Are risk assessment tools more accurate than unstructured judgments in predicting violent, any, and sexual offending? A meta‐analysis of direct comparison studies
Dados Bibliográficos
We conducted a pre‐registered meta‐analysis of studies that directly compared the predictive validity of risk assessment tools to unstructured judgments of risk for violent, any, or sexual offending. A total of 31 studies, containing 169 effect sizes from 45,673 risk judgments, met inclusion criteria. Based on the results of three‐level mixed‐effects meta‐regression models, the predictive validity of total scores on risk assessment tools was significantly higher than that of unstructured judgments for predictions of violent, any, and sexual offending. Tools continued to outperform unstructured judgments after accounting for risk of bias. This finding was also robust to variations in population, assessment context, and outcome measurement. Although this meta‐analysis provides support for the use of risk assessment tools, it also highlights limitations and gaps that future research should address
Computer security · Injury prevention · Medical emergency · Meta-analysis · Occupational safety and health · Poison control · Risk assessment · Suicide prevention · Clinical Psychology · Computer Science · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Human Factors and Ergonomics · Medicine · Psychology · Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
The Yasi in Juvenile Court
The Tree of Life Synagogue Attack
Normative Data, Predictive Validity, and Factor Structure of a Fourth-Generation Risk Assessment Tool (Orac-PCQ) in a Population of Adjudicated Individuals Serving Short Sentences in the Province of Québec (Canada)
Sexuality Knowledge Assessment Questionnaire (Sekaq)
A pretrial release policy based on risk assessment would reduce unnecessary incarceration, increase racial fairness, and save money
Misconceptions about intimate partner violence risk assessment algorithm in the Basque Country
Risk assessment tools used at the policing stage for health and crime outcomes
The Psychology of Criminal Conduct
Clinical versus statistical prediction
Introduction to Meta‐Analysis
The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (Sara) Guide
A Brief Actuarial Assessment for the Prediction of Wife Assault Recidivism
The Role of Google Scholar in Evidence Reviews and Its Applicability to Grey Literature Searching
Fitting three-level meta-analytic models in R
The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders
Contour-enhanced meta-analysis funnel plots help distinguish publication bias from other causes of asymmetry
The Meaningfulness of Effect Sizes in Psychological Research
Amstar 2
Meta-regression approximations to reduce publication selection bias
Modeling dependent effect sizes with three-level meta-analyses
Robis
Fixed effects and variance components estimation in three-level meta-analysis
The cost of dichotomising continuous variables
Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies
Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
What five decades of research tells us about the effects of youth psychological therapy
Correcting for Bias in Psychology
Three-level meta-analysis of dependent effect sizes
Bias and Efficiency of Meta-Analytic Variance Estimators in the Random-Effects Model
Guidelines, criteria, and rules of thumb for evaluating normed and standardized assessment instruments in psychology.
Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test
The Measurement of Observer Agreement for Categorical Data
Evaluating Effect Size in Psychological Research
Conducting Meta-Analyses in R with the metafor Package
Predictive Validity of Pretrial Risk Assessments
Racist Algorithms or Systemic Problems? Risk Assessments and Racial Disparities
A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales
Handbook of Violence Risk Assessment
Violent offenders
Set Correlation As A General Multivariate Data-Analytic Method
A systematic review of algorithm aversion in augmented decision making
The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing
Current U.S. Agency-Level Trends in Supporting Implementation of Evidence-Based Practices in Parole
The cognitive underpinnings of bias in forensic mental health evaluations
The Savry Improves Prediction of Reoffending
Predicting Violent Behavior
The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project
Interpreting the magnitudes of correlation coefficients
Journal article reporting standards for quantitative research in psychology
Validity of psychological assessment
When Politicization Stops Algorithms in Criminal Justice
Sex Offenders Emerging from Long-Term Imprisonment. A Study of Their Long-term Reconviction Rates and of Parole Board Members' Judgements of Their Risk
The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders
A manifesto for reproducible science
The efficacy of violence prediction
| Obras citantes distintas | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 7 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 7 |