Mathieu Turgeon
Biographic Data
| ID | 991809 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Mathieu Turgeon |
| GIVEN NAMES | Mathieu |
| FAMILY NAME | Turgeon |
| SIGNATURE | TURGEON M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Universidade de Brasília |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0134-4027 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 37 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 222 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 37 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2002 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
The Conflicting Cue Effect: Confusing Messages and the Limits of Elite Influence in Brazil’s Covid-19 Vaccination Campaign
How do citizens respond when political leaders and their governments send conflicting messages during a public health crisis? We conducted a survey-based information experiment with 857 unvaccinated Brazilians in March 2021, shortly after the start of the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. Participants were randomly exposed to cues about two vaccines—Coronavac and Astrazeneca—emphasizing their country of origin, regulatory approval, and federal gover…
Episodes of sustained protest: Temporal patterns of online mobilization on X
The rise of social media has allowed the rapid manifestation of collective actions that are both large in scale and persist over extended periods of time. Yet, little is known about how the mobilization strategies within protests vary over time. By drawing on literature on online mobilization patterns, the concept of cycles of contention and Resource Mobilization Theory, we develop and test a theoretical framework of the development of protest co…
The multidimensional structure of risk: How dread and controllability shape attitudes toward artificial intelligence
Do Political Endorsements Affect Support for Conspiracy Theories
Objectives This article examines how support for conspiracy theories is affected by political endorsement. By relying on the literature on partisan cues and the role of political identity (partisan or ideological) in shaping people's attitudes and behaviors, we argue that endorsement of conspiracy theories by political elites convergent (divergent) with one's political identity should increase (decrease) belief in said conspiracy theories. Method…
Institutional change and partisanship in the Canadian Senate
The Canadian Senate was originally designed to act as an independent check on the House of Commons but over time, rampant and increasing partisanship rendered the Senate illegitimate in the eyes of the public. In 2014, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau tried to reverse these trends by expelling all Liberal Senators from his party in hopes of reducing partisanship and restoring the Senate to its original, independent function. To what extent did this …
Loyalties and interests: How political motivations influence voters’ responses to scandals
Electoral Accountability in a Multilevel Governance Context: Economic Voting and Gubernatorial Support in Latin America
We know a great deal about how individual and institutional factors combine to explain economic voting in well-established democracies, but much less is known about these dynamics in younger democracies and even less so in subnational contexts. Using survey and fiscal data from four federal Latin American countries and adopting a multilevel estimation strategy, we examine voters’ ability to blame and reward governors for the state of the economy …
Am I obliged to vote? A regression discontinuity analysis of compulsory voting with ill-informed voters
We study the impact of compulsory voting in Brazil, where voting is mandatory from age 18 to 70 and voluntary for those aged 16, 17 and 70+. Using a survey sample of 8008 respondents, we document voter confusion about how the age criterion applies. Some people falsely believe that what matters is one's age in an election year rather than on Election Day. Next, we perform a regression discontinuity (RD) analysis of compulsory voting among young vo…
Against all Odds: Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections in times of political disruption
When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Bra…
Which Historical Forecast Model Performs Best? An Analysis of 1965–2017 French Presidential Elections
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Comparative Public Opinion
Prejudice, Political Ideology, and Interest: Understanding Attitudes Toward Affirmative Action in Brazil
Few public policies have been as consequential or divisive as affirmative action. Proponents have argued for the need for equity and the redress of past and present discrimination, whereas opponents enlist claims over individual liberty and merit. Scholars have examined support to affirmative action, asking to what extent citizens' support is shaped by their political ideology, interest, prejudice, or some combination thereof. Much work to date h…
Viés noticioso e exposição seletiva nos telejornais brasileiros durante a pandemia de Covid-19
Este artigo investiga a ocorrência da exposição seletiva no Brasil, tendo em vista a frequência com que os brasileiros disseram buscar informações sobre a pandemia de COVID-19 no Jornal Nacional e no Jornal da Record. Utiliza dados de uma análise de conteúdo da cobertura desses veículos acerca do assunto em 2020 e os dados de uma pesquisa de opinião pública nacional. As análises realizadas mostram que o partidarismo e a religião foram importantes…
Political Preferences, Knowledge, and Misinformation About Covid-19: The Case of Brazil
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast research agenda focusing on how citizens acquire knowledge about the virus and the health expert guidelines to protect themselves and their close ones against it. While many countries and regions have been accounted for, there still remains a substantial gap with respect to public opinion about the virus in Latin America, most notably in Brazil, which currently has the second highest in number of fatalities…
Polling in New Democracies and Electoral Malpractice: The Case of Brazil
In many developing democracies, polling often comes with elevated levels of bias and variance. We argue that electoral malpractice can be one reason why. We build a theory and test it with data from elections between 2002 and 2014 in Brazil. We find that polling errors are larger in: (a) elections with many undecided voters and large imbalances in financial resources among campaigns; (b) the poorer Northeast region of Brazil, which is more closel…
Electoral incentives to coalition formation in multiparty presidential systems
Coalition theories of presidential regimes have frequently assumed that coalition formation is a mostly post-electoral phenomenon. We challenge this view by showing that pre-electoral bargaining shapes to a substantial extent minority presidents’ disposition to cooperate with the legislature by forming a majority cabinet. Examining a dataset of pre- and post-electoral coalitions from 18 Latin American countries, we find that majority coalition ca…
Ação afirmativa e desejabilidade social
As políticas de ação afirmativa implementadas nas universidades públicas no Brasil abrangem três principais grupos: alunos de escolas públicas, alunos de baixa renda e alunos negros e indígenas. Opiniões sobre essa modalidade de política de ação afirmativa mais ampla, especialmente se mensuradas por perguntas diretas, podem ser enviesadas por um efeito de desejabilidade social. Este artigo procura entender se atitudes sobre diferentes tipos de po…
Random votes under compulsory voting: Evidence from Brazil
Dual ballot effects on French presidential vote choice
Presidential coattails in coalitional presidentialism
Research on presidential coattails in elections has focused nearly exclusively on two-party systems like the United States. Much less is known, however, about presidential coattails in multiparty systems where electoral and governing coalitions are common currency. Under coalitional presidentialism, we argue that presidential coattails are diffused, benefiting the president’s party but also her coalition party members, especially those most stron…
E se soubéssemos mais? Simulando os votos e as opiniões dos eleitores mais informados no Brasil
Introdução Décadas de pesquisas sobre a opinião pública demonstraram que a maioria das pessoas é altamente desinformada a respeito da política. Entretanto, as consequências dessa desinformação sobre o comportamento eleitoral e sobre as atitudes dos cidadãos ainda parecem pouco claras, especialmente quando se trata de jovens democracias. Métodos Neste artigo, utilizamos simulações estatísticas de um eleitorado “completamente informado” a partir de…
Institutions and attribution of responsibility outside the electoral context: A look at French semi-presidentialism
Some institutional arrangements may be undesirable for democracy by obscuring which political actors are to be held responsible for failed or successful policies and bad or good macroeconomic performances. Much of the work in the area has focused on whether institutions affect the ‘clarity of political responsibility’ and the ability of voters to punish or reward, in turn, governments and elected officials. Not much has been said, however, about …
A Psicologia Política das Classes Sociais no Brasil: Atributos das Atitudes Políticas por Estratificação e Mobilidade Social
Neste artigo são testadas diferentes hipóteses derivadas da literatura especializada nacional e internacional sobre o efeito da estratificação e mobilidade social nas atitudes políticas e seus atributos no Brasil. São usados dados do Barômetro das Américas, rodada de 2012, pesquisa de opinião pública domiciliar com amostra representativa da população brasileira. Ao articular a literatura sobre classes sociais com a de psicologia política, o artig…
Mecanismos de difusão de políticas sociais no Brasil: Uma análise do Programa Saúde da Família
Nas últimas décadas, os estudos de difusão de políticas têm recebido grande atenção, especialmente nos EUA e na Europa. Estas pesquisas identificaram o papel dos fatores internos (características endógenas) e externos (características exógenas) para explicar fenômenos de difusão de inovações políticas. Os eventos de difusão, no entanto, também estão proximamente relacionados à questão temporal haja vista que muitas vezes as adoções ocorrem devido…
French popularity functions: Different measures, different determinants
How good are voters at sorting out the weakest candidate in their constituency
Presidential coattails in coalitional presidentialism
Research on presidential coattails in elections has focused nearly exclusively on two-party systems like the United States. Much less is known, however, about presidential coattails in multiparty systems where electoral and governing coalitions are common currency. Under coalitional presidentialism, we argue that presidential coattails are diffused, benefiting the president’s party but also her coalition party members, especially those most stron…
Which Matters Most? Comparing the Impact of Issues and the Economy in American, British and Canadian Elections
The objective of this study is to assess and compare the relative impact of issues and the economy on the vote in democratic elections. There is a rich and vast literature dealing with issue voting and an equally impressive literature concerning economic voting. For the most part, however, these amount to two separate streams of research. Relatively little attention has been paid to where these literatures overlap and less still to the simple but…
Ideologia e comportamento político no eleitorado brasileiro
Este artigo aborda o papel das ideologias esquerda edireita sobre o comportamento político do eleitorado brasileiro, com foco na constrição que essas ideologias devem gerar sobre suas preferências políticas. Em outras palavras, avalia se o eleitor estrutura suas atitudes políticas em consonância com a ideologia de que diz ser adepto. Usando dados de survey do Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro (Eseb), os achados indicam que parte significativa do eleito…
Electoral incentives to coalition formation in multiparty presidential systems
Coalition theories of presidential regimes have frequently assumed that coalition formation is a mostly post-electoral phenomenon. We challenge this view by showing that pre-electoral bargaining shapes to a substantial extent minority presidents’ disposition to cooperate with the legislature by forming a majority cabinet. Examining a dataset of pre- and post-electoral coalitions from 18 Latin American countries, we find that majority coalition ca…
The Partisan Impact of Congressional Redistricting: The Case of Texas, 2001–2003
Objective. In this article we assess the partisan effects of five plans proposed by Republican state legislators during Texas' 2003 congressional redistricting. Methods. Using the JudgeIt statistical program developed by Gelman and King (2001) , and data provided by the Texas Legislative Council, we assess the bias, responsiveness, and the probability that the Democratic Party wins each district for each plan. Results. All five Republican plans, …
Random votes under compulsory voting: Evidence from Brazil
Mecanismos de difusão de políticas sociais no Brasil: Uma análise do Programa Saúde da Família
Nas últimas décadas, os estudos de difusão de políticas têm recebido grande atenção, especialmente nos EUA e na Europa. Estas pesquisas identificaram o papel dos fatores internos (características endógenas) e externos (características exógenas) para explicar fenômenos de difusão de inovações políticas. Os eventos de difusão, no entanto, também estão proximamente relacionados à questão temporal haja vista que muitas vezes as adoções ocorrem devido…
Informação política e atitudes sobre gastos governamentais e impostos no Brasil: Evidências a Partir De Um Experimento De Opinião Pública
Não é novidade que o cidadão brasileiro, como outros vivendo em países democráticos, em média sabem pouco sobre seus governos e sobre as orientações ideológicas da maioria dos candidatos e partidos políticos. No entanto, poucos pesquisadores estudaram de maneira sistemática as conseqüências da falta de informação política para a vida democrática. Segundo alguns, a falta de informação afeta de maneira importante as atitudes políticas dos eleitores…
Just Thinking: Attitude Development, Public Opinion, and Political Representation
Political Preferences, Knowledge, and Misinformation About Covid-19: The Case of Brazil
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast research agenda focusing on how citizens acquire knowledge about the virus and the health expert guidelines to protect themselves and their close ones against it. While many countries and regions have been accounted for, there still remains a substantial gap with respect to public opinion about the virus in Latin America, most notably in Brazil, which currently has the second highest in number of fatalities…
Deliberation from Within: Changing One's Mind During an Interview
This article examines whether a public opinion survey can improve the quality of political attitudes. More specifically, we argue that simply positioning a summary attitudinal question after a balanced series of relevant items can increase people's ability to answer in a way that better reflects their underlying interests, values, and predispositions. By manipulating the location of the vote preference question in two separate national election c…
Am I obliged to vote? A regression discontinuity analysis of compulsory voting with ill-informed voters
We study the impact of compulsory voting in Brazil, where voting is mandatory from age 18 to 70 and voluntary for those aged 16, 17 and 70+. Using a survey sample of 8008 respondents, we document voter confusion about how the age criterion applies. Some people falsely believe that what matters is one's age in an election year rather than on Election Day. Next, we perform a regression discontinuity (RD) analysis of compulsory voting among young vo…
Institutions and attribution of responsibility outside the electoral context: A look at French semi-presidentialism
Some institutional arrangements may be undesirable for democracy by obscuring which political actors are to be held responsible for failed or successful policies and bad or good macroeconomic performances. Much of the work in the area has focused on whether institutions affect the ‘clarity of political responsibility’ and the ability of voters to punish or reward, in turn, governments and elected officials. Not much has been said, however, about …
A Psicologia Política das Classes Sociais no Brasil: Atributos das Atitudes Políticas por Estratificação e Mobilidade Social
Neste artigo são testadas diferentes hipóteses derivadas da literatura especializada nacional e internacional sobre o efeito da estratificação e mobilidade social nas atitudes políticas e seus atributos no Brasil. São usados dados do Barômetro das Américas, rodada de 2012, pesquisa de opinião pública domiciliar com amostra representativa da população brasileira. Ao articular a literatura sobre classes sociais com a de psicologia política, o artig…
The Provision of Highways in Canada and the Federal Government
This article presents the role of the Canadian federal government in the provision of highways since 1867, describes the Canadian National Highway System, and presents 1989–1998 data on highway-related revenues and expenditures by the governments in both Canada and the United States. The article then examines why the Canadian federal government intervention on highways is incontestably smaller than that of the federal government in the United Sta…
Patrimony and French presidential vote choice: Evidence from the 2012 election
Políticas de ação afirmativa e o experimento de listas: O Caso Das Cotas Raciais Na Universidade Brasileira
Neste artigo adotamos uma metodologia de questionamento indireto para medir as opiniões de estudantes da UnB acerca do uso da cor/raça como um critério de admissão à Universidade. Partimos da hipótese de que opiniões sobre políticas afirmativas não são obtidas com confiabilidade em surveysconvencionais, pois o grupo não elegível ao benefício (no caso, os estudantes brancos) poderia ocultar uma resposta de oposição por receio de parecer preconceit…
Loyalties and interests: How political motivations influence voters’ responses to scandals
French popularity functions: Different measures, different determinants
Do Political Endorsements Affect Support for Conspiracy Theories
Objectives This article examines how support for conspiracy theories is affected by political endorsement. By relying on the literature on partisan cues and the role of political identity (partisan or ideological) in shaping people's attitudes and behaviors, we argue that endorsement of conspiracy theories by political elites convergent (divergent) with one's political identity should increase (decrease) belief in said conspiracy theories. Method…
Institutional change and partisanship in the Canadian Senate
The Canadian Senate was originally designed to act as an independent check on the House of Commons but over time, rampant and increasing partisanship rendered the Senate illegitimate in the eyes of the public. In 2014, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau tried to reverse these trends by expelling all Liberal Senators from his party in hopes of reducing partisanship and restoring the Senate to its original, independent function. To what extent did this …
Electoral Accountability in a Multilevel Governance Context: Economic Voting and Gubernatorial Support in Latin America
We know a great deal about how individual and institutional factors combine to explain economic voting in well-established democracies, but much less is known about these dynamics in younger democracies and even less so in subnational contexts. Using survey and fiscal data from four federal Latin American countries and adopting a multilevel estimation strategy, we examine voters’ ability to blame and reward governors for the state of the economy …
Which Historical Forecast Model Performs Best? An Analysis of 1965–2017 French Presidential Elections
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Prejudice, Political Ideology, and Interest: Understanding Attitudes Toward Affirmative Action in Brazil
Few public policies have been as consequential or divisive as affirmative action. Proponents have argued for the need for equity and the redress of past and present discrimination, whereas opponents enlist claims over individual liberty and merit. Scholars have examined support to affirmative action, asking to what extent citizens' support is shaped by their political ideology, interest, prejudice, or some combination thereof. Much work to date h…
The Provision of Highways in Canada and the Federal Government
This article presents the role of the Canadian federal government in the provision of highways since 1867, describes the Canadian National Highway System, and presents 1989–1998 data on highway-related revenues and expenditures by the governments in both Canada and the United States. The article then examines why the Canadian federal government intervention on highways is incontestably smaller than that of the federal government in the United Sta…
Which Matters Most? Comparing the Impact of Issues and the Economy in American, British and Canadian Elections
The objective of this study is to assess and compare the relative impact of issues and the economy on the vote in democratic elections. There is a rich and vast literature dealing with issue voting and an equally impressive literature concerning economic voting. For the most part, however, these amount to two separate streams of research. Relatively little attention has been paid to where these literatures overlap and less still to the simple but…
How good are voters at sorting out the weakest candidate in their constituency
The Partisan Impact of Congressional Redistricting: The Case of Texas, 2001–2003
Objective. In this article we assess the partisan effects of five plans proposed by Republican state legislators during Texas' 2003 congressional redistricting. Methods. Using the JudgeIt statistical program developed by Gelman and King (2001) , and data provided by the Texas Legislative Council, we assess the bias, responsiveness, and the probability that the Democratic Party wins each district for each plan. Results. All five Republican plans, …
Just Thinking: Attitude Development, Public Opinion, and Political Representation
A Matter of Distinction: Candidate Polarization and Information Processing in Election Campaigns
Because Republican and Democratic elites have polarized in recent decades, American voters increasingly face choices between candidates who hold divergent policy positions. Such a development has potential implications for the way voters process information during campaigns and choose between candidates on election day. Drawing on research in political psychology and using a nationally representative survey-experiment, we argue and find that leve…
Informação política e atitudes sobre gastos governamentais e impostos no Brasil: Evidências a Partir De Um Experimento De Opinião Pública
Não é novidade que o cidadão brasileiro, como outros vivendo em países democráticos, em média sabem pouco sobre seus governos e sobre as orientações ideológicas da maioria dos candidatos e partidos políticos. No entanto, poucos pesquisadores estudaram de maneira sistemática as conseqüências da falta de informação política para a vida democrática. Segundo alguns, a falta de informação afeta de maneira importante as atitudes políticas dos eleitores…
Deliberation from Within: Changing One's Mind During an Interview
This article examines whether a public opinion survey can improve the quality of political attitudes. More specifically, we argue that simply positioning a summary attitudinal question after a balanced series of relevant items can increase people's ability to answer in a way that better reflects their underlying interests, values, and predispositions. By manipulating the location of the vote preference question in two separate national election c…
Patrimony and French presidential vote choice: Evidence from the 2012 election
Políticas de ação afirmativa e o experimento de listas: O Caso Das Cotas Raciais Na Universidade Brasileira
Neste artigo adotamos uma metodologia de questionamento indireto para medir as opiniões de estudantes da UnB acerca do uso da cor/raça como um critério de admissão à Universidade. Partimos da hipótese de que opiniões sobre políticas afirmativas não são obtidas com confiabilidade em surveysconvencionais, pois o grupo não elegível ao benefício (no caso, os estudantes brancos) poderia ocultar uma resposta de oposição por receio de parecer preconceit…
French popularity functions: Different measures, different determinants
Rendición de cuentas en las democracias en desarrollo: El votante latinoamericano
En la actualidad existe un amplio conocimiento acerca del voto económico; conocimiento que, en general, proviene de democracias desarrolladas (Norteamérica y Europa Occidental). Existen trabajos relevantes sobre democracias con niveles de ingresos bajos, pero basados en estudios de casos con datos agregados. Trabajos que incorporen diferentes países y que utilicen encuestas con datos individuales son prácticamente inexistentes. A partir de encues…
Ideologia e comportamento político no eleitorado brasileiro
Este artigo aborda o papel das ideologias esquerda edireita sobre o comportamento político do eleitorado brasileiro, com foco na constrição que essas ideologias devem gerar sobre suas preferências políticas. Em outras palavras, avalia se o eleitor estrutura suas atitudes políticas em consonância com a ideologia de que diz ser adepto. Usando dados de survey do Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro (Eseb), os achados indicam que parte significativa do eleito…
A Psicologia Política das Classes Sociais no Brasil: Atributos das Atitudes Políticas por Estratificação e Mobilidade Social
Neste artigo são testadas diferentes hipóteses derivadas da literatura especializada nacional e internacional sobre o efeito da estratificação e mobilidade social nas atitudes políticas e seus atributos no Brasil. São usados dados do Barômetro das Américas, rodada de 2012, pesquisa de opinião pública domiciliar com amostra representativa da população brasileira. Ao articular a literatura sobre classes sociais com a de psicologia política, o artig…
Mecanismos de difusão de políticas sociais no Brasil: Uma análise do Programa Saúde da Família
Nas últimas décadas, os estudos de difusão de políticas têm recebido grande atenção, especialmente nos EUA e na Europa. Estas pesquisas identificaram o papel dos fatores internos (características endógenas) e externos (características exógenas) para explicar fenômenos de difusão de inovações políticas. Os eventos de difusão, no entanto, também estão proximamente relacionados à questão temporal haja vista que muitas vezes as adoções ocorrem devido…
Institutions and attribution of responsibility outside the electoral context: A look at French semi-presidentialism
Some institutional arrangements may be undesirable for democracy by obscuring which political actors are to be held responsible for failed or successful policies and bad or good macroeconomic performances. Much of the work in the area has focused on whether institutions affect the ‘clarity of political responsibility’ and the ability of voters to punish or reward, in turn, governments and elected officials. Not much has been said, however, about …
E se soubéssemos mais? Simulando os votos e as opiniões dos eleitores mais informados no Brasil
Introdução Décadas de pesquisas sobre a opinião pública demonstraram que a maioria das pessoas é altamente desinformada a respeito da política. Entretanto, as consequências dessa desinformação sobre o comportamento eleitoral e sobre as atitudes dos cidadãos ainda parecem pouco claras, especialmente quando se trata de jovens democracias. Métodos Neste artigo, utilizamos simulações estatísticas de um eleitorado “completamente informado” a partir de…
Dual ballot effects on French presidential vote choice
Presidential coattails in coalitional presidentialism
Research on presidential coattails in elections has focused nearly exclusively on two-party systems like the United States. Much less is known, however, about presidential coattails in multiparty systems where electoral and governing coalitions are common currency. Under coalitional presidentialism, we argue that presidential coattails are diffused, benefiting the president’s party but also her coalition party members, especially those most stron…
Ação afirmativa e desejabilidade social
As políticas de ação afirmativa implementadas nas universidades públicas no Brasil abrangem três principais grupos: alunos de escolas públicas, alunos de baixa renda e alunos negros e indígenas. Opiniões sobre essa modalidade de política de ação afirmativa mais ampla, especialmente se mensuradas por perguntas diretas, podem ser enviesadas por um efeito de desejabilidade social. Este artigo procura entender se atitudes sobre diferentes tipos de po…
Random votes under compulsory voting: Evidence from Brazil
Political Preferences, Knowledge, and Misinformation About Covid-19: The Case of Brazil
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a vast research agenda focusing on how citizens acquire knowledge about the virus and the health expert guidelines to protect themselves and their close ones against it. While many countries and regions have been accounted for, there still remains a substantial gap with respect to public opinion about the virus in Latin America, most notably in Brazil, which currently has the second highest in number of fatalities…
Polling in New Democracies and Electoral Malpractice: The Case of Brazil
In many developing democracies, polling often comes with elevated levels of bias and variance. We argue that electoral malpractice can be one reason why. We build a theory and test it with data from elections between 2002 and 2014 in Brazil. We find that polling errors are larger in: (a) elections with many undecided voters and large imbalances in financial resources among campaigns; (b) the poorer Northeast region of Brazil, which is more closel…
Electoral incentives to coalition formation in multiparty presidential systems
Coalition theories of presidential regimes have frequently assumed that coalition formation is a mostly post-electoral phenomenon. We challenge this view by showing that pre-electoral bargaining shapes to a substantial extent minority presidents’ disposition to cooperate with the legislature by forming a majority cabinet. Examining a dataset of pre- and post-electoral coalitions from 18 Latin American countries, we find that majority coalition ca…
Against all Odds: Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections in times of political disruption
When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Bra…
Political science (33 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (23 works) · Politics (23 works) · Law (22 works) · Law (19 works) · Political economy (16 works) · Economics (15 works) · Social Media and Politics (12 works) · Sociology (12 works) · Voting (10 works)