John Bartle
Biographic Data
| ID | 704276 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John Bartle |
| GIVEN NAMES | John |
| FAMILY NAME | Bartle |
| SIGNATURE | BARTLE J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Essex |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5964-0243 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 32 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 292 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 31 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1996 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
When Do Shadow Ministers Become ‘Realities’? Evidence from the UK, 1964–2024
A characteristic feature of Westminster-style democracy is the convention that the opposition frontbench forms the basis of the new executive following changes in the party of government. Yet we know little about how this convention operates when it comes to individual appointments. This paper examines how frequently opposition frontbenchers have become ministers in the UK, the archetypal Westminster system. Across seven incoming governments, we …
The Red–Green Electoral Threat to the Labour Party
For the first time, Labour faces credible electoral threats from minor parties to its left. The Greens and the newly formed Your Party offer left‐wing and Muslim voters disillusioned with Labour viable electoral alternatives and parliamentary representation. This article considers how great the threat is to Labour. It uses a model of how minor parties emerge under the first‐past‐the‐post electoral system to show that Labour faces challenges in so…
Surge‐and‐Collapse’ under First Past the Post: Reform UK 's Electoral Threat to the Conservative Party
Could the Conservative Party lose its status as one of the two major parties in the British party system and be supplanted by Reform UK? Such collapses are rare under the first‐past‐the‐post electoral system, but not unknown. We consider Alan Ware's argument that major‐party collapses follow a catastrophic election defeat after a party finds itself fighting on two separate fronts. This applies to the Conservatives, who lost votes to small parties…
An unpredictable pendulum: UK electoral dynamics in the twenty-first century
Post-war electoral dynamics were framed by a two-party system that usually provided single party governments with a legislative majority. These conditions promoted a pendulum-like swing of votes between two parties that alternated in office. The electorate responded ‘thermostatically’ to governments by moving in the opposite direction to policy and imposed the ‘costs of ruling.’ The major parties competed by moderating their positions and buildin…
Why Was There a Hard Brexit? The British Legislative Party System, Divided Majorities and the Incentives for Factionalism
The UK parliament of 2017–2019 had to decide what form of Brexit, if any, it would accept in the government’s negotiations with the EU over a withdrawal agreement. Despite a large majority of MPs having supported Remain in the 2016 referendum, with most opposed to a ‘hard’ Brexit of looser ties between the UK and the EU, all attempts to pass a ‘soft’ Brexit failed. The final withdrawal agreement reflected a hard Brexit that was closer to the pref…
Breaking the Deadlock: Britain at the Polls 2019
The policy mood in Spain: The Thermostat in a Warm Climate, 1978–2017
Representative democracies are supposed to be uniquely virtuous in that they ensure that public preferences drive public policy. Dynamic representation is the outcome of a recurring interaction between electorate and parties that can be observed at the macro level. Preferences can shape government policy via two possible mechanisms. ‘Policy accomodation’ suggests that governments respond directly to the electorate’s preferences. ‘Electoral turnov…
Policy accommodation versus electoral turnover: Policy representation in Britain, 1945–2015
Does public policy in the United Kingdom respond to changes in public preferences? If so, is this the result of the government changing its policy to reflect preferences (“policy accommodation”) or the result of governments that pursue unpopular policies being replaced at elections by governments more in line with the public (“electoral turnover”)? We explore these questions by estimating annual aggregate public preferences (“the policy mood”) us…
Parallel lines? Policy mood in a plurinational democracy
Finding a niche? Challenger parties and issue emphasis in the 2015 televised leaders’ debates
Do leaders of ‘challenger’ parties adopt a ‘niche’ strategy in national televised debates? This article answers this question by analysing the content of the two multiparty televised leaders’ debates that took place ahead of the 2015 British general election. Using computer-aided text analysis (CATA), it provides reliable and valid measures of what the leaders said in both debates and develops our theoretical understanding of how challenger-party…
The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest t…
Rules, Strategies and Words: The Content of the 2010 Prime Ministerial Debates
This article investigates the verbal content of the 2010 prime ministerial debates using computer-aided text analysis (CATA) and functional analysis. It seeks to provide reliable measures of what the leaders said, develop our theoretical understanding of televised debates in British elections, open up the 2010 debates for potential comparison with others, and provide additional evidence by which the democratic value of the debates might be assess…
Telling more than they can know? Does the most important issue really reveal what is most important to voters
The Moving Centre: Preferences for Government Activity in Britain, 1950–2005
The political ‘centre’ is often discussed in debates about public policy and analyses of party strategies and election outcomes. Yet, to date, there has been little effort to estimate the political centre outside the United States. This article outlines a method of estimating the political centre using public opinion data collected for the period between 1950 and 2005. It is demonstrated that it is possible to measure the centre in Britain, that …
Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters
Most models assume that voting behaviour can be summarised by a single additive equation. There are good reasons, however, for believing that some voters place more weight on some considerations than others or use different decision rules. In both cases, a single additive equation will produce misleading accounts of the causal processes. Modellers should therefore allow for such differences. In order to illustrate these propositions, I examine ev…
Election studies: What's Their Use
Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel (eds) Boulder: Westview Press, 2001. 285 pp.; £30.50, pbk, ISBN 0 8133 6635 6
Partisanship, Performance and Personality: Competing and Complementary Characterizations of the 2001 British General Election
The study of voting behaviour is characterized by controversy about the `importance' of various explanatory themes and specific variables, but there is a widespread reluctance to assess these hypotheses in a comprehensive causal model. This article specifies a model of Labour and Conservative voting in the 2001 British General Election which incorporates a whole series of competing and complementary hypotheses. The results suggest that partisansh…
Measuring party identification: An Exploratory Study With Focus Groups
The general election in Britain, June 2001
Political Communications Transformed: From Morrison to Mandelson
Dramatic changes in society, technology and culture have transformed the relationship between political parties, the media, and the individual voter over the last fifty years. The leading researchers
The measurement of party identification in Britain: Where do we stand now
Labour and liberal democrat relations after 7 June 2001
Political Awareness, Opinion Constraint and the Stability of Ideological Positions
Some studies of public opinion suggest that most people are ignorant about the detail of politics and are simply unable to arrive at a considered vote. They hold that voters are ignorant about the ideological substance of politics, since their opinions do not appear to be constrained by ideas and are unstable over time. However, other studies cast doubt on both the definition of ideology employed in these studies and their operational measures. I…
Improving the measurement of party identification in Britain
This article points out a paradox: most political scientists apparently subscribe to a party identification model of voting behaviour and yet there is widespread concem about how that concept is currently measured. In particular there are doubts about whether the traditional measure captures the long-tenn nature of party identification. The article presents evidence from an experiment, carried out by the Gallup Organization, which compares the tr…
A Concise English-Russian Phrase Book
The Moving Centre: Preferences for Government Activity in Britain, 1950–2005
The political ‘centre’ is often discussed in debates about public policy and analyses of party strategies and election outcomes. Yet, to date, there has been little effort to estimate the political centre outside the United States. This article outlines a method of estimating the political centre using public opinion data collected for the period between 1950 and 2005. It is demonstrated that it is possible to measure the centre in Britain, that …
Political Awareness, Opinion Constraint and the Stability of Ideological Positions
Some studies of public opinion suggest that most people are ignorant about the detail of politics and are simply unable to arrive at a considered vote. They hold that voters are ignorant about the ideological substance of politics, since their opinions do not appear to be constrained by ideas and are unstable over time. However, other studies cast doubt on both the definition of ideology employed in these studies and their operational measures. I…
Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters
Most models assume that voting behaviour can be summarised by a single additive equation. There are good reasons, however, for believing that some voters place more weight on some considerations than others or use different decision rules. In both cases, a single additive equation will produce misleading accounts of the causal processes. Modellers should therefore allow for such differences. In order to illustrate these propositions, I examine ev…
Telling more than they can know? Does the most important issue really reveal what is most important to voters
Left-Right Position Matters, But Does Social Class? Causal Models of the 1992 British General Election
Social class has long been assumed to be the predominant social or structural determinant of voting behaviour. This article assesses the effect of class on voting behaviour at the 1992 general election by adopting the causal modelling perspective developed by Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks. It explores two mechanisms (party identification and left–right ideological positions) which may mediate the effect of class on voting behaviour. Howe…
The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest t…
Policy accommodation versus electoral turnover: Policy representation in Britain, 1945–2015
Does public policy in the United Kingdom respond to changes in public preferences? If so, is this the result of the government changing its policy to reflect preferences (“policy accommodation”) or the result of governments that pursue unpopular policies being replaced at elections by governments more in line with the public (“electoral turnover”)? We explore these questions by estimating annual aggregate public preferences (“the policy mood”) us…
Parallel lines? Policy mood in a plurinational democracy
Partisanship, Performance and Personality: Competing and Complementary Characterizations of the 2001 British General Election
The study of voting behaviour is characterized by controversy about the `importance' of various explanatory themes and specific variables, but there is a widespread reluctance to assess these hypotheses in a comprehensive causal model. This article specifies a model of Labour and Conservative voting in the 2001 British General Election which incorporates a whole series of competing and complementary hypotheses. The results suggest that partisansh…
Why Was There a Hard Brexit? The British Legislative Party System, Divided Majorities and the Incentives for Factionalism
The UK parliament of 2017–2019 had to decide what form of Brexit, if any, it would accept in the government’s negotiations with the EU over a withdrawal agreement. Despite a large majority of MPs having supported Remain in the 2016 referendum, with most opposed to a ‘hard’ Brexit of looser ties between the UK and the EU, all attempts to pass a ‘soft’ Brexit failed. The final withdrawal agreement reflected a hard Brexit that was closer to the pref…
Measuring party identification: An Exploratory Study With Focus Groups
The policy mood in Spain: The Thermostat in a Warm Climate, 1978–2017
Representative democracies are supposed to be uniquely virtuous in that they ensure that public preferences drive public policy. Dynamic representation is the outcome of a recurring interaction between electorate and parties that can be observed at the macro level. Preferences can shape government policy via two possible mechanisms. ‘Policy accomodation’ suggests that governments respond directly to the electorate’s preferences. ‘Electoral turnov…
Rules, Strategies and Words: The Content of the 2010 Prime Ministerial Debates
This article investigates the verbal content of the 2010 prime ministerial debates using computer-aided text analysis (CATA) and functional analysis. It seeks to provide reliable measures of what the leaders said, develop our theoretical understanding of televised debates in British elections, open up the 2010 debates for potential comparison with others, and provide additional evidence by which the democratic value of the debates might be assess…
Political awareness and heterogeneity in models of voting: Some evidence from the British election studies
(1997). Political awareness and heterogeneity in models of voting: Some evidence from the British election studies. British Elections & Parties Review: Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1-22
The measurement of party identification in Britain: Where do we stand now
An unpredictable pendulum: UK electoral dynamics in the twenty-first century
Post-war electoral dynamics were framed by a two-party system that usually provided single party governments with a legislative majority. These conditions promoted a pendulum-like swing of votes between two parties that alternated in office. The electorate responded ‘thermostatically’ to governments by moving in the opposite direction to policy and imposed the ‘costs of ruling.’ The major parties competed by moderating their positions and buildin…
Improving the measurement of party identification in Britain
This article points out a paradox: most political scientists apparently subscribe to a party identification model of voting behaviour and yet there is widespread concem about how that concept is currently measured. In particular there are doubts about whether the traditional measure captures the long-tenn nature of party identification. The article presents evidence from an experiment, carried out by the Gallup Organization, which compares the tr…
Finding a niche? Challenger parties and issue emphasis in the 2015 televised leaders’ debates
Do leaders of ‘challenger’ parties adopt a ‘niche’ strategy in national televised debates? This article answers this question by analysing the content of the two multiparty televised leaders’ debates that took place ahead of the 2015 British general election. Using computer-aided text analysis (CATA), it provides reliable and valid measures of what the leaders said in both debates and develops our theoretical understanding of how challenger-party…
The general election in Britain, June 2001
Labour and liberal democrat relations after 7 June 2001
Flights into the Past and Present: A Beginning and Intermediate Russian Reader (Polety v proshloe i nastoiashchee)
Political awareness and heterogeneity in models of voting: Some evidence from the British election studies
(1997). Political awareness and heterogeneity in models of voting: Some evidence from the British election studies. British Elections & Parties Review: Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1-22
Dostoevsky: The Miraculous Years, 1865-1871
Russian Motion Verbs for Intermediate Students
Devoted entirely to Russian motion verbs, this work integrates text and workbook exercises, aiming to prepare intermediate students (second and third year undergraduates) to use comfortably the everyday Russian heard in conversation on the street and in the home
Conceptualizing the Space of a Journal’s Pages: Dostoevsky as Editor of Time
Bell and Howell Information and Learning: Foreign text omitted (...) At the beginning of the epilogue to The Insulted and the Injured, Ivan Petrovich, the narrator and Dostoevsky's autobiographical double, meets with his editor, Aleksandr Petrovich, to collect his literary fee. Ivan Petrovich has just submitted the final installment of his novel (which we understand is the work we have just read), and the jovial publisher uses the occasion to exp…
Left-Right Position Matters, But Does Social Class? Causal Models of the 1992 British General Election
Social class has long been assumed to be the predominant social or structural determinant of voting behaviour. This article assesses the effect of class on voting behaviour at the 1992 general election by adopting the causal modelling perspective developed by Warren E. Miller and J. Merrill Shanks. It explores two mechanisms (party identification and left–right ideological positions) which may mediate the effect of class on voting behaviour. Howe…
Improving the measurement of party identification in Britain
This article points out a paradox: most political scientists apparently subscribe to a party identification model of voting behaviour and yet there is widespread concem about how that concept is currently measured. In particular there are doubts about whether the traditional measure captures the long-tenn nature of party identification. The article presents evidence from an experiment, carried out by the Gallup Organization, which compares the tr…
A Concise English-Russian Phrase Book
The British General Election of 1997 . David Butler , Dennis Kavanagh
Political Awareness, Opinion Constraint and the Stability of Ideological Positions
Some studies of public opinion suggest that most people are ignorant about the detail of politics and are simply unable to arrive at a considered vote. They hold that voters are ignorant about the ideological substance of politics, since their opinions do not appear to be constrained by ideas and are unstable over time. However, other studies cast doubt on both the definition of ideology employed in these studies and their operational measures. I…
Political Communications Transformed: From Morrison to Mandelson
Dramatic changes in society, technology and culture have transformed the relationship between political parties, the media, and the individual voter over the last fifty years. The leading researchers
The measurement of party identification in Britain: Where do we stand now
Labour and liberal democrat relations after 7 June 2001
Partisanship, Performance and Personality: Competing and Complementary Characterizations of the 2001 British General Election
The study of voting behaviour is characterized by controversy about the `importance' of various explanatory themes and specific variables, but there is a widespread reluctance to assess these hypotheses in a comprehensive causal model. This article specifies a model of Labour and Conservative voting in the 2001 British General Election which incorporates a whole series of competing and complementary hypotheses. The results suggest that partisansh…
Measuring party identification: An Exploratory Study With Focus Groups
The general election in Britain, June 2001
Election studies: What's Their Use
Elihu Katz and Yael Warshel (eds) Boulder: Westview Press, 2001. 285 pp.; £30.50, pbk, ISBN 0 8133 6635 6
Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters
Most models assume that voting behaviour can be summarised by a single additive equation. There are good reasons, however, for believing that some voters place more weight on some considerations than others or use different decision rules. In both cases, a single additive equation will produce misleading accounts of the causal processes. Modellers should therefore allow for such differences. In order to illustrate these propositions, I examine ev…
The Moving Centre: Preferences for Government Activity in Britain, 1950–2005
The political ‘centre’ is often discussed in debates about public policy and analyses of party strategies and election outcomes. Yet, to date, there has been little effort to estimate the political centre outside the United States. This article outlines a method of estimating the political centre using public opinion data collected for the period between 1950 and 2005. It is demonstrated that it is possible to measure the centre in Britain, that …
Telling more than they can know? Does the most important issue really reveal what is most important to voters
Rules, Strategies and Words: The Content of the 2010 Prime Ministerial Debates
This article investigates the verbal content of the 2010 prime ministerial debates using computer-aided text analysis (CATA) and functional analysis. It seeks to provide reliable measures of what the leaders said, develop our theoretical understanding of televised debates in British elections, open up the 2010 debates for potential comparison with others, and provide additional evidence by which the democratic value of the debates might be assess…
Finding a niche? Challenger parties and issue emphasis in the 2015 televised leaders’ debates
Do leaders of ‘challenger’ parties adopt a ‘niche’ strategy in national televised debates? This article answers this question by analysing the content of the two multiparty televised leaders’ debates that took place ahead of the 2015 British general election. Using computer-aided text analysis (CATA), it provides reliable and valid measures of what the leaders said in both debates and develops our theoretical understanding of how challenger-party…
The local roots of the participation gap: Inequality and voter turnout
It is generally accepted that the rich are more likely to participate in politics than the poor. It is also generally accepted that the probability than an individual will participate in elections is influenced by the gap between the rich and the poor. There is little agreement, however, about whether inequality across time and space increases or decreases participation. In this paper we examine the impact of inequality across space. We suggest t…
Policy accommodation versus electoral turnover: Policy representation in Britain, 1945–2015
Does public policy in the United Kingdom respond to changes in public preferences? If so, is this the result of the government changing its policy to reflect preferences (“policy accommodation”) or the result of governments that pursue unpopular policies being replaced at elections by governments more in line with the public (“electoral turnover”)? We explore these questions by estimating annual aggregate public preferences (“the policy mood”) us…
Parallel lines? Policy mood in a plurinational democracy
Political science (22 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (20 works) · Law (18 works) · Politics (18 works) · Law (17 works) · Economics (14 works) · Computer Science (12 works) · Sociology (12 works) · Political economy (11 works) · Political and Economic history of UK and US (8 works)