New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World
Rises, Falls, and Reversals
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4122599 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mikko Myrskylä (0000-0003-4995-027X, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), J R Goldstein (0000-0002-5936-5464, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Y H A Cheng (0000-0001-6222-3603, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica), Yen‐hsin Alice Cheng |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 31-56 |
| Publication date | 2013-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x |
| OpenAlex | W1975597326 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 86 |
| References cited | 39 |
With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many "low-fertility" countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long-term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English-speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low-fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession
Birth rate · Cohort · Demographic economics · Developed country · Economics · Family planning · Fertility · Macroeconomics · Population · Recession · Research methodology · Sociology · Sub-replacement fertility · Total fertility rate · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Medicine
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Fertility and Family Policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990
The Fertility Transition Revisited
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Fertility Theory
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A review of research of the relationship between gender equity and fertility in low-fertility settings
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Leisure
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The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries
The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan
Outsourcing of Housework and the Transition to a Second Birth in Germany
The East-West Gradient in Spatial Population Development Within Germany
The association between height and birth order
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Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States
Parental Well-being Surrounding First Birth as a Determinant of Further Parity Progression
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The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data
Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000
Happiness
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Family Policies and the Western European Fertility Divide
Reproductive Responses to Economic Uncertainty
Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe
Gender Equality and Armed Conflict
Vorausberechnung des Pflegepotentials von erwachsenen Kindern für ihre pflegebedürftigen Eltern
The Theoretical Potential for Selection on Determinants of Fertility to Cause Aggregate Fertility Increases in Human Populations
Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability
All-time low period fertility in Finland
Re-theorizing Family Demographics
When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world
The Death of the West
An investigation of the unexpectedly high fertility of secular, native-born Jews in Israel
Trust and fertility in uncertain times
A cost of living longer
Demographic Trends in Ukraine
The Aftermath of the Demographic Transition in the Developed World
Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity
Housework, Gender Role Attitudes, and Couples' Fertility Intentions
Intentions Into Actions
Cash transfers and fertility
Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940-1969 birth cohorts
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Visualizing fertility trends for 45 countries using composite lattice plots
Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania
Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries
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Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s
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Fathers' Changing Contributions to Child Care and Domestic Work in Very Low-Fertility Countries
Labor market influences on Women's fertility decisions
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Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations
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Recent Demographic Developments in France
Has the fertility decline come to an end in the different regions of Italy
Recent Demographic Developments in France
Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960
Happiness
The Empty Cradle
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Recent European fertility patterns
Overview Chapter 1
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
American Fertility Patterns
Forecasting cohort incomplete fertility
Observations on the History of Cohort Fertility in the United States
China's Below-Replacement Fertility
The Contribution of Assisted Reproduction to Completed Fertility
Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries
East Asian Childbearing Patterns and Policy Developments
Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition
Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries
Modeling fertility in modern populations
A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters
Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures
Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility
Cohort Reproductive Patterns in the Nordic Countries
On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures
| Unique citing works | 86 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,62 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2026 (14) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 72 |