The Effect of the Great Recession on U.S. Fertility
Causal Estimates From a Novel Cohort Discontinuity Design
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19230744 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lawrence Wu (0000-0003-2301-5136, New York University), Nicholas D E Mark (0000-0002-7923-1826, University of Wisconsin–Madison), Jennifer Hill (0000-0002-0682-783X, New York University) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 813-841 |
| Publication date | 2026-06-11 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1215/00703370-12664250 |
| PMID | 42273970 |
| OpenAlex | W7164388642 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 49 |
Highlights This article presents causal effects of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Effects are identified using a new cohort discontinuity design. The design identifies effects for single-year cohorts of women, as well as for single-year cohorts of White and Black women. Estimated effects are negative for U.S. women born in the period 1964‒1992. Negative effects are largest for younger cohorts and for Black women
Cohort · Cohort effect · Cohort study · Great recession · Recession · Regression discontinuity design · Economic Growth and Productivity · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |