A pretrial release policy based on risk assessment would reduce unnecessary incarceration, increase racial fairness, and save money

Dados Bibliográficos

ID12776922
AutoresJennifer L Skeem (0000-0002-6633-7779, University of California, Berkeley, autor correspondente), Lina Montoya (0000-0002-0975-4306, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), CHRISTOPHER T LOWENKAMP (United States Department of Justice)
Ano2026
Data de publicação2026-03-18
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoCriminology & Public Policy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1538-6473 • E-ISSN: 1745-9133
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/1745-9133.70015
OpenAlexW7139045967
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas53

Research Summary Pretrial reform is vital, as nearly 500,000 unconvicted people are held in U.S. jails while awaiting trial. Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) offer data‐driven identification of defendants who are unlikely to reoffend and can safely be released, yet face criticism from across the political spectrum—for potentially perpetuating racial bias or endangering public safety. Moreover, inconsistent judicial application undermines the effectiveness of RAIs. Using data on 146,841 federal defendants, we apply causal analyses with machine learning to estimate the effects of a policy that presumptively releases defendants classified as relatively low risk by the Pretrial Risk Assessment (PTRA). Compared to magistrate judges’ status quo decisions, this approach would reduce pretrial detention by 34.2% and increase successful community releases by 31.8%, with only a 1.6% rise in public safety risk. Black defendants would experience greater benefits (39.0% detention reduction vs. 27.3% for White defendants). Detention cost savings would be approximately $3.5 billion. Policy Implications Although the PTRA outperforms unstructured judgment, it should strongly guide rather than replace judicial discretion. The central challenge is structuring judgment in pretrial decision making. As an initial step, the federal system should expand inclusion of PTRA risk estimates in pretrial reports beyond the current 15% of districts, implementing standardized reporting formats to ensure clear communication and consistent application. For greater impact, policy makers should consider a risk‐based presumptive release framework where defendants below a specified risk threshold are released unless magistrate judges identify specific statutory factors justifying detention. This approach addresses inconsistent RAI application while preserving judicial authority. Implementation will require investment in trust‐building and practice fidelity, but structuring pretrial decisions around validated risk measures promises to enhance fairness, reduce costs, and maintain public safety—outcomes with broad political appeal

Blame · Criminal justice · Discretion · Identification (biology · Judicial review · Magistrate · Recidivism · Risk assessment · Status quo · Statutory law · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Education Discipline and Inequality · Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending