Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10970263 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stanley K Smith (University of Florida, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1986 |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 127-135 |
| Publication date | 1986-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2061413 |
| PMID | 3956802 |
| OpenAlex | W2054333196 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 10 |
| References cited | 5 |
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth
Cohort · Component (thermodynamics · Demographic analysis · Econometrics · Geography · Internal migration · Population · Population growth · Population projection · Projections of population growth · Research methodology · Statistics · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
Requiem for the Net Migrant
Who Is At Risk of Migrating? Developing Synthetic Populations to Produce Efficient Domestic Migration Rates Using the American Community Survey
Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Evaluating Alternative Migration Estimation Techniques for Population Estimates and Projections
Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts
An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada
Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model
An evaluation of population projections by age
Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections
| Unique citing works | 10 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,28 |
| Citation span | 1990 - 2023 (34) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 10 |