of the techniques of event history analysis in demography. During the 1970s, the amount of reliable data made available as a result of surveys increased enormously. At the same time, statistical and computational techniques developed to allow the new data to be handled. This first expositive treatment of the subject gives a detailed presentation of the techniques of event history analysis. It provides not only a thorou…
Race and Unemployment: Labor Market Experiences of Black and White Men, 1968-1988
This article addresses two questions: First, why is Black unemployment persistently higher than White unemployment? Second, how can this fact be reconciled with narrowing Black/White differentials in educational attainment, occupational position, and earnings? We show that the persistent racial gap in unemployment is due to differential access to employment opportunities by region, occupational placement, labor market segmentation by race, and la…
Effects of Family Instability, Income, and Income Instability on the Risk of a Premarital Birth
In this study I contrast hypotheses about the effects of family structure on premarital birth risks with three income hypotheses: (1) a low income hypothesis--that the risk of a premarital birth is higher for women from disadvantaged economic backgrounds because they possess fewer or less attractive economic opportunities; (2) a permanent income and transitory income hypothesis--that uncertainties generated by unexpected fluctuations in family in…
Some Comments on “Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology: Review and Prospect”
Apres un rappel methodologique de l'analyse sequentielle, l'A. expose les forces et les faiblesses de cette technique. Il emet un jugement critique sur les avis de Abbott et Tsay a propos de l'application de l'analyse sequentielle aux carrieres professionnelles. En particulier, l'A. met l'accent sur la question de l'asymetrie des relations unissant les differentes sequences composant une carriere professionnelle. Ce probleme souleve la question d…
Race Differences in Family Experience and Early Sexual Initiation: Dynamic Models of Family Structure and Family Change
We examine the effects of family structure on age at first sexual intercourse before marriage for a recent cohort of women. Previous research on the linkage between family structure and sexual initiation has employed relatively crude measures of family structure-typically a snapshot of the respondent's family structure at age 14. We use retrospective parent histories from the 1979-1987 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to construct dynamic me…
Questions in Time: Investigating the Structure and Dynamics of Unfolding Classroom Discourse
In the 1st-ever use of event-history analysis to investigate discourse processes quantitatively, this study recasts understanding of discourse in terms of the (a) antecedents and (b) consequences of discourse participant "moves" as they (c) affect the inertia of the discourse and accordingly structure unfolding discourse processes. The method is used to compute the probabilities of the effects of particular discourse moves on subsequent discourse…
Out of Wedlock: Causes and Consequences of Nonmarital Fertility
Stability of Marital and Cohabiting Unions Following a First Birth
No trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any …
Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women
Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonneg…
Composition and decomposition in nonmarital fertility
Ermisch (2009) criticized Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006), arguing that they incorrectly tested a model positing a nonlinear relationship between the nonmarital fertility ratio and the proportion of unmarried women. I identify a different problem, which is that even if this model were to hold for a particular population, it would not in general hold for subgroups of this population; likewise, were it to hold for subgroups, it would not hold for …
Effects of Exposure on Prevalence and Cumulative Relative Risk: Direct and Indirect Effects in a Recursive Hazard Model
This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let x denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time t governs two event processes T 1 and T 2 . If the occurrence of the event T 1 determines entry into the risk of the event T 2 , then subgroup variation in T 1 will affect the prevalence T 2 , even if subgroups in the population are otherwise…
Premarital conceptions, postconception ('shotgun') marriages, and premarital first births: Education gradients in U.S. cohorts of white and black women born 1925-1959
In the U.S. today, premarital first births occur disproportionately to women with low education and income. We lack studies of whether this education gradient was present in cohorts born earlier
Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage
We examine cohort trends in premarital first births for U.S. women born between 1920 and 1964. The rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. However, cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how prema…
Recent Demographic Trends and the Family
For demographers, perhaps the most stunning set of changes in the family to have emerged over the last century are changes that drove what appeared to have been exploding populations, both in the world at large as well as in individual countries, to changes that now raise the distinct possibility of future population decline in a non‐negligible number of nations. These changes are in turn intimately connected to profound changes in family life an…
Fertility of Single and Cohabiting Women
Sociology (23 works) · Demography (21 works) · Family Dynamics and Relationships (19 works) · Population (18 works) · Demography (13 works) · Economics (12 works) · Medicine (12 works) · Psychology (11 works) · Fertility (10 works) · Demographic economics (8 works)