Natural hazard information and migration across cities

Evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

Bibliographic Data

ID11387362
AuthorsMichio Naoi (0000-0002-5088-2828, Keio University, corresponding author), Keiichi Sato (0000-0002-6108-7037, Senshu University), Yozo Tanaka (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism), Hiroko Matsuura (0000-0003-2332-1176, Shoin University), Hiroaki Matsuura, Shingo Nagamatsu (0000-0001-8862-6064, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)
Year2020
Volume41
Issue4
Pages452-479
Publication date2020-06-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation and Environment (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0199-0039 • E-ISSN: 1573-7810
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6
OpenAlexW2755020337
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited27

This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions

Economics · Geography · Hazard · Meteorology · Natural hazard · Seismology · Trough (economics · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Disaster Management and Resilience · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology

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