Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets

Bibliographic Data

ID11079678
AuthorsMatí­as Busso (0000-0001-5632-9129, Inter-American Development Bank, corresponding author), Juan Pablo Chauvin (0000-0001-8624-8821, Inter-American Development Bank, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume146
Pages103739
Publication date2025-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Urban Economics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0094-1190 • E-ISSN: 1095-9068
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.jue.2025.103739
OpenAlexW4407167915
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited38

This paper explores the effects of weather-induced rural–urban migration on labor and housing market outcomes of urban residents in Brazil. In order to identify causal effects, it uses weather shocks to the rural municipalities of origin of migrants. We show that larger migration shocks led to an increase in employment growth and a reduction in wage growth of 4 and 5 percent, respectively. The increased migration flows also affected the housing market in destination cities. On average, it led to 4 percent faster growth of the housing stock, accompanied by 6 percent faster growth in housing rents. These effects vary sharply by housing quality. We find a substantial positive effect on the growth rates of the most penurious housing units (with no effect on rents) and a negative effect on the growth of housing units in the next quality tier (with a positive effect on rents). This suggests that rural immigration growth slowed down housing-quality upgrading in destination cities

Business · Economics · Labour economics · Term (time · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies

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