China's Below-Replacement Fertility
Recent Trends and Future Prospects
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4122091 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Philip Morgan, S Philip Morgan (0009-0003-2269-5368, Duke University), Guo Zhigang, Zhigang Guo (0000-0002-1138-3719, Peking University), Sarah R Hayford (0000-0003-0000-7774, Arizona State University) |
| Year | 2009 |
| Volume | 35 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 605-629 |
| Publication date | 2009-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00298.x |
| PMID | 20376285 |
| PMCID | PMC2849170 |
| OpenAlex | W1993223650 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 73 |
| References cited | 45 |
Between 1970 and 1990, China experiencoed a rapid and sharp fertility decline-from total fertility rates of approximately six births to two. The degree to which Chinese fertility has continued to fall after 1990 is controversial. We use survey data from the 1997 National Population and Reproductive Health Survey and from the 2001 Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey to document recent trends in Chinese fertility. Our estimates provide further evidence that China's fertility is well below-replacement level at the turn of the twenty-first century-with TFR levels of approximately 1.5 children per woman. Trends in parity-specific cohort fertility by age also suggest below replacement completed fertility for cohorts still in the childbearing years. In the article's second section, we identify key components of low period fertility in order to frame our discussion of two questions: 1) in what ways is Chinese low fertility different from/similar to that in other low-fertility countries? And 2) what are the likely future trends in Chinese fertility
Birth rate · China · Family planning · Fertility · Geography · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Sub-replacement fertility · Total fertility rate · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Global Maternal and Child Health
Far Below Replacement Fertility in Urban China
The Risk of Mothers Losing an Only Child in China
Unpacking the Differential Impact of Family Planning Policies in China
The decline in China’s fertility level
Post-Transitional Fertility
China’s Demographic History and Future Challenges
Prediction models and associated factors on the fertility behaviors of the floating population in China
Reexamining the effect of birth order on cognitive and non-cognitive abilities
The More, the Healthier? Effects of Sibling Size on Adolescent Depression in Rural China
Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989
Parental gender preferences and fertility ideals in China
Different places, different stories
Modelling the proximate determinants of fertility for Brazil
Can Pets Replace Children? The Interaction Effect of Pet Attachment and Subjective Socioeconomic Status on Fertility Intention
Son Preference and the Reproductive Behavior of Rural-Urban Migrant Women of Childbearing Age in China
Exploring the relationship between changes in fertility and disasters
Vieillissement démographique en Chine
Do parents matter? Intergenerational ties and fertility preferences in a low-fertility context
Towards Quantifying Population Ageing
Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption
From Fertility Intention to Fertility Behaviour
Women’s gender role attitudes and fertility intentions of having a second child
Pathways to Low Fertility in India
Transition in second birth intention in a low fertility context
Marriage Squeeze in China's Future
China's Population Trends and Their Implications for Fertility Policy
Below Replacement Fertility Preferences in Shanghai
China’s Population Policy at the Crossroads
Parental “love” on time
Freedom and Cradle
Fertility intentions of having a second child among the floating population in China
Low fertility spread in China
A life course perspective
Low fertility and concurrent birth control policy in China
No Spouse, No Son, No Daughter, No Kin in Contemporary China
China's Demographic Challenge Requires an Integrated Coping Strategy
The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China
Only Children and Low Family Size Ideals
Marriage Squeeze, Never-Married Proportion, and Mean Age at First Marriage in China
Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China
The Determinants of Low Fertility in India
Sibling Availability, Sibling Sorting, and Subjective Health Among Chinese Adults
Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China
Parental Investment After the Birth of a Sibling
Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy
Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries
The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions
Tempo and the TFR
Sibling Ideological Influence
China’s Missing Girls in the Three Decades from 1980 to 2010
Tracking of factors affecting Chinese women’s fertility intentions from childhood to adulthood
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
A Holistic Approach to Family Life Course Change across 1930-1978 Chinese Birth Cohorts
Second Child Decisions in China
How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China
China's Below-Replacement Fertility
China's New Demographic Reality
High Confucian Familism Adherence but Low Fertility Intentions
New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World
Population, Policy, and Politics
East Asian Childbearing Patterns and Policy Developments
The Future of a Demographic Overachiever
Comparison of second-child fertility intentions between local and migrant women in urban China
Les préférences de fécondité à Shanghai dans un contexte de basse fécondité
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
Prenatal Sex-Selective Abortion and High Sex Ratio at Birth in the Rural Henan Province
Parental Status and Subjective Well-Being Among Currently Married Individuals in China
Global Interactions and Family Formation Pathways in Reform-Era Urban China
Education and fertility decline in China during transitional times
The Intergenerational Effect and Second Childbirth
China's Marriage Squeeze
Fertility Intention, Son Preference, and Second Childbirth
The Impact of Migration on Fertility under China's Underlying Restrictions
Demographic patterns in developed societies
Social change and the family in Taiwan
The Population of Modern China
Population-Based Study of Chlamydial Infection in China
Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society
Below-Replacement Fertility and Childbearing Intention in Jiangsu Province, China
Low fertility and limited diffusion of modern contraception in Italy during the second half of the twentieth century
China
Work Patterns Following a Birth in Urban and Rural China
The Changing Institutional Context of Low Fertility
Missing the Target? Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S
The emergence of Sub-Replacement Family Size Ideals in Europe
Understanding World Models
An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable- r method
Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis
Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of ryder’s basic translation equation
Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies
Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder's Basic Translation Equation
Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences
Tempo and the TFR
Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing
Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Fertility and Distorted Sex Ratios in a Rural Chinese County
How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined
Emerging Parental Gender Indifference? Sex Composition of Children and the Third Birth
Delayed Marriage and Very Low Fertility in Pacific Asia
Is Fertility in China in 1991-92 Far Below Replacement Level
Below Replacement Fertility in China? A Close Look at Recent Evidence
Progression to Second Birth in China
Maternal Work and Child Care in China
Fertility As Mobility
Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970-2002
China's Local and National Fertility Policies at the End of the Twentieth Century
China
Prenatal Sex Determination and Sex-Selective Abortion in Rural Central China
Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China
The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World
Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle
Religiosity and Fertility in the United States
| Unique citing works | 73 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,29 |
| Citation span | 2009 - 2026 (18) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 69 |